Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Refined Coconut Oil Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Refined Coconut Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend for the Q4 of 2024

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Asia

In Q4 of 2024, the prices of refined coconut oil in Asia experienced an upward trend. Malaysia and the Philippines faced supply issues due to the limited availability of copra. Severe weather conditions and unusual phenomena such as El Nino significantly impacted coconut yields in key growing regions. For the Philippines, the refined coconut oil price was around 1326 USD/MT (EXW) in October and increased to around 1335 USD/MT in December 2024.
 

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In Malaysia, the overall pricing outlook was positive for most of Q4, though the market was relatively more consolidated in the first half of the quarter. The monthly average prices (EXW) in the Malaysian refined coconut oil market rose from about 1222 USD/MT in October to around 1235 USD/MT in December 2024. The export market thrived as demand grew for vegetarian and vegan food options. Overall, the refined coconut oil price curve showed growth in the last quarter of 2024.

Europe

Europe saw a steady rise in prices for refined coconut oil as markets struggled to compete with limited supply from Asia. The European market was heavily reliant on imports, causing refined coconut oil prices in Europe to mirror the trends in Asia. A supply crunch in major exporting countries like the Philippines and Malaysia led to a slight increase in refined coconut oil prices in Europe.

The rising demand for sustainable, plant-based alternatives, particularly from the food processing and cosmetics sectors, further supported the price increase. However, importers remained cautious in their procurement, as rising prices and other constricting factors were narrowing profit margins.

North America

Refined coconut oil prices experienced a moderate upward trend in North America during the last quarter of 2024, reflecting the trends seen in the Asian and European markets. Reduced imports from Asian countries and declining inventories further supported the rise in prices. Despite this, demand remained stable, with strong demand from the food products and personal care sectors contributing to the upward movement of the refined coconut oil price curve.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, moving forward, the refined coconut oil price trajectory is expected to show moderate increases in the upcoming months driven by current supply and demand dynamics.
 

Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

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Asia

The prices of refined coconut oil followed an upward trajectory during the third quarter of 2024, marked by significant volatility. Disruptions in the supply of feedstock, particularly coconut, contributed to this fluctuation. Reduced yields due to severe weather conditions, such as El Niño, combined with increased demand, led to a surge in coconut prices. This made it more difficult for downstream industries, including coconut oil enterprises, to secure raw materials.

In the Philippines, prices rose from around 1253 USD/MT (EXW) in July to approximately 1302 USD/MT (EXW) in September. Cuts in production, coupled with smaller coconuts, made it challenging for refiners to extract oil. Similarly, in Indonesia, prices increased from around 1083 USD/MT (EXW) in July to approximately 1123 USD/MT (EXW) in September. The region faced reduced feedstock availability as direct purchases by Chinese buyers from local farmers destabilized local markets, leading to price hikes and delayed shipments. Overall, the quarter was marked by elevated prices of refined coconut oil.

Europe

The prices of refined coconut oil mirrored the trends in the Asian market throughout the third quarter of 2024. Unlike other edible oils, which experienced a decline during the summer months due to low demand, the prices of refined coconut oil surged. The prices remained elevated in the region due to ongoing supply shortages, which made sourcing feedstocks more challenging.

North America

The North American markets followed similar trends to other global markets during Q3'24. As major exporting countries of refined coconut oil faced challenges, prices in the region rose due to inflated import costs. Additionally, a gap between supply and demand, driven by the scarcity of feedstocks, further contributed to the price increase.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of Refined Coconut Oil will continue to show upward movements in the upcoming quarter until the supply of the feedstock normalizes in the market. However, some price softening may occur by the end of the year as businesses diversify and secure their supplies.
 

Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

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Asia

Asia accounts for the most coconut-producing and exporting countries in the world; therefore, the price transitions here dictate the global coconut markets. During the first half of the year 2024, refined coconut oil prices were found raging for the entire span of six months. Coconut production in India has been reduced primarily due to the adverse impacts of climate change, notably severe heatwaves and high temperatures that have led to water scarcity and disrupted irrigation systems. These extreme weather conditions have caused crop wilting, lower quality yields, and increased pest populations.

Additionally, environmental stress has accelerated the maturation of coconuts. Following an inclined price trajectory, the average prices in the Philippines averaged around 1265 USD/MT (EXW) in June’24. Similarly, in the Indonesian refined coconut oil market a shift from about 1011 USD/MT (EXW) to around 1090 USD/MT (EXW) over the concerned timeframe. These price transitions did incorporate some reverse fluctuations as well; however, the overall market inclination was largely positive around this time.

Europe

Since Asian coconut oil exports dictate the global refined coconut oil market, the trend in European markets was also found to reflect the oscillations of the Asian markets. The downstream demands in the European markets were quite steady and regular, with not much surprise. However, the available supplies and logistical disruptions emerged as the biggest price drivers for the European refined coconut oil markets.

Since the pirate issues erupted in the Red Sea with frequent Houthi attacks on carriage shipments, the freight charges surged up, on top of that, the limited availability of coconut and associated products at the source locations further complicated the regional trade scenario. Overall, the trend exhibited variations for the European market; after a soft start, prices picked up as the first quarter came to an end. However, with steady normalization in the demand outlook, the second quarter closed on a relatively stable note.

North America

The refined coconut oil witnessed a varying price pattern in the North American markets; the prices had a slow start in the region as the downstream demands were sluggish during the peak winter months. As time progressed, the downstream demands also started improving along with that, the price curve also started inclining steadily.

At one point, the various geopolitical and other trade-related disruptions really affected the overall pricing outlook. However, as the second quarter neared conclusion, the markets started stabilizing again. With these oscillating movements, the downstream demands remained the key market driver. Overall, mixed market sentiments were witnessed in H1’24.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Refined Coconut Oil prices are expected to normalize in the global markets going forward. The supply and demand outlooks are looking more conducive.
 

Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

Owing to the steady rise in downstream industry consumption rates, the refined coconut oil market started the third quarter on a positive note. As a result, the price of Indonesian refined coconut oil increased during that time. Nevertheless, a subsequent downturn was noted as purchases by the consumer sector steadily slowed down.

Global logistical issues, such as shifting transportation prices and the emergence of less expensive substitutes, further complicated the dynamics of the industry. Notwithstanding these obstacles, the market for refined coconut oil concluded the year on a good note in terms of production costs. Malaysia, on the other hand, showed tenacity, seeing little fluctuation and only a minor decline in averages.

Europe

In the third quarter of 2023, European traders witnessed a notable increase in refined coconut oil price trends. This uptick was driven by exponentially rising demand from domestic consumers, boosting sentiments of refined coconut oil prices. However, producers faced challenges from adverse weather conditions, including sudden floods and erratic rainfall patterns, which reduced agricultural output and constrained material availability in the market. Nonetheless, market dynamics shifted in the fourth quarter due to the fragile state of the global economy and an excess of overseas imports.

North America

The interplay between the trading sector, demand, and production rates had a significant impact on the price trend of refined coconut oil in the third and fourth quarters of 2023. Prices for refined coconut oil rose in the third quarter due to a combination of a rise in export margins and increasing consumer demand.

The gap between supply and demand was also increased by an increase in bulk orders and the scarcity of raw materials, which contributed to the price trend upward. But by the end of the fourth quarter, stockpiles had grown, upending the fundamentals of the market for refined coconut oil.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Refined Coconut Oil is estimated to incline further as the limited production and rise in demand will widen the gap between supply and demand sectors of the market.
 

Refined Coconut Oil Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

In the Asia-Pacific, the prices of refined coconut oil oscillated amid the uneven trend in demand from the downstream sector in the first quarter. The rise in stockpiles aided by high production rates only resulted in the downfall in the prices of refined coconut oil. In the second quarter, too, the falling cost of crude oil, the pressure of rising inventory levels, and slow demand from the consumer sector challenged the growth of the refined coconut oil price trend.

Europe

The first quarter of 2023 in European countries was similar to what was observed in Asia Pacific. The rise in production rates amid low demand led to the southward movement of refined coconut oil prices in the first half of the first quarter. The trend stabilized a little towards the end phase as the removal of export limitations benefited the momentum of refined coconut oil prices. This growth phase was short-lived as higher stockpiles and low demand affected the second-quarter price trend of refined coconut oil negatively.

North America

In North America, the downstream industries such as food and cosmetics showcased a mixed demand trend. The first half of the first quarter enjoyed inflation in food prices due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and disruptions in the supply chains, but the second half struggled with the rise in number of stockpiles. The momentum continued to plunge in the second quarter, too, due to weak support from the export rates and a fall in the prices of corn, edible oils, and other grains.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Refined Coconut Oil is estimated to struggle with high production rates and lower demand, which will likely result in an imbalance between supply-demand dynamics.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Refined Coconut Oil. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.