Refined Sugar Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Refined Sugar in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Refined Sugar Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Amidst surging demands and decreased productivity, the Asian Refined Sugar market observed bullish price trend in the first two quarters of the year 2023. As sugarcane is a water-intensive crop, disturbed rain cycles across producing regions affected the crop yields severely. In the International market, Sugar prices reached an 11-year high within months. Overall, the price trend saw sharp inclines. In the Chinese domestic market, the prices of Refined Sugar went from about 842 USD/MT (Spot FD ) in January’23 to about 1004 USD/MT (Spot FD) in June’23, registering an approximate hike of about 19%.

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South America

In the South American region, Brazil is one of the world’s leading sugar producers, so the prices and production situation here also influences the global markets. As the adverse weather conditions affected the crop yields, Brazil tried to control the domestic sugar prices, and as a result, the spot prices averaged about 616 USD/MT in the first quarter of 2023. However, the market could not remain stable for long, and global shortages started impacting the domestic market; a sharp rise of about 20% was observed within the second quarter, closing the Refined Sugar market at an average spot price of about 727 USD/MT in June 2023.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Refined Sugar are expected to continue rising since climate change and disturbed rain cycles appear to be lasting problems.

Refined Sugar Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Asian Refined Sugar market experienced mixed price trend throughout the said period of H2 2022. As sugarcane production tumbled significantly, the inventories were being extensively utilized. Since sugar is a high-demand commodity, authorities tried to control the prices from reaching astounding highs.

Europe

Following the global rising trend, the Refined Sugar prices exhibited bullish trend in the European market as well. Global sugar scarcity amidst rising demands created a supply deficit, but along with that, the mounting inflation in the European region was also responsible for such market trend. The supply chains and trade routes were all disrupted because of the Russia–Ukraine conflict; further, the high energy prices also pushed the prices up for commodities in general.

South America

In the South American region, Brazil determines a lot for Refined Sugar’s market behavior. Even though the curtailed supplies were a matter of concern, the inventory support, along with relatively high domestic production, helped manage the situation. The market had a strong start at the beginning of Q1; however, it tried to stabilize itself for the rest of the discussed period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with continuous supply constriction and uncertain demands, the price trend for Refined Sugar are likely to fluctuate.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In Thailand, export prices of sugar rose in April amid rising crude oil prices as a consequence of Ukraine-Russia conflict. The rise in fertilizer prices also squeezed profits and in turn contributed to the price rise for sugar.

Europe

In the last week of May 2022, sugar prices in Europe hit record high values of 717.7 USD/MT due to low supply and high demand in the market. This low supply was a result of low production in Brazil even though India, the second largest sugar exporter promised to export 10 million tonnes.

North America

In the US, refined sugar prices peaked in April at 20.63 USD/lb. However, the prices later dropped in the second half of July when gasoline prices were cut down by Petrobras in Brazil, improving the sugar production and supply in the global market.

Latin America

In Brazil, sugar production dropped as more suppliers shifted to ethanol production to increase their profits which boosted sugar prices globally as supply was low in the market. In May 2022, the price of refined sugar in Brazil averaged at 3.51 BRL/kg in the domestic market.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The spot price of white granulated sugar on March 1 was 5,724 RMB/MT, up 4.45% year on year. The domestic spot market price had dropped to around the cost line of certain southern sugar producers, and there was little potential for further decrease. The early-stage conflict of over-concentration of supply was progressively reducing in the absence of worldwide sugar competition. With the passage of time, the domestic spot market's sales pressure began to ease.

North America

In January, spot refined cane sugar was being offered at 52 cents/lb FOB in the Northeast and West Coast, up 24% y-o-y, while beet sugar was priced at 42 cents/lb FOB Midwest, up 15%. 

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In India, during the month of October, S30 sugar rates from millers ranged from 3375 to 3440 INR/Quintal, while M30 rates ranged from 3490 to 3630 INR/Quintal. Sugar mills exported nearly 6.5 lakh tonne of sugar during the October-November period of the current 2021-22 season, up from 3 lakh tonne a year before.

Europe

Slightly lower refined sugar prices were observed in the fourth quarter of 2021 across the European Union region. The September EU average prices were close to 475 USD/MT. The prices were expected to remain stable with slight fluctuations during the quarter. Refined sugar prices in December were around 460 USD/MT.

North America

After reaching an all-time high value of 0.82USD/kg since 2014, refined sugar prices declined slightly during the fourth quarter of 2021. The November prices were 0.81USD/Kg and were expected to further decrease during the January month of 2022. However, during the year, US sugar prices are anticipated to increase by an easy 4% year on year, owing to government assistance measures and expected ample worldwide supply. Last year, the average retail refined sugar prices in the United States increased by 8% year over year to 68.4 cents a pound.

Latin America

Output in Brazil's critical Center-South area was forecast to equal 142,000MT in the second half of November, a 67% decrease from the same period a year ago. Reduced output was linked mostly to the region's second consecutive year of below-average rainfall, as well as frost and a lack of renewal in the planting area, all of which contributed to a decline in agricultural yield and cane crushed volume.

The ATR recovered sugar per tonne of sugarcane was also anticipated to decline to 131.3 kg/MT in H2 November from 146.38 kg/MT in H2 November 2020. While the volume decreased significantly year over year, the expectation remained within the five-year average of 134.64 kg/MT.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Indian sugar mills' interest in negotiating export contracts had declined as local prices increased and yielded higher profits. Domestic prices increased by around 9% to reach Rs 3,430/quintal ex-mill for S30 grade sugar, owing to high festive demand and a relatively empty pipeline. India's sugar production was estimated to be in demand this year, helping to keep global prices in control.

Europe

The average refined sugar prices during the first quarter of 2021 were recorded at 470 USD/MT and the prices were somewhat stable for the next two quarters. The price during the month of May was close to 480 USD/MT and by the end of September, the prices reached a value of 475 USD/MT.

North America

In the United States, sugar processors acquire, manufacture, and market raw and refined sugar made from beets and sugarcane. Increased sugar prices enable operators to sell it at a greater price, resulting in increased industry income. While prices were likely to grow in 2021, their unpredictability posed a danger to the sector. The January price of white sugar was 0.65USD/kg and the prices continuously increased for the next three quarters with a slight dip during the month of August. The price by the end of September was 0.79USD/kg.

Latin America

Cane supplies were already scarce owing to a severe drought wreaking havoc on Brazil's harvests. Crushing of cane decreased by 31% in the first half of April compared to the same period last year. At the time, sugar was still more profitable than ethanol in terms of exports in Brazil. The price was 0.69 USD/kg in Brazil during the month of March.

For the Year 2020

Asia

China's sugar imports from Vietnam were estimated to exceed USD 69.3 million in 2020, over 64 times the amount imported in 2019, as China had been expanding its imports to stockpile vital foods in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and flooding. Imported sugar increased significantly as a result of ATIGA's impact on Vietnam's sugar sector. Domestic prices were predicted to range between 10,000 and 12,500 VND/kg in 2020/21.

Since the beginning of June 2020, massive rains and severe flooding, the largest flood in China since 1998, have had a detrimental effect on the production, economics, and society of China's southern provinces (in the Yangtze delta area). Yunnan and Guangxi, two flood-affected provinces, account for almost 80% of the country's production in the 2019/20 crop year. Heavy rains between June and August had a detrimental effect on the sugarcane growing area.

Europe

On August 1, 2020, the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) entered into force, offering export potential for Vietnam's sugar sector. Refined sugar prices were 419 EUR/MT. According to USDA, the volume of sugar imported from the EU in the crop year 2020/21 was around 2.1 MMT, or approximately 11.3% of the region's consumption.

It was evaluated that Northwest and Mediterranean Europe delivered white sugar weekly prices at 539 EUR/MT and 520 EUR/MT, respectively, in the week to Aug. 20, up from 501 EUR/MT and 514 EUR/MT the previous week and returning to levels last seen in July and August of 2017.

The weekly increase in refined sugar prices in Northwest Europe was mostly due to higher prices in Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium, which were all evaluated 50 EUR/MT higher week on week, while French prices remained consistent following a rally earlier in the month. Increased refined sugar prices in Italy and Greece aided Mediterranean Europe, while Spanish prices remained unchanged week on week.

North America

Domestic output was expected to reach 9.1 MMT in 2020-21, an increase of 195,632 MT over the December prediction and an increase of 1 MMT over 2019-20. Imports to the United States increased to 2.4 MMT in 2020, up 2.4% from 2019. Supplies totaled $1.2 billion in value. Mexico (735,500 MT), Brazil (404,500 MT), and the Dominican Republic (212,500 MT) were the top three exporters of sugar to the United States, accounting for 57% of total imports.

Mexico ($423 million) is the greatest supplier of sugar to the United States in value terms, accounting for 34% of total imports. Brazil ($185 million) was ranked second in the list, accounting for 15% of total imports. The Dominican Republic came in second place with a 9.5% share.

In 2020, the average price of sugar imports was 525 USD/MT, up 1.6% from the previous year. Prices varied significantly by the nation of origin; Colombia had the highest price (850 USD/MT), while Guatemala had one of the lowest (422 USD/MT). In 2020, the Philippines had the highest rate of price rise, while the prices of the other major suppliers grew at a slower pace.

Latin America

Since February 14, when the WP closed at 322.70 BRL/MT, the premium paid for Brazilian refined sugar in the export market has increased by 117.64%. During the same time period, the premium for white sugar over raw traded on ICE NY11 futures increased about 60%, from 75.18 USD/MT to 120.26 USD/MT, a significant rise but not particularly significant for Brazilian producers.

The primary catalyst for the price increase was the rapid devaluation of the Brazilian real against the dollar, with the real reaching its lowest level in history at 5.84 BRL/USD, providing significant assistance for Brazilian exporters.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Refined Sugar. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.