USDA Rice Purchase Supports Prices
USDA announces a $21 million purchase of U.S. rice to ease farmer price pressures. The program is expected to support domestic prices amid high production costs and foreign competition.
Rice Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Market Insights, Price Drivers, Supply Demand Analysis & Latest News
Written ByShriya Singh
Rice Latest Development
Rice Price Trend Q3 2026
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | Vietnam | FOB | USD 393.57/MT | August 2026 |
| Rice | China | FOB | USD 423.49/MT | August 2026 |
| Rice | India | FOB | USD 398.76/MT | August 2026 |
| Rice | Brazil | FOB | USD 287.79/MT | August 2026 |
| Rice | USA | FOB | USD 242.99/MT | August 2026 |
| Rice | Vietnam | FOB | USD 396.10/MT | July 2026 |
| Rice | China | FOB | USD 423.40/MT | July 2026 |
| Rice | India | FOB | USD 411.30/MT | July 2026 |
| Rice | Brazil | FOB | USD 251.20/MT | July 2026 |
| Rice | USA | FOB | USD 245.13/MT | July 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Rice prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
Rice Price Trend H1 2026
- Global rice prices were mixed in H1’26, with Asia showing split movement as India’s ample supply capped gains, while Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan saw firmer export quotes.
- Upstream pressure came from fertilizer, fuel, freight, and insurance costs after the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption raised landed-cost risks for food importers.
- Downstream demand stayed firm from food security buying, public distribution needs, and import demand from Asia, Europe, and North America.
Asia
In Asia, rice prices exhibited a mixed trend during H1’26, reflecting divergent supply-demand dynamics across key exporting countries. India maintained relatively stable export prices, supported by ample domestic availability and strong production levels. In contrast, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan experienced firmer export pricing, driven by tighter supply conditions and sustained international demand. According to USDA estimates, India’s rice exports for 2026/27 are projected at 25.0 million MT, significantly exceeding Vietnam at 8.0 million MT, Thailand at 7.5 million MT, and Pakistan at 5.0 million MT. India’s robust production, estimated at 154.0 million MT for 2025/26, continued to exert a moderating influence on regional price movements. Demand remained resilient, particularly from major importers such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and China, with projected imports of 5.6 million MT, 4.0 million MT, and 3.3 million MT, respectively, for 2026/27.
Europe
In Europe, rice prices were primarily influenced by import dependency, freight dynamics, and supplier availability rather than domestic production factors. The USDA projects EU rice imports at 2.35 million MT for 2026/27, while exports are estimated at 410,000 MT, underscoring the region’s reliance on external supply. Elevated freight and insurance costs, exacerbated by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, contributed to increased landed costs, particularly for Asian-origin rice. Despite these pressures, demand remained stable across retail and foodservice segments, supported by consistent consumption patterns.
North America
In North America, U.S. rice prices were shaped by declining export competitiveness alongside emerging supply-side constraints. The USDA revised down its 2025/26 U.S. long-grain export forecast to 50.0 million cwt, reflecting subdued international demand. Mexico’s rice imports declined by approximately 20.0% during the first seven months of its 2025/26 marketing year, while the U.S. market share weakened as Brazil and Uruguay expanded their presence. Additionally, reduced long-grain acreage and elevated input costs in the U.S. contributed to a more supportive outlook for forward prices, indicating potential upward pressure in the near term.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, near term, rice prices may remain mixed. India’s ample supply can cap gains, but fertilizer, freight, and tighter U.S. and Thai acreage may limit downside.
Need Latest Rice Prices?
Get real-time price assessments, periodic trends, forecasts and price driver insights across key global markets.
Our Clients
Procurement Resource Database
Turn price intelligence into action with the Procurement Resource Database. Log in or subscribe to unlock live price trends, historical charts, supplier databases, cost curves, and analyst-backed insights across chemicals, agriculture, energy, packaging, and more. Use these tools to benchmark your contracts, plan budgets with confidence, and stay ahead of market moves on every product you buy.
0
+Products
0
+Regions
0
+Subscriptions
Asia
During the second half of 2025, rice prices across Asia generally softened as global supplies improved following the removal of India's export restrictions and the arrival of new harvests in major producing countries. India remained highly competitive in export markets after abundant domestic supplies and lower export prices, while Thailand and Vietnam faced stronger competition that pressured export quotations. In contrast, Pakistan recorded firmer basmati rice prices during the latter part of the year due to flood-related crop damage and concerns over water availability, tightening premium rice supplies. Overall, ample regional availability and aggressive competition among exporters kept non-basmati rice prices under downward pressure despite steady international demand.
Europe
Rice prices in Europe remained relatively stable during H2’25, supported by adequate import availability from Asia and easing global export prices. The resumption of unrestricted Indian exports improved supply options for European importers, while declining international rice quotations helped limit procurement costs. Although domestic production remained constrained in some European regions, sufficient imports prevented major price volatility and ensured balanced market conditions throughout the second half of the year.
North America
North American rice prices remained broadly stable during H2 2025, supported by comfortable domestic supplies and consistent export demand. The United States continued supplying key international markets, although increased competition from lower-priced Asian origins limited export price gains. Domestic market fundamentals remained balanced, with steady consumption and adequate inventories offsetting fluctuations in global trade. As a result, rice prices experienced only modest movements through the second half of 2025 despite evolving international market dynamics.
About Rice
Rice is the seed of the grass species Oryza sativa (Asian rice) or Oryza glaberrima (African rice). Rice cultivation is well-suited for regions with high rainfall as it requires ample water and its cultivation process is labour-intensive. As a cereal grain, it is one of the most extensively consumed staple foods, particularly in Asia and Africa. It is an agricultural commodity with the third-highest production after sugarcane and maize, worldwide.
Rice Product Detail
HS Code
100630
Industrial Uses
Food and Beverages, Brewing, Manufacturing of Starch
Synonyms
Paddy (unmilled rice)
Supplier Database
DuPont de Nemours, Inc, Cargill, Incorporated, Wilmar International Ltd, Doguet’s Rice Milling Company, Randall Organic Rice
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America
United States and Canada
Latin America
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa
South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Rice Production Process
- Production of Rice via Cultivation
Cultivation of Rice includes several stages which are seed selection, land preparation, crop establishment, water management, nutrient and crop health management, harvesting, and post-harvest steps. Depending on the variety, a rice crop generally reaches to its maturity in around 105–150 days.
Frequently Asked Questions
The rice market outlook for 2026 points to mixed price conditions. India's abundant production of approximately 154 million MT and projected exports of 25 million MT will likely cap price gains, while tighter U.S. and Thai acreage, elevated fertilizer and freight costs, and Strait of Hormuz-related insurance premiums may limit downside. Downstream demand from food security buying and importers across Asia, Europe, and North America is expected to remain firm, supporting the market floor.
Rice prices are shaped by divergent supply conditions across origins. India's ample domestic availability and strong production keep export prices lower, capping regional upside, while tighter supply in Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan supports firmer pricing. Upstream pressure from rising fertilizer, fuel, and freight costs, worsened by Strait of Hormuz disruptions, lifts landed costs. Downstream, firm food-security and distribution demand from Asia, Europe, and North America provides support.
India dominates global rice production at an estimated 154.0 million MT and leads exports at a projected 25.0 million MT, followed by Vietnam at 8.0 million MT, Thailand at 7.5 million MT, and Pakistan at 5.0 million MT. The Philippines leads imports at 5.6 million MT, followed by Vietnam at 4.0 million MT and China at 3.3 million MT. This heavy concentration means supply disruptions carry outsized global impact.
Seasonal and weather conditions materially affect rice production across multiple regions. Floods in Pakistan can damage crops and tighten premium basmati supplies by reducing yields. Poor harvests driven by adverse weather can send prices soaring, as seen in Japan. El Niño patterns add further supply uncertainty globally. In Australia, water availability constraints affect crop size and can prompt processing reductions at mills such as Deniliquin and Leeton.
Rice takes 105 to 150 days to mature, directly shaping seasonal export availability. India's robust production of approximately 154.0 million MT has kept export prices stable, while tighter supply in Vietnam and Thailand has supported firmer quotes. India's exports of approximately 25.0 million MT far exceed Vietnam at 8.0 million MT and Thailand at 7.5 million MT, giving India's harvest calendar outsized weight in global supply expectations. Weather patterns add further volatility to seasonal stock cycles and downstream pricing.
Food and beverages, health foods, cosmetics, and animal feed are the main downstream industries driving rice demand. Food processors use rice to make flour, noodles, and bran oil, while health-food manufacturers source it as a whole-grain ingredient. Cosmetics firms draw on rice for skin and hair products, and animal feed operations consume it as a staple input. Strong food-security buying and public distribution needs across Asia, Europe, and North America keep procurement robust, supporting firm price levels even where India's ample supply caps gains.
Several developments shaped the rice market in Q2 2026. U.S. long-grain planted acreage fell sharply, with Arkansas reaching its lowest level in nearly 50 years, tightening domestic supply and supporting forward prices. In India, firmer export offers emerged as government reserve sale price increases raised replacement costs and slower summer planting heightened crop concerns, sustaining upward pressure on quotes. SunRice reduced production at its Deniliquin and Leeton milling facilities in Australia, highlighting water availability constraints. India's ample availability partially offset these supply-side pressures, capping broader regional gains.
During the 2025/26 crop year, India's rice production is estimated at approximately 154.0 million MT, underscoring its dominant role in global supply. In the United States, 2026 planted long-grain rice acreage dropped sharply, with Arkansas at its lowest level in nearly 50 years, signalling tighter domestic supply. Reduced long-grain acreage and elevated input costs in the U.S. point to upward pressure on forward prices, while India's robust harvest continues to moderate regional price movements by keeping export availability ample for major importers across Asia and Africa.
Procurement Resource assesses rice price trends through a structured, data-driven methodology combining direct engagement with producers, suppliers and traders, secondary market data, monitoring of feedstock and input costs, trade-flow and inventory tracking, and exchange or spot benchmarks. Each assessment is validated and translated into a transparent price outlook for market participants. The detailed methodology is available on the Procurement Resource website.
Our Price Analysis Methodology
About the Author
Shriya Singh
Business Insights Analyst
Helping procurement and sourcing teams navigate complex markets through data-driven research, category intelligence, and actionable insights - with a focus on identifying market trends, analyzing supply-side developments, and delivering clear intelligence that supports informed business decisions.
Schedule A Demo
Experience how Procurement Resource transforms raw material price data into clear, decision ready intelligence. Optimise your performance with reliable, expert market data and analysis. Schedule your demo today to experience a live walk-through where our experts will showcase interactive price charts, forecasted prices, and insights driving the prices for your key commodities, tailored to your workflows. Contact us now!
Our Team will be happy to assist you
We are just a text away
Still Need Help?
Other Related Reports
Wheat Starch Production from Scandinavian Process
In this process, wheat flour is fed into a streamlet of water where a slurry mixture of wheat and water is formed.
Wheat Starch Production from Martin Process
This report provides the cost structure of wheat starch production from the Martin process. Martin process refers to the wet milling process.
Unlock full access to Procurement Resource's price databases, interactive charts, and short-term forecasts for thousands of commodities. Elevate your sourcing decisions by comparing prices across regions, downloading historical data, and layering in analyst-backed insights, all with our flexible plans that scale as your portfolio grows.
Still have any Questions
Contact Us
Price Trend Dashboard - What's Included
Price trends across a diverse portfolio of categories and products, spanning board to niche chemicals
Coverage extendable to grade-specific chemicals based on procurement requirements
Regular price tracking supported by robust historical datasets
News, policy updates, and key market drivers impacting price movements
Short-term and long-term price outlooks and forecasts
Supply–demand dynamics and capacity-driven market analysis
Related News
View All
Why Procurement Database
Commodity Market Intelligence
Track prices, market movements, supply-demand dynamics, and industry developments across hundreds of commodities through a centralized intelligence platform built for informed procurement decisions.
Price Forecasts & Market Outlooks
Understand market fluctuations using analyst-backed forecasts, historical pricing patterns, and evolving industry trends to strengthen sourcing strategies and budget planning.
Cost & Procurement Optimization
Leverage cost models, pricing benchmarks, and procurement insights to evaluate purchasing opportunities, improve negotiations, and enhance operational efficiency.
Global & Regional Market Insights
Access region-specific price trends, trade activities, capacity changes, and supply chain developments influencing commodity markets worldwide.
1/4