Rice Price Trend and Forecast

Rice Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Rice in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Rice Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

In India, to protect the domestic players from the global changes in the rice sector and keep its pricing trajectory stagnant, the government lowered the exporting volumes towards the later end of H2’23. Initially, as the dry season soared with the onset of El Nino, the production rates of Thailand and India reduced by a significant margin, constricting the supply chains. The below-than-expected rainfall and growing consumption further aided the settlement of rice prices in Asian countries on the higher end of the pricing spectrum.
 

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South America

In 2023, South American traders saw a decline in global rice production amidst fears of a global recession because of the ongoing El Niño phenomenon, which caused drought across Asia. India, the largest rice exporter, imposed restrictions on shipments, while rice prices surged to 15-year highs. Conversely, Brazil emerges as a beacon of hope, poised for near-record agricultural production despite climatic variability.

While rice prices soared, there was also an incline in the demand for the commodity, escalating particularly from overseas countries. Nonetheless, Argentina anticipates a boost in grain production due to heavy rains. The result of this limited production was the surge in rice prices from approximately 350 USD/MT to 521 USD/MT during H2’23.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Rice is estimated to stabilize with the smoothening of global supply chains and rise in production volumes.
 

Rice Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Stay updated with the latest Rice prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

The Rice market observed mixed price trend throughout the first half of the year 2023. The first quarter witnessed a continuity of last year’s economic turmoil as the prices kept rising amidst regular demands and high upstream costs. However, the second quarter was the time of steady regularization of the rice market as the global energy prices had come down sooner than expected, and the inflation was also wearing off. In the Indian domestic rice market, the rice prices closed in the second quarter at an average price of around 410 USD/MT.

South America

The South American market witnessed a rather stable price dynamic for rice during the said period. Prices fluctuated in a narrow range; however, the quarter shift saw a sudden jump, and the general sentiment was of stability and normalization. The average spot price for Rice in Brazil was about 338 USD/MT in June’23.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the state's involvement in the rice price regulation, the prices are likely to stabilize further in the coming months.
 

Rice Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The second half of the year 2022 witnessed a struggling rice market with high global inflation. The Russia and Ukraine war threatened global food security, as the supply chains were disrupted, and the unprecedented climatic changes were severely impacting agricultural yields. In the Indian domestic market, the short grain rice prices inclined by about 28% within the discussed six months. So, the Rice price trend remained on the ascending trek throughout the said time period.

South America

The South American countries were also facing the wrath of rising global inflation; the approximate inclination in the average spot rice prices was about 21% in the last two quarters in Brazil. The supplies were curtailed for this one of the most essential food commodities because of the bogus trade routes and disturbed trade sentiments. Overall, the rice prices remained on an uphill trajectory for the entire time of H2’22.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Indian Government is anticipating a decline in rice production in the coming year, so the prices are expected to rise further going into the next quarters.
 

Rice Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In Vietnam, the fifth largest producer of rice, the price of white rice hovered around at just 450 USD/MT. In India, the price for rice jumped by 10% as Bangladesh lifted the import duty in June which increased the export deals made by local producers causing a supply constraint in the domestic market. Additionally, the rice production in the country was hit by excessive rains and floods which also supported the price hike. The price of non-basmati rice had risen to 360 USD/MT, 10 USD/MT higher than the global market.

Europe

In Europe, the price of rice skyrocketed in Italy, the largest producer in the region backed by factors like Russia-Ukraine conflicts, inflation, Brexit and rising Covid-19 cases. The price per ton for rice crossed the 2000 USD-mark in the first half of Q2 2022. Additionally, the high prices were also supported by poor weather conditions as well as rising fertilizer prices. Spain crops too had been hit by extreme temperatures and drought affecting the output of the commodity.

North America

In California, the paddy crop yielded low outputs which increased the demand in the region leading heavy import and historically high prices for rice at around 824 USD/MT for ex-works. Broken white rice price reached at 1323 USD/MT in June 2022 to fulfil the rising domestic demand usually fulfilled by the domestic supply in a normal year.
 

Rice Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Rice export prices rose this quarter due to strong demand, although Vietnamese traders complained about increased transportation costs due to the Ukraine conflict. With the Ukraine-Russia situation encouraging importers to put additional orders from abroad in Asia, Vietnam's 5% broken rice prices surged to their highest since December at 410-415 USD/MT in March 2022, up from 400 USD/MT in the first week of March.

Latin America

Long grain milled prices were at or near 650 USD/MT , although prices in South America were at least 100 USD/MT lower. South America is in the midst of harvest season, and there are various uncertainties swirling about Brazil's drought situation. Uruguay has reached the apex of its harvest and is currently on the downhill slope of the final 20%.
 

Rice Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The average price of white rice (5% broken) in Vietnam grew by 4.4% month over month to 404.46 USD/MT in October 2021. The price increase was due to supply constraints caused by a reduced harvest in Vietnam and high worldwide demand. Furthermore, following the re-escalation of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam (August 2021), the loosening of social distancing measures aided its exports.

According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, Vietnamese rice exports increased for three months in a row, reaching 593,624 MT in September, up 19% over the previous month. This may put increased pressure on export prices in the coming months, leading up to the next crop in early 2022.

In October, the average price of Thailand white rice (5 % broken) jumped by 0.8% over the previous month, to 338.5 USD/MT. In Q4 2021, Thai exports of the crop were predicted to increase as the Thai Baht weakened, making Thai rice more competitive and increasing worldwide demand. The October average price of white rice (5 % broken) in India, a major producing and exporting country, fell by 2.8 % month-over-month to 363 USD/MT.

Europe

Following a three-quarter decline in pricing, with the lowest prices in September, prices returned to July levels by November's conclusion, hitting 350 EUR/MT. 
North America

For the week ending December 7, US long-grain milled rice prices, number 2 grade, 4% broken kernels (free on board a vessel at a Gulf port, Iraqi standards) remained steady at 600 USD/MT, unchanged from the week ending July 20. For the week ending December 7, US prices for Latin American milled rice markets (Haiti, Colombia, and Mexico) were steady at 550 USD/MT, unchanged from the week ending August 3. Unlike milled-rice prices, U.S. rough-rice long-grain export price quotations rose from 340 USD/MT the week ending November 2 to 360 USD/MT the week ending November 23.

Latin America

Most South American exporters' price quotations climbed or remained constant for the last month. By December end, Uruguay's generic 5% broken-kernel long-grain milled paddy was quoted at 545 USD/MT, unchanged from the week ending November 2. The quoted price for long-grain milled paddy for Latin America was 5 USD less than the US price. There were also pricing quotes for higher-priced nongeneric shipments from Uruguay. Over the last quarter, nothing changed. Argentina's 5% broken rice prices were quoted at 540 USD/MT.
 

Rice Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Due to low demand and greater shipping costs, Indian export prices fell to four-and-a-half-year lows in August, while COVID-19 tariffs in Vietnam pushed rates to one-and-a-half-year lows. Top Thailand's 5% broken rice prices climbed to 387-400 USD/MT, up from 380-395 USD/MT, which was the lowest in more than two years. The 5% broken parboiled kind from India was offered at 352-356 USD/MT, down from 354-358 USD/MT previously.

Europe

While freight from the majority of Asian sources to major European ports used to cost approximately $1,000 per TEU, expenses often increased by at least tenfold. Increased demand from nations such as Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands aided the basmati rice business as exports to Iran remained unclear. This resulted in a 10% spike in rice prices over the last two months.

North America

Total rice imports to the United States were predicted to reach a record 39.0 million cwt in 2021/22, up 0.5 million cwt from the previous prediction and more than 13% more than the previous year. All of the month's increased adjustment in imports was due to medium- and short-grain. Imports of medium- and short-grains were anticipated to reach a record 8.0 million cwt in 2021/22, up 0.5 million cwt from the previous prediction and 19% higher than a year before. Rice rices declined from 466 to 414USD/MT at the end of June over these periods.
 

Rice Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

On limited domestic supplies, Vietnam's 5% broken rice prices rose to 500-505 USD/MT in the final week December, the most since 2011, up from 500 USD/MT a week ago. Vietnam's paddy exports in 2020 dropped by 3.5%, to 6.15 MMT. Export sales increased 9.3%, to 3.07 USD billion this year.

Thailand's benchmark 5% broken rice prices were quoted at 510-516 USD/MT in December. Due to high pricing, the demand for Thai paddy remained relatively flat. Bangladesh's food minister announced that the country is lowering its rice import fee from 62.5% to 25%, enabling private merchants to import the crop up to a specific amount, in an effort to boost reserves and lower record prices.

Europe

In 2020, the EU's brown rice import price was 708 USD/MT, an increase of 3.8% over the previous year. Rice prices varied significantly by destination country; Germany had the highest price (940 USD/MT), while Portugal had the lowest (499 USD/MT).

European paddy imports were on the rise, and specialized varieties such as fragrant basmati gained appeal. The majority of the increased interest came from northwest Europe, where the crop is not historically grown or consumed, with the United Kingdom leading the way. The growing demand for healthy, sustainable foods created potential for specialized rice labelled organic or fair trade.

North America

US market prices for long-grain milled rice remained steady in 2020, with exportable supplies remaining severely limited as virtually all of the 2019-20 crop was sold and the Delta's 2020-21 harvest was delayed, the ERS stated. US long-grain milled rice, No. 2 Grade, 4% cracked kernels (FOB Gulf port, Iraq requirements) were constant at 625 USD/MT in the week ending Oct. 6. Arkansas is the leading producing state, accounting for more than 40% of the crop in the United States.

Latin America

Brazil is by far Latin America's largest milled rice producer, with a projected production of approximately 7.5 MMT in 2020. Peru came in second place with 2.4 MMT produced. In 2020, the export price in Latin America and the Caribbean was 403 USD/MT, up 1.6% from the previous year, while the import price was 451 USD/MT, up 19% from the previous year.

As of August 17, the average paddy price in Brazil's largest rice producing state, Rio Grande do Sul, grew by 17% month on month to 276 USD/MT, representing a 74% year-on-year gain. From July 24 to August 14, the price of Paraguayan 5% broken white rice surged 60 USD/MT, to a new high of 480 USD/MT FOB FCL.

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