Softwood Lumber Price Trend and Forecast

Softwood Lumber Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Softwood Lumber meal in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Softwood Lumber Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

In the second quarter of 2024, softwood lumber prices saw a decline due to weak demand and sluggish construction activity. The price of benchmark Western Spruce-Pine-Fir 2x4 dropped substantially by mid-year, an approximate 4% decrease from the previous month and a 21% drop from the same week in 2023.
 

Softwood Lumber Price Chart

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Persistently low lumber prices reduced European imports, and a surplus of suppliers kept prices low across the market, with only wide-dimension lumber remaining somewhat profitable. Lumber sales in North America remained sluggish despite seasonal expectations for increased demand. Sawmills implemented production curtailments, which prevented significant price drops, though low sales volumes persisted. Softwood lumber production was stable in Canada and the U.S., with sawmill utilization rates hovering around 72% and 78%, respectively.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, despite an expected overall dip in lumber demand, year-to-date housing starts and permits are up compared to the previous year, indicating potential stable lumber demand for the rest of the year. Hence, Softwood Lumber prices are expected to waver in a similar range going forward.
 

Softwood Lumber Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Softwood lumber continued its uphill journey in the new year as well. The US market witnessed a continued incline in downstream demands from the building and furnishing sectors. In the global markets, too, softwood lumber observed a rapid rise in market prices. Along with the rise in market offtakes, these hikes in softwood lumber prices were also attributed to the soaring trade disruptions in the global markets.

Supply chains were severely hampered as the rise in crude oil prices increased fuel costs. A trucking shortage curtailed domestic and national transportation. Port congestion was increasingly getting severe. Further, because of the soaring threats in the Red Sea by the Houthi militants, various shipping companies limited their presence in oceans as the waters became dangerous. Since the majority of global trade is still facilitated by ocean freight, the disruptions were globally widespread. Overall, a rising price trajectory was observed for softwood lumber during the said period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, though the market will strive for some balance, the Softwood Lumber prices are likely to continue inclining in the coming months.
 

Softwood Lumber Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Softwood Lumber prices saw an inclined price trajectory during the said period of the second half of the year 2023. Especially in the US market, the price trend inched up higher the entire duration. As the real estate market grew, the housing and furnishing requirements also grew. Around the holiday season in the final quarter, people also saw a rise in renovation activities, which further boosted the softwood lumber market prices.

Amidst all this, the US Government raised tariffs on softwood lumber imports from Canada. Suppliers were already struggling with grappling supply chain issues and freight disturbances when these hikes in tariff presented another blow. This was directly reflected in the price trend for softwood lumber in the American markets. As the end consumer demands remained steady, the prices surged in the US domestic markets.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current disturbances in the global trade scenario, the Softwood Lumber price trends are likely to continue rising in the coming months.
 

Softwood Lumber Price Trend for First Half of 2023

The price trend of softwood lumber fluctuated in the first and second quarters of 2023. In the initial phase of the first quarter, the prices were low due to the soft movement of the lumber industry as the construction activities slumped, especially in Canada.

The market saw a little improvement due to high demand from the downstream industries in the month of February, but this rise was only short-lived. During this phase, the stocking activities by traders also saw a significant reduction in view of the negative purchasing potential of buyers.

However, in April, the market activities gained the required momentum as weather conditions improved, and the construction sector helped the prices of softwood lumber to incline in the US and Canada regions. This positive movement in the prices of softwood lumber was also supported by the rising costs of food, energy, and trade services.

The trend changed again in the later phase of the second quarter as the prices fell steeply. The consistent decline in the trend was heavily affected by the low cost of fuel and energy products. The market sentiments of softwood lumber remained in the negative zone.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Softwood Lumber is estimated to showcase a mixed trajectory as the demand for softwood lumber and its derivatives depends on the weather conditions and rates of inflation.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Softwood Lumber. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.