Soybean Meal Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Soybean Meal in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Soybean Meal Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Soybean Meal prices fluctuated throughout the first half of the year 2023. After standing at the average spot price of around 673 USD/MT in January’23 in the Chinese domestic market, the Soybean Meal prices descended to around 546 USD/MT in June’23, registering an approximate depreciation of about 18%.

Soybean Meal Price Chart

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This decline was mostly attributed to the existing high stocks of edible oils and oilseeds. An increased agricultural production of soybeans additionally boosted the supplies. Moreover, attempts for global trade normalization reduced the upstream and processing costs by cutting down energy and freight charges. So, easy and high supplies coupled with steady downstream demands from the food and fodder sectors pushed the Soybean Meal prices down.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Soybean Meal market is showing positive projections for the coming months. After retarding in the first half, the market is likely to redeem itself in the second half of 2023.

Soybean Meal Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Soybean Meal is made from the leftovers of the soyabean oil extraction process. Soybean Meal prices started very strong and set on an uphill trajectory for the entire period of the last six months of 2022. Increased export premiums drove the Soybean Meal market sentiments.

In India, the removal of the stock limits on edible oils and oilseeds by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Government of India, further supported the Soybean Meal prices. Some normalization was observed by the end of the final quarter.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current market dynamics, the price trend for Soybean Meal are likely to remain volatile in the coming months.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Middle East and Africa

In the last week of May, the wholesale price of soybean meal was 950 USD/MT. The price rose astronomically to 4020 USD/MT in the first week of June, indicating a rise of 323.2%. This was the result of the government cutting subsidies on food imports, triggering an instant rise in prices various flour-based staples, including soybean meal.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In China, the soybean market reached 3638 RMB/MT in the second week of January 2022, rising by 3.29% from the starting of the month. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, the soybean meal demand in the animal feed industry increased.

The average meal spot prices reached 4008 RMB/MT in February after the Spring Festival. Soybean meal prices rose further to 4100 RMB/MT as a result of crop failure in South America due to weather disruptions. In March, the prices reached record highs, rising to more than 5000 RMB/MT. Low inventory and tight supplies led to the price hike in the region.

Latin America

The soybean meal futures in March reached a 7-year high as Argentina, a major shipper, suspended export registrations to protect domestic market. In Argentina, traders were suspended from registering soybean meal for export followed by a tax high on shipments to prevent farmers from pre-empting price hike with a surge in sales.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In China, the price was low in the final quarter of 2021 even though the country had paid high prices on imports in previous quarters. The demand in China had lowered in the final quarter which led to a fall in its price. This was due to reduced consumption of pork as the coronavirus spread in the country and people stopped going out.

Even by the end of the quarter, the price continued to be high in India as production levels were significantly lower when compared to those in the previous year. Despite increasing the production, the farmers controlled the supply of the product, anticipating a rise in price which in turn affected the poultry industry. Increased demand, high labour costs and shortage of raw materials also drove up the price.

In India, the price ranged from 700 USD/MT to close to 900 USD/MT from September to December 2021. In Indian government, imposed limits on stocks of soybean meal to control the rising price of the commodity in the region to protest the interests of poultry farmers. Later the government allowed its imports from Argentina and Brazil to satisfy the domestic demands and as well as dip domestic prices.

Europe

In the final quarter of 2021, soybean meal prices in Europe had dropped to 442 USD/MT as its production stabilised in the region. Ukraine and Russia emerged as the major soybean meal producers. However, the demand remained low in the region.

North America

In the US, the price plummeted to as low as 313 USD/MT due to the high supply levels and stockpiles in October 2021. China, a major importer of the product, switched to other alternatives to feed hogs and therefore reduced its imports which in turn brought down its price globally. The reduced demand from China also added to the reasons for the price fall. However, the demand in China is forecasted to increase in the upcoming year of 2022.

Latin America

In Brazil, soybean meal prices started to drop after mid-October, due to lack of demand and remarkably high production in the country. By the third week of December 2021, prices had dropped by almost 21% (by 112 USD/MT) even though the crops suffered due to dry and cold weather conditions. Argentina, at the same time, emerged as a major exporter to China, as Brazil failed to keep up.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

China relied heavily on imports of soybean meal from the US, Brazil and Argentina as demands for feedstock increased in the country. Corn prices were soaring, which also increased the demand for the product and drove up its prices. In the second and third quarters of 2021, prices jumped by more than 60 % in India due to the growing shortage, calling for imports.

Bangladesh restricted its soy meal exports to India to satisfy the domestic demands which also elevated the prices in the region. Farmers also held back their stocks of soybean meal, the prices of which continued to go over the roof for the most part of the year 2021 until the government intervened at the end of the third quarter by allowing its imports from overseas.

Europe

In January 2021, soybean meal prices continued to rise steeply, reaching at 561 USD/MT. However, it came down and remained mostly rangebound in the second and third quarters of 2021 (470 USD/MT), as supplies flourished in Ukraine and the demand for feedstock weakened.

North America

The US was the third-largest exporter of soybean meal in 2021 after Argentina and Brazil. In the US, the price reached as high as 428 USD/MT in the middle of the second quarter over speculations of supply shortages. Another reason for the increase in soybean meal prices was the high export demands from China as meat consumption levels increased in the country after the pandemic.

The US dollar also grew weaker and supply shortages in food commodities along with rising crude prices were reported globally. Corn prices were soaring, which also increased the demand for soybean meal from China and drove up the prices during the second and third quarters of 2021. In the third quarter, however, as supplies flourished the price reduced to 385 USD/MT in August 2021.

Latin America

The price surged high in 2021 as Brazil and Argentina, the major exporters of soybean products, faced crop damage due to the worsening of weather conditions (La Nina) in the region. Tensions grew in Argentina as harvest was delayed in 2020-21 and Paraguayan farmers held off their crop supply which impacted the soybean crushing industry in Argentina. Prices were fluctuating in Argentina throughout the year in 2021.

In the first quarter of 2021, Europe Union imports from Brazil and Argentina had declined as the use of soybean meal was replaced by rapeseed meal made from vegetable oil. However, the demand for soybean products like soybean meal from China drove up the price of the commodity in the first two quarters of 2021 to levels as high as 471 USD/MT in January and 457 USD/MT in May 2021. The domestic demand for soybean meal-based feedstock also increased in Brazil adding on to the surging soybean meal prices.

For the Year 2020

Asia

In 2020, China was the largest producer of soybean meal. Despite this, China experienced its shortage and relied on exports from India, US and Brazil in 2020. In India, the market faced a downward trend in prices in the first quarter of 2020 owing to the fall in demand due to the pandemic of Covid 19 and also considerable supply availability.

The market soon picked up pace in the next quarter from March to June 2020 as people regained confidence over consumption of poultry products and the demand for soybean meal used in the poultry industry increased. Prices however again declined by September 2020. In 2020, the government increased the soybean minimum support rate by 4.6%.

Europe

Soybean meal prices in Europe were mostly stagnant during the first half of the year rising from 354 USD/MT in the first quarter to 363 USD/MT in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the price began to rise exponentially and by the fourth quarter it was as high as 495 USD/MT. This increase in price was due to the expanding economy in China after the pandemic which increased its demand as supplies were being exhausted.

North America

In 2020, the US was the second highest producer of soybean meal after China. In the US, unprecedented storms (like the Derecho storm) and dry weather conditions affected the soybean crops, which in turn raised its price in the country. The price was around 325 USD/MT. High demand from Asian countries like China also drove up the prices in the US in October 2020.

Apart from this, the corn prices in the US also went up, which affected the price for soybean and related commodities. China and US also lifted trade barriers, as China reduced its tariffs on US products putting an end to their two-year trade disputes, and therefore allowing farmers in the US to export their supplies overseas.

Latin America

The soybean production in Brazil had slowed down in 2020 owing to the bad weather conditions caused by La Nina. By October, the farmers had driven the prices up by refusing to sell their supplies which affected the poultry market. The demand for export to countries like China also drove up the prices.

Farmers in Argentina held back their crop in anticipation of the rise in the Argentinian Peso. Despite high production levels and growing demand for soybean products such as meal and oil, farmers refused to send their soybean supplies for crushing. This drove up the price in Argentina to close to 350 USD/MT in October 2020. Argentina and Brazil were the major exporters of the product to the European Union, accounting for around 85% of their imports in 2020.

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