Sunflower Oil Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Sunflower Oil in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Sunflower Oil Price Trend for the H2 of 2022

Asia

The price trends for sunflower oil were relatively firm in the Asia-Pacific region during the said period. Owing to the domestic off-season, epidemic and limitations in transportation, the prices of sunflower oil fell in the Chinese market. In August, despite the insufficient inventories, the prices did not witness large fluctuations due to the weak terminal demand.

The trading atmosphere was light due to the Mid-Autumn Festival. Sunflower Oil prices were stable on the whole, averaging 15,000 RMB/MT towards the end of September. Furthermore, the price trends weakened during the fourth quarter as new supplies came from Ukraine whereas the demand for the product kept low in the domestic market.

Europe

Sunflower oil prices witnessed a declining pattern during the said period. With Russia cancelling the export quota system, the export tariff on sunflower oil decreased. With sufficient market inventories and muted transactions, the prices in the European region plummeted.

North America

In line with global trends, the prices of sunflower oil in the US domestic market remained on the scale's lower end. The overall oil market was stable despite lowering demand and weakening oil stocks averaging 1578 USD/MT (approx.) in September and around 1512 USD/MT in December.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, edible oil prices, such as sunflower oil, are expected to decrease in the global market in the coming months. However, the possibility of large fluctuations is not high, and the overall prices will remain stable.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

With prices of food, fuel, and crop nutrients rising in the first half of Q2 2022 as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war and India importing the majority of its edible oil from European nations, prices in the Asia Pacific region dropped.

Prices soared as a result of the war. In addition, to cut domestic prices and to assist manage inflation and the rising cost of food locally, the Indian government exempted 20 lakh metric tonnes of annual imports of the commodity from customs duty and the agriculture infrastructure growth tax in the second half of Q2. Sunflower oil prices were recorded at 2345 USD/MT Ex-Chennai (India) in June 2022 toward the end of the quarter.

North America

Due to rising demand from the downstream industries, sunflower oil prices climbed in North America during the second quarter of 2022. Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, which drove up the price of oil on the domestic market, sunflower oil prices rose in the first half of Q2.

Consumer demand for the commodity has significantly increased. The price of the commodity also climbed dramatically as a result of a rise in demand from Canada, which had previously been the top import market for US sunflower oil. The price continued to rise in the second half of Q2 2022 as a result of increasing inflation and a disrupted supply from European nations. Sunflower oil prices increased to 2059 USD/MT on a FOB basis in June 2022 around the close of Q2 of 2022.

Europe

Because of the Russia-Ukraine war, prices in Europe rose during the second quarter of 2022. Ukraine is the largest exporter of sunflower oil in the world, but the Russian invasion has complicated growing, manufacturing, and shipping, driving up worldwide costs and prompting rationing in some nations.

Due to a fuel shortage and the fact that the closest border was more than 620 miles away, Ukraine's major issue in the second half of Q2 was transporting its goods to the border. Prices were recorded at 2140 USD/MT FOB Chornomorsk (Ukraine) in June 2022 around the close of the quarter.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

As a result of the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict, branded sunflower oil prices reached an all-time high in India, costing about 3,000 INR/15-liter can. In March 2022, the price per litre was in the range of 170-190 INR, compared to 140-150 INR three months earlier. Over 70% of India's sunflower oil comes from Russia and Ukraine. Because of the tensions between the two countries, supply has been significantly impeded.

There isn't enough supply coming from Indian producers. The suspension of its supplies has resulted in an increase in demand for other types of cooking oil, such as palm, peanut, and soybean, which are experiencing a demand-supply imbalance.

Europe

Ukraine and Russia produce around 60% of the world's sunflower oil, and the conflict has severely disrupted supplies. It accounts for around a fifth of the market in terms of value and 44 percent in terms of volume in UK retailers. After the invasion of Ukraine, its price increased by 60%, from 1,130 GBP/MT in February to over 1,800 GBP/MT in March. Millions of tonnes of sunflower oil destined for overseas purchasers have been stranded in Ukraine as a result of the conflict, generating a severe supply shock. The Ukrainian government has been unable to export 10 million tonnes of sunflower seeds.

Latin America

Uncertainty, over Black Sea shipments as a result of Russia-Ukraine conflict has caused sunflower oil prices in Argentina to spike 47% in less than two weeks between February 23 and March 8, 2022  according to the USDA United States Department of Agriculture.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In October, the government decreased the base import tax on crude sunflower oil to 2.5% from 7.5%. The base import tariff on refined sunflower oil was reduced from 37.5% to 32.5%.

Imports of crude palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil would face a total tax of 24.75 percent, including a 2.5 percent basic import tariff and other taxes, after the changes, while refined palm oil, soyoil, and sunflower oil would face a total tax of 35.75 percent.

More than two-thirds of India's edible oil consumption is met by imports, and the country has been trying to keep domestic oil prices stable in recent months.

Palm oil is mostly imported from leading suppliers Indonesia and Malaysia, while soy and sunflower oils are imported from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia.

Tax cuts would lower edible oil prices in the run-up to major festivals, when demand for the product spikes.

Europe

Sunflower prices in Ukraine dropped to a three-month low as crude oil prices fall, putting pressure on the vegetable oil complex, while the return of a Covid-19 variation raised fears of tighter movement restrictions across Europe. Sunflower crushers cut their rates by more than 55-73 USD/MT in December, to 678-715 USD/MT, as a result of wider drops across the oil complex.

North America

In the fourth quarter, the prices of sunflower oil in the United States were in the range of 1.36k-1.42kUSD/MT. The US Refined Sunflower oil price was recorded at 1493 USD/MT. To accommodate regional demand, many international corporations sought to develop relationships with local producers. Furthermore, its application in biodiesel production has assisted the growth of the sunflower seed oil market.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

The price of the oil in India had increased by 90% y-o-y, with a price rise from 85 INR/L to 150 INR/L. The increase in price was attributable to the increased demand and drop in its imports. The Asia-Pacific area had significant development potential in the global market due to the widespread usage of sunflower oil in bakery, snack, and confectionery items.

The bakery industry in the region thrived in 2021, with increased demand for new and healthier baked items. Singapore's Ministry of Health, for example, announced in 2019 that starting in June 2021, all PHOs will be banned as an ingredient in all meals. Food processors switched to sunflower seed oil as a result, which increased demand in the region. India and China were the region's major importers because they were among the world's most populous countries.

Europe

In Ukraine, sunflower seed prices were recorded at 645 USD/MT in January, 740 USD/MT in May and 568 USD/MT in September. The market in the region was booming, with this type of oil consumption rapidly increasing. Its large amount of unsaturated fatty acids and high smoke point drove its consumption in the region.

North America

For the first three quarters of 2021, the US export price sunflower oil was estimated to be 1.35k USD/MT in January, USD/MT in May, and 1.31k USD/MT in September. The US refined sunflower oil price was recorded at 1493 USD/MT. Domestic demand for this oil has surged in recent years as a result of food producers' widespread use of it for frying and cooking. In addition, an increasing number of companies in the area were investing in large food processing plants.

For the Year 2020

Asia

In India, crude sunflower oil prices were 1148 USD/MT in November. The Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) revealed that edible oil imports decreased by 5%, bringing the total to 14.2 MMT. This was attributable to supply chain interruptions and low-income consumers' reduced spending. Disruptions in supply chain management, on the other hand, had begun to fade, and the industry was resuming its regular pace as countries eased trade embargoes.

Europe

In Ukraine, the average price of flower’s seed was 340 USD/MT during the first three quarters of the year, while it was 590 USD/MT in December. The COVID-19 epidemic wreaked havoc on the global economy and disrupted supply chain operations. Government-imposed trade barriers and restrictions also hindered the expansion of the sunflower seed and oil businesses.

The stay-at-home customer trend had wreaked havoc on the foodservice and HoReCa (hotel, restaurant, and café) industries. The spread of the coronavirus led to a rise in edible oil prices, which had a significant impact on the major oil-exporting countries.

North America

In 2020, the US export price for sunflower oil was 840 USD/MT in Jan, which declined to 730 USD/MT in June and finally rose again to 1040 USD/MT in September. The final quarter's average price was 1150 USD/MT . The seeds' oil was widely used in North America's cooking, energy, and chemical industries. The food industry's broad use was one of the factors that aided the market's growth.

Latin America

Argentina's market price for crude sunflower oil in 2020 was 698 USD/MT in January. The oil's oleic acid, linoleic acid, and other essential minerals help reduce cholesterol levels in the body. Its use as a healthy cooking and frying oil in food manufacturing firms and homes has risen steadily. This oil was also in demand as a cosmetic ingredient and for creating vegan mayonnaise, cheese, and spreads. As a result, the combination of these factors helped drive demand in 2020.

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