Vinyl Chloride Price Trend and Forecast

Vinyl Chloride Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Vinyl Chloride in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Vinyl Chloride Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Asia

The vinyl chloride market in Asia experienced fluctuating trends primarily due to a combination of subdued demand in the downstream polyvinyl chloride industry and various supply-side factors. Initially, the market saw a pause in price movements, supported by stable downstream PVC demand and limited supplies. However, concerns about disruptions in shipping routes and rising freight rates weighed on market sentiment.
 

Vinyl Chloride Price Chart

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Additionally, adverse weather conditions, such as dense fog and snowfall, further impacted trade routes and logistics, contributing to supply constraints. Despite a temporary halt in price movements in early February, vinyl chloride prices in Asia were influenced by fluctuating crude oil prices, leading to a cautious market outlook. Towards the end of the period, the market remained stable amid pre-holiday restocking and a slow rebound, although the overall sentiment was marked by uncertainties around demand and supply fundamentals.

Europe

In Europe, the vinyl chloride market during the first half of 2024 was characterized by moderate price fluctuations, shaped by weaker downstream PVC demand and concerns over freight disruptions. While some support came from the increased costs of imports due to higher freight rates, overall market sentiment was mixed, reflecting the ongoing challenges in freight logistics, particularly between Europe and Asia. European vinyl chloride traders faced difficulties due to extended transit times and increased costs, which made imports less competitive against local production. Despite these challenges, the potential for higher production costs offered some stability to the market, although the overall outlook remained cautious due to persistent demand-side weakness.

North America

In North America, the vinyl chloride market during the first half of 2024 showed a more stable trend, supported by steady domestic demand from the downstream PVC sector. The market was positively influenced by the sustained demand for construction materials and other applications. Despite the higher energy and raw material costs, domestic producers maintained relatively stable pricing due to strong market dynamics and supply constraints.

The market also benefited from increased interest from European buyers, who turned to US suppliers to mitigate the impact of rising shipping costs and supply chain disruptions from Asia. As a result, North American vinyl chloride producers were able to maintain robust pricing strategies despite the overall global economic uncertainty and softening demand trends.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Vinyl Chloride is estimated to sustain its momentum in the next quarter and ample support from the downstream and upstream industries.
 

Vinyl Chloride Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023
 
Asia

In the second half of 2023, the Asian vinyl chloride market displayed contrasting trends. During the initial phase in the third quarter, the market experienced some upward wavering in prices, driven by inclined demands from downstream industries such as plastics and construction.

Prices rose modestly in the Chinese market, and in the Indian market, too some swift slight incline was witnessed. However, as the year progressed, the market dynamics shifted a little. China's vinyl chloride market started trending downwards, witnessing a fall in prices, while India's market continued steadily on the inclined trajectory.

These fluctuations resulted in mixed sentiments across the Asian vinyl chloride market. This was primarily because of the degradation in the export queries from European countries after the supply chains were trampled further following the Israel and Hamas conflict in the Middle East. Despite the variations, the second half of 2023 showcased the market's resilience and ability to adapt to changing economic conditions.

Europe

In the second half of 2023, the European vinyl chloride market experienced fluctuations influenced by global trends, particularly those observed in China. Prices followed a declining trajectory, similar to the Chinese market, leading to an overall depreciation in the European market by the end of the period. Additionally, mixed trends were observed throughout this period, with marginal price rises in the first half of the period followed by negative influences from oversupplied inventories in the latter half, causing price dips. These fluctuations reflected varying market sentiments and conditions, highlighting the market's sensitivity to domestic and external factors.

North America

In the second half of 2023, North American vinyl chloride prices remained relatively stable, fluctuating within narrow limits. In the US market, prices initially declined in the first half of the period but stabilized in the latter half, resulting in a marginal overall decline by the end.

The market's recovery was cautious, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach. Similarly, during this period, the vinyl chloride market continued to be affected by challenging economic conditions with geopolitical uncertainties and reduced industrial activity in the fourth quarter as the New Year approached. Overall, a marginal slip was witnessed in the vinyl chloride market prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Vinyl Chloride prices are likely to continue oscillation in the coming months. The regional market demands and supply dynamics will guide the polyvinyl chloride price trend.
 

Vinyl Chloride Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The Vinyl Chloride market struggled as the Covid 19 lockdown in China had restricted the construction business almost completely. Finally, the onset of 2023 gave some respite to the struggling market. As the construction sector revived after a long time, demands rose for Vinyl Chloride, so the prices were on an inclined trajectory for the first quarter of 2023.

But as the inventories replenished and the growth of the construction sector slowed down, Vinyl Chloride prices again started depleting in the second quarter. Overall, mixed price sentiments were observed throughout the said period.

Europe

The European Vinyl Chloride market mostly exhibited low price trend during the discussed period. The severe cost of living crisis because of the grave economic recession put the construction sector on the backseat as consumer behaviour became very necessity centric. So, filled inventories in the face of sullen demands pushed the Vinyl Chloride price trend down, and the market exhibited bearish sentiments.

North America

The North American Vinyl Chloride market almost replicated its European counterpart with dull market sentiments. The failure of two major US banks and the rising of interest rates in the USA put a lot of pressure on consumers, and the construction market downsized with very limited queries. This fall in demand made the prices face southwards.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, Vinyl Chloride prices are expected to remain fluctuating as the market will continue to be affected by volatile downstream demands.
 

Vinyl Chloride Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend for vinyl chloride were affected by sluggish demand and weak consumer outlook in the Asia-Pacific region in the third quarter of 2022. Due to declining demand and a low level of inquiries from overseas importers, the level of inventories rose in the market and further aided the declining prices of vinyl chloride. In addition to this, the rise in market uncertainties leading to high inflation levels and port congestion problems negatively impacted the market and even in the fourth quarter of 2022, the prices failed to gain momentum.

Europe

The European region was also not much different from the Asia-Pacific in terms of vinyl chloride prices as the rising inflation and low demand from the polyvinyl chloride sector affected the last quarters of 2022. The region also witnessed an additional problem of shortage of labour due to strikes and the contracting purchasing power of the consumers. In addition to this, slow economic growth, rising production costs, and the persistent energy crises in the European region aided in the downward trajectory of the prices of vinyl chloride.

North America

The vinyl chloride market fluctuated in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 in North America. The uncertain energy production costs, sluggish real estate market affecting the downstream polyvinyl chloride market and rise in inventories led to the decline in the prices of vinyl chloride. Certain manufacturing plants were forced to shut their production as the clouds of recession hovered over the region negatively affecting consumer confidence in the market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Vinyl Chloride are expected to decline in the upcoming quarter. The demand from the downstream polyvinyl chloride industry is estimated to remain sluggish along with the rise in inflation and high production costs which will cause the vinyl chloride market to follow a downward trajectory.
 

Vinyl Chloride Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

Due to the high cost of ethylene, vinyl chloride prices increased in the first quarter of 2022. Vinyl Chloride production costs increased as a result of a lack of raw materials, which put pressure on downstream businesses to meet market demands. In China, vinyl chloride costs in the first quarter of 2022 averaged 1471 USD/MT.

In Q2, 2022, the price of vinyl chloride increased due to the high cost of the feedstock ethylene. The cost of producing vinyl chloride increased this quarter as a result of inadequate inventory availability and a crippled supply of raw materials from abroad. Moreover, several scheduled maintenance shutdowns at chemical plants contributed to an increase in vinyl chloride prices in Asia.

Europe

Due to strong demand from PVC producers downstream, vinyl chloride price trend increased in Europe. Due to a continuing shortfall, the prices of all downstream derivatives of ethylene increased during this quarter. In Germany, the cost of vinyl chloride was estimated at 1383 USD/MT FOB Hamburg in March.

Vinyl chloride prices increased in Europe as a result of strong demand from the PVC sector downstream. The uptick in the inflation rate put upward pressure on the downstream businesses in the European region. In Q2 2022, substantial inflation in Europe contributed to a trend of rising vinyl chloride costs.

North America

Prices for vinyl chloride in North America's first quarter of 2022 remained stable, supported by steady demand from PVC makers further upstream. During the last week of the first quarter in the USA, vinyl chloride prices were estimated at 1311 USD/MT.

Due to strong offtakes from downstream PVC manufacturers, vinyl chloride prices in the North American region remained stable during the second quarter of 2022. A jump in the price movement of vinyl chloride was also caused by an increase in demand from the primary downstream PVC sector and a high rate of inflation.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Vinyl Chloride. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.