Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of SLES (Sodium Lauryl Ether Sulfate) in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Asia

The Asian ammonium nitrate market saw swift variations in prices during the first quarter of the year 2024. The Indian market was relatively more stable compared to the Chinese market. The Chinese ammonium nitrate industry saw a subtle yet regular downfall during the given period.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Chart

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The major jerk came from the downstream fertilizer industry; the winter months saw lesser fertilizer demands from the farming sector which in turn affected the ammonium nitrate suppliers with dull downstream demands. In the Indian market, on the other hand, a more equaled supply and demand outlook was witnessed. Suppliers here were cautious with bulk purchases, and the upstream costs were also supportive. Demands were modest yet consistent; thus, the ammonium nitrate prices were more buoyant in the Indian market.

Europe

The European ammonium nitrate market remained riddled with the dull downstream approach. Suppliers didn’t have much room to experiment as the domestic market was constantly putting them under pressure. The international trade was also mostly subjected to the freight and logistic challenges in the waters.

The various armed conflicts were already impacting the regional trade when the piracy challenges arrived in the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean made the situation worse. Because of this, the inventories remained bulked up and maintained a downward pressure on the ammonium nitrate price trend.

North America

The North American market behavior for ammonium nitrate was not much different from its Asian and European counterparts. The various geopolitical tensions hurdled the industry in the American markets as well. Wars in the Middle East and Europe were making it difficult for the American economy to completely focus on self-growth. Initially, the prices were drowning as the demands hit rock bottom in the winter months. However, some slight improvement was seen during the latter phase of the said quarter from the fertilizer industry. Overall, a varying price curve was witnessed in Q1’24.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current state of geopolitical tensions, the trade situations are likely to complicate even more going forward. Not much improvement is anticipated in the Ammonium Nitrate market going forward.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The ammonium nitrate price trend followed the trend of the downstream fertilizer industries and feedstock ammonia. There was a significant uptick in the production of ammonium nitrate during the last quarter of 2023, especially in China. However, the rates of export declined by a great margin, raising the cost of the products. On the other hand, this was not the sole detrimental factor in dictating the trajectory of ammonium nitrate prices, as the sloppy cost of crude oil and excess availability of fertilizers in the region proved antagonistic to the growth of ammonium nitrate price trend.

Europe

The downturn of fertilizer industries towards the ammonium nitrate market was evidently visible in the trajectory of its price trend in the fourth quarter of 2023. The trading of ammonium nitrate was also only based on the need-to basis, and further, the adverse weather conditions disrupted the pattern of the agriculture sector, hampering the market scenario of ammonium nitrate and its prices. It was expected that the planting season would support the ammonium nitrate prices, but the material's ample availability proved to be a hindrance in the growth of ammonium nitrate price trend.

North America

In North America, the condition of ammonium nitrate prices was slightly better than in the above regions as the prices attained stagnancy instead of a steep decline. Limited export activities and rising stockpiles concerned the traders in this quarter but with some stable demand, they were able to maintain their existent price quotations. However, the loss of shipments from Wyoming to California and Panama Canal issues challenged the export rates of ammonium nitrate and thus restricted its upward movement.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ammonium Nitrate are estimated to struggle with the dipping cost of crude material and excessive availability of the product in the global markets.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the July-September of 2023

Asia

In the Asia Pacific countries, the demand for ammonium nitrate was weak on account of poor purchasing from both the domestic and overseas industries. There was a slight relief from the side of coal and ammonia’s rising prices, but they were also unable to support the falling trajectory of ammonium nitrate prices. However, as the quarter progressed, the demand from the downstream industries improved as the fertilizer sector escalated with an improvement in the confidence of consumers. The end phase also witnessed a surge in the cost of feedstock materials that, in turn, resulted in a rise in the prices of ammonium nitrate.

Europe

In European countries, after a string of consistent downfall of the ammonium nitrate prices in the initial months of the third quarter, the trajectory of the ammonium nitrate graph inclined with increasing raw materials cost and strong demand for ammonium nitrate and its related products.

This uptick in the prices was also supported by the limited supply of products, resulting in broadening the gap between supply and demand. Along with this, the higher prices of gas and energy raised the production costs by multiple folds and thus caused the prices of ammonium nitrate to incline.

North America

The price trend of ammonium nitrate followed a bullish trend throughout the majority of the third quarter of 2023. However, lower water levels in many of the export-related rivers in North America and poor weather conditions depleted its demand from the fertilizers sector. On the other hand, the consistently inclining cost of feedstock materials, natural gas, and overseas procurement rates supported the positive movement of the ammonium nitrate price graph.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Ammonium nitrate is expected to follow an uncertain path on account of fluctuations in the end-user demand and effectiveness of supply chains.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Ammonium Nitrate prices fluctuated in the Asian market, majorly swinging on the lower side. The price trend for Ammonium Nitrate had a stable start, and the spot prices averaged around 4300 RMB/MT towards the end of January’23 in the Chinese domestic market. But the steep decline in feedstock ammonia and coal prices didn’t support the cost. The decline in upstream costs caused the prices to decline amid stable demands. Ammonium Nitrate closed the second quarter with an average spot price of about 4060 RMB/MT in June’23.

Europe

The European market witnessed declining trend for the majority of the first half of 2023. Declining ammonia prices remained the major reason behind the dull price trend of Ammonium Nitrate. European inventories were oversaturated with Ammonium Nitrate, and downstream demands were consistently sullen. The supplies greatly dominated over offtakes, which, combined with persistently low feedstock prices, kept the market down.

North America

The North American ammonium nitrate market behaved no differently from other global markets. Market activities were almost nil. There were bearish demands from downstream fertilizer industries both in domestic and international markets. To top it the falling prices of both feedstock ammonia and nitric acid further aided the falling prices. Overall, the Ammonium Nitrate market performed very poorly in the said period.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the Ammonium Nitrate market is not expected to improve anytime soon, as demand projections do not look promising. Even if demands rise, there is ample stocked product to cater to it.

Ammonium Nitrate Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

After maintaining two years of continuous highs, fertilizers prices began to decline worldwide. The production cost averages for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash supplies have dropped nearly 16% in August compared to June 2022. The current drop in fertilizer prices was reflective of the present economic conditions. The higher prices have caused the farmers to decrease the planned acreage for the upcoming sowing season causing the demand and hence the prices to dwindle.

Also, energy prices, specifically natural gas affected the price trend for nitrogen-based fertilizers, particularly ammonia. The lower prices of ammonium nitrate were the direct result of growing stockpiles after the pandemic-related supply disruptions and deserted market transactions.

The prices of ammonium nitrate averaged 4300 RMB/MT in July and went down to 3800 RMB/MT in September 2022. The same trend continued in the fourth quarter,  however, the prices stabilized slightly in the second half of Q4. The prices rose steadily as the cost pressure returned along with new demand. The price of ammonium nitrate averaged around 4600-4700 RMB/MT towards the end of December’22.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of ammonium nitrate is highly likely to stay stable/firm with periodic fluctuations. With downstream procurement increasing, the prices are expected to rise in the longer term.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

During the current forecast season, ammonium nitrate prices in India increased constantly. The shortage of raw materials and low imports due to reduced contracted volumes because of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war inflated the price in the domestic arena. Compared to the Indian counterpart, the aniline market of China reported sluggish growth.

With the Chinese government easing the Covid-19 restrictions, the factories started operating at enhanced rates churning more products. Also, the export restrictions imposed by the government to stabilize the domestic supply led the market to reach an equilibrium. Hence, the prices increased slightly and averaged 4600-5000 RMB/MT domestically.

Europe

The high price of natural gas due to the ongoing confrontations has led to the acute energy crisis in Europe, raising the commodities' costs. Due to sanctions against Russia and Belarus, the price of ammonia, nitric acid and fertilizers are constantly rising in Europe. Per ton price of ammonium nitrate averaged 964-972 USD in this current quarter.

North America

Ammonium nitrate prices were towards the higher end of the scale in the US due to the difference between the supply-demand dynamics. The upstream sectors are facing an energy crisis with the rising natural gas price and inflated freight charges. Hence, they are not able to fulfill the ever-increasing feed demand from the downstream industries. The price for aniline averaged FOB $980/MT in June 2022.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

Nitric acid is a raw material of ammonium nitrate. On March 28, the average price of nitric acid was 2316 RMB/MT and 2216 RMB/MT on March 1. In March, nitric acid climbed by 4.15%. Ningxia Runxia energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. produced 150000 concentrated acids and 98 concentrated nitric acid annually as of March 28.

The factory's price per tonne was 2350 RMB. Shipping nitric acid was difficult, and there was less building in the downstream. The factory quotation of concentrated nitric acid was 2400 RMB/MT at Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co., Ltd., and the nitric acid shipping was satisfactory. Ammonium nitrate prices follow the pricing trend of the raw materials.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Ammonium nitrate prices remained stable in the fourth quarter due to strong local demand and growing raw material costs. While supply was insufficient to fulfill the region's entire demand, the fertilizer and mining sectors maintained a high level of demand.

Additionally, increased input materials, ammonia costs, inflationary pressure, and logistical restrictions all played a role in this price increase.The rates were holding at 68740 INR/MT Ex-Mumbai in December, following a major price increase. Additionally, China's recent restrictions on fertilizer shipments raised worldwide concerns.

Europe

Ammonia prices surged in the fourth quarter of 2021 and are now on course to set a new European record. The high prices of ammonia and natural gas in Europe pushed ammonium nitrate prices higher in the region. Ammonia prices are increasing as a result of the natural gas shortage situation and reduced supplies from Russia amid mounting tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war.

North America

In this quarter, the chemical was in great demand in the North American economy. During this time period, escalating ammonia prices, coupled with strong demand from diverse fields such as DAP and Urea, had an effect on ammonium nitrate prices. Additionally, the rising price of natural gas had an effect on the prices of numerous fertilizers in the United States.

The price of anhydrous ammonia increased throughout December in the US and settled at 1280 USD /MT, increasing ammonium nitrate prices as well. Additionally, global farmers' budgets were being squeezed by input expenses such as fertilizer, fuel, and transportation.

Latin America

Russia, the world's largest fertiliser exporter, imposed a two-month export ban on the chemical. The decision could result in a reduction in fertiliser supply, particularly to South America, which is in the midst of its growth season. Russia’s export prohibition on ammonium nitrate is meant to keep more of its fertiliser supplies indigenous and is an attempt to control domestic prices.

The move comes on the heels of China's suspension of phosphate fertiliser shipments until June 2022. Brazil is by far Russia's largest importer of ammonium nitrate and this move can affect its prices in Brazil.

For the First, Second, and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

During the March quarter, Asian countries saw growing interest for ammonium nitrate fertilizer from the domestic agriculture sector. With the start of harvest season Zaid in India, and buoyed attitudes following a reasonably strong crop in the preceding quarter, demand for the  chemical in the Indian industry improved significantly. Indian imports increased year on year in Q1 2021. Meanwhile, a similar trend was observed in the Chinese market, where seasonal demand remained continuously strong.

During the second quarter, the market saw strong demand from the domestic economy, backed by high offtake from end use segments. In India, the market for the chemical was continuously strong throughout the quarter, while feedstock ammonia prices increased significantly as a result of high demand and insufficient supply.

While in China, local prices stayed persistently firm as the country's seasonal demand approached. However, rising ammonia prices had an effect on the country's ammonium nitrate prices throughout this time period.

The market experienced an upward bounce in Q3 2021, accompanied by a sharp increase in upstream ammonia pricing and robust offtake from downstream segments. In India, the price increased exponentially throughout the quarter, owing to the sharp increase in raw material costs coupled with strong domestic demand.

Additionally, India's fertilizer inventory was insufficient to fulfill seasonal demand requirements, which resulted in an increase in the product's price during this time period. To alleviate farmers' price burdens, the government made measures to rein in frequent price changes for the chemical in the area.

Additionally, China's limits on fertilizer exports worried merchants about supply. As a result, ammonium nitrate prices reached 1662.83 USD/MT in September, a substantial increase from July.

Europe

Spring's arrival boosted market sentiments in Europe, as demand remained consistently robust throughout the quarter. However, in other locations, unfavorable climate conditions temporarily halted agricultural activity, which quickly recovered. Thus, prices increased significantly in Europe for practically all fertilizers, including ammonium nitrate, particularly in the UAN fertilizers segment, which was shown to have a larger demand than other alternatives.

During Q2, the European market saw strong demand for the chemical. Yara, a significant producer, recently revealed their revised seasonal rates for Europe. Surprisingly, the corporation offered the chemical at a cheaper price than previously offered.

Prices increased significantly in the European market in Q3 2021, as demand for fertilizers from both the domestic and global markets increased. Consistent increases in the prices of raw materials on the international market pushed up ammonium nitrate prices throughout the region. Additionally, higher freight costs and rising demands for ammonium nitrate led to an upward trend in Europe.

North America

Throughout Q1 2021, the North American market suffered a severe scarcity of the chemical. Following the winter storm Uri's February impact on the US Gulf Coast, the accessibility of feedstocks ammonia and nitric acid decreased significantly as a result of reduced manufacturing activity.

However, demand for fertilizers halted for more than a month during this time period due to snow and heavy rains. This demand improved significantly in March, and the overall prices increased by more than 20% across Nebraska farms during the quarter.

The chemical was in high demand in the North American market in the second quarter. A large company in the United States reported steady offtakes from the domestic fertilizer market in May, as the climate conditions improved for farming.

Additionally, rising ammonia prices in the face of strong demand from various verticals such as DAP and urea influenced ammonium nitrate prices throughout this time period. Additionally, shifting natural gas prices had an effect on the prices of several fertilizers in the United States, notably ammonium nitrate prices.

The market remained strong in Q3 2021, owing to increased demand from the agriculture sector. As the economic growth progressed toward pre-pandemic levels, ammonium nitrate prices increased. Supplies remained scarce throughout the quarter, owing to higher upstream ammonia costs as a result of the Ida hurricane, which made landfall on the Gulf Coast of the United States of America in late August.

Latin America

Brazil initiated discussions to increase fertilizer production for the indigenous agriculture industry, but progress slowed down due to the country's high reliance on imports. Problems in negotiating for the natural gas required to produce nitrogen is one of the causes for Brazil's low fertilizer production and high price of ammonium fertilizers.

Domestic consumption for inputs had been robust, while the Brazilian Real's depreciation against the US Dollar increased the cost of imports. Brazil's fertilizer imports exceeded estimates, reaching 41.6 million metric tonnes in 2021, an increase of 38.9% from 34.2 million metric tonnes in 2020.

For the Year 2020

Asia

Ammonium Nitrate (AN) demand in India surged dramatically with the advent of the Rabi season. India obtained AN from a variety of key suppliers, including Russia. It did not, however, result in substantial supply interruptions throughout the region. Rabi season in India also impacted the AN demand in Europe, as significant quantities were diverted to India from various nations.

There were no cases of force majeure or plant closures, as European firms maintained uninterrupted output and met domestic demand. October's increase in AN use missed the mark of market estimates due to limited harvesting, market uncertainty, and financial concerns. November began slowly, but demand picked up toward the end.

Europe

Fertilizer prices in Europe improved dramatically in the third quarter of 2021. The prices in European markets increased as a result of rising feedstock prices, namely Ammonia, rising input costs which came as a result of the energy crisis, and rising Natural gas prices, a critical component in fertilizer synthesis. Additionally, rising freight costs and a supply shortage of shipping containers wreaked havoc on ammonium nitrate prices in the third quarter. Nitrogen fertilizers were scarce and in high demand worldwide in Q4.

North America

Supply remained robust in Q4 despite a fall in demand as the US harvest season came to an end. Demand decreased continuously as harvesting progressed, however farmers continued to benefit from favorable prices of the chemical. Winter's early arrival and progression resulted in an abrupt cessation of additional fertilizer application in fields.

Latin America

In 2020, the country's demand for NPK fertilizer, of which ammonium nitrate is a critical feedstock, reached 41 million tonnes, with imports accounting for 80% of this. Meanwhile, domestic production reached its lowest level in years, down 11% from the previous year.

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