July arabica coffee fell to a 19-month low amid expectations of a record Brazil crop. USDA FAS forecast a record 71.9 million bags for 2026/27, up 14% y/y. The improved global supply outlook is bearish, signaling potential further price declines.
Drier weather in Brazil has accelerated the coffee harvest pace, with Cooxupe reporting 81.1% completion as of mid-August. Below-normal rainfall in Minas Gerais is speeding field operations, increasing near-term supply availability and weighing on futures. ICE arabica inventories have fallen to a multi-year low, providing some offsetting support.
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee | Colombia | FOB | USD 8,539.96/KG | August 2026 |
| Coffee | Brazil | FOB | USD 7,107.36/KG | August 2026 |
| Coffee | USA | FOB | USD 7,148.35/KG | August 2026 |
| Coffee | Guinea | FOB | USD 7,812.05/KG | August 2026 |
| Coffee | UK | FOB | USD 8,099.19/KG | August 2026 |
| Coffee | Colombia | FOB | USD 8,455.40/KG | July 2026 |
| Coffee | Brazil | FOB | USD 7,072.00/KG | July 2026 |
| Coffee | USA | FOB | USD 7,147.85/KG | July 2026 |
| Coffee | Guinea | FOB | USD 7,773.19/KG | July 2026 |
| Coffee | UK | FOB | USD 8,058.90/KG | July 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Coffee prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
In Colombia, the average price of Coffee was ~USD 8,455.40/KG (FOB) in July and ~USD 8,539.96/KG in August, showing a ~1.0% increase. Brazil recorded a smaller rise, with average prices moving up about 0.5% from ~USD 7,072.00/KG (FOB) to ~USD 7,107.36/KG. Prices jumped in July after wet weather in Brazil disrupted harvesting and drying, raising concerns over bean quality and slowing exports. Forecasts of a very strong El Niño added to fears for Brazil's next flowering, while certified arabica stocks fell to their lowest level in decades. In August, prices stayed high but swung widely, rising on El Niño worries before good rainfall in Brazil reversed the gains. Colombian coffee held firmer, partly because an earthquake in Colombia delayed supply flows. In September, prices fell steadily as the market focused on a record crop outlook, with world production forecast at 189.7 million bags for the new season. Robusta supply also grew, as Vietnam's exports jumped 87.4% compared with a year earlier.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, in the near term, coffee prices are likely to stay under pressure from strong supply prospects, though weather risks and low certified stocks may cause short-term rallies.
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In Brazil, the prices of Coffee were ~BRL 34,231.54/kg and ~BRL 32,587.88/kg, respectively, showing a ~4.8% decrease in the first two months of Q2'26. The decline was mainly linked to an improved Brazilian crop outlook as production recovered strongly and Arabica availability improved. This reduced supply-risk premiums and encouraged sellers to accept lower price levels. In Guinea, the prices of Coffee were ~GNF 63,892,500.00/kg in April and ~GNF 60,882,270.00/kg in May, showing a ~4.7% decrease, following the same global downtrend. However, Robusta stayed relatively firm because Vietnam remained central to supply and certified stocks were low. Vietnam’s April exports reached a record April level, improving availability and reducing panic buying in Asia. Retail demand remained steady, especially in North America, where weekly coffee consumption stayed high, but roasters still faced freight disruptions.
Coffee is a well-known brewed drink that is produced from roasted coffee beans. These coffee beans are the seeds of berries belonging to certain Coffea species. It is darkly colored, bitter, moderately acidic, and has a stimulating effect in humans as it is a rich source of caffeine. As it has become one of the most popular drinks in the world, coffee plants are now cultivated in over 70 countries, mainly in the equatorial regions of the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and Africa.
Starbucks Coffee Company, Nestlé SA, Unilever, Chameleon Cold-Brew, Kohana Coffee, High Brew Coffee
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
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Coffee beans are turned into a beverage in a process consisting of four basic steps. First, the coffee beans are roasted, which are then ground. The ground coffee is then combined with hot water, that is, brewed, and finally the liquid Coffee is separated from the used grounds. Although, at homes, it is generally prepared from already roasted, or already roasted and ground beans.
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The report is a detailed study of cost analysis of caffeine extraction from coffee waste.
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