Coffee prices are moving higher, supported by the delayed 2026/27 harvest in Brazil, which is behind both last year's pace and the five-year average. Supply concerns are intensified by heavy rains disrupting fieldwork, farmers holding back sales, and the potential impact of a strong El Niño weather pattern. Market volatility persists due to illiquid trading conditions in the futures market.
Coffee Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Latest News, Price Drivers, Market Insights & Supply Demand Analysis
Written ByPragati Agarwal
Coffee Price Trend Q2 2026
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coffee | Colombia | FOB | USD 7,131.00/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | Brazil | FOB | USD 6,476.00/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | USA | FOB | USD 6,833.50/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | Guinea | FOB | USD 6,954.00/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | UK | FOB | USD 6,823.50/KG | May 2026 |
| Coffee | Colombia | CIF | USD 7376/KG | April 2026 |
| Coffee | Brazil | CIF | USD 6917/KG | April 2026 |
| Coffee | USA | CIF | USD 7,177/KG | April 2026 |
| Coffee | Guinea | CIF | USD 7,302/KG | April 2026 |
| Coffee | UK | CIF | USD 7,167/KG | April 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest coffee prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
- Coffee prices declined in Q2’26 as Brazil’s larger crop outlook pressured Arabica, while Robusta remained firmer on tighter replacement supply.
- Feedstock pressure eased with better crop expectations, but fertilizer, freight, fuel, and low certified stocks kept delivered costs elevated.
- Downstream demand stayed resilient in retail and packaged coffee, though buyers resisted higher physical premiums and delayed aggressive restocking.
In Brazil, the prices of Coffee were ~BRL 34,231.54/kg and ~BRL 32,587.88/kg, respectively, showing a ~4.8% decrease in the first two months of Q2'26. The decline was mainly linked to an improved Brazilian crop outlook as production recovered strongly and Arabica availability improved. This reduced supply-risk premiums and encouraged sellers to accept lower price levels. In Guinea, the prices of Coffee were ~GNF 63,892,500.00/kg in April and ~GNF 60,882,270.00/kg in May, showing a ~4.7% decrease, following the same global downtrend. However, Robusta stayed relatively firm because Vietnam remained central to supply and certified stocks were low. Vietnam’s April exports reached a record April level, improving availability and reducing panic buying in Asia. Retail demand remained steady, especially in North America, where weekly coffee consumption stayed high, but roasters still faced freight disruptions.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, near term, prices may remain volatile, with larger Brazil supply capping gains and logistics, fertilizer, and stock risks supporting local markets.
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Coffee prices moved sharply higher as Brazil's 2026/27 coffee harvest lags behind last year's pace and the five-year average. Heavy rains have disrupted fieldwork, tightening near-term supply and supporting an upward price direction.
September arabica and robusta futures slid sharply after Cecafe reported Brazil’s June green coffee exports jumped 14.4% year-on-year. Illiquid trading following ICE margin hikes exaggerated moves, while concerns over El Niño and a delayed harvest could tighten supply going forward.
The Brazilian real strengthened to a 4-week high against the dollar, discouraging export sales and supporting coffee futures. A delayed harvest in Brazil and falling ICE inventories add bullish pressure. El Niño risks further threaten future production, sustaining upside momentum.
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- Global coffee prices showed a fluctuating trend, supported by intermittent supply tightness and geopolitical disruptions, while capped by improving production outlook.
- Feedstock dynamics remained mixed as weather variations in Brazil and supply concerns supported prices, while higher output expectations and rising supplies limited gains.
- Downstream demand stayed cautious as elevated prices and rising logistics costs due to the Middle East conflict reduced consumption intensity and kept buying activity measured.
Coffee prices moved within a volatile range, influenced by contrasting supply signals and selective trade flow shifts. Support came from tightening availability and export disruptions, while downside pressure persisted due to expectations of higher production and increased supplies from key producers. From the Indian perspective, export volumes declined by 4.47% to 3.84 lakh tonnes in 2025, while export value rose by 22.50% to USD 2,058.06 million, reflecting stronger price realization. Demand conditions remained subdued as high prices reduced discretionary consumption, limiting aggressive procurement and keeping market sentiment balanced.
Additional upward pressure emerged from geopolitical disruptions, particularly the Middle East conflict impacting key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. This disruption increased freight, insurance, and fuel costs, tightening global supply chains and raising import costs for coffee-consuming regions. Supply uncertainty and logistical delays further supported price gains as market participants reacted to potential shortages and rising transportation costs.
About Coffee
Coffee is a well-known brewed drink that is produced from roasted coffee beans. These coffee beans are the seeds of berries belonging to certain Coffea species. It is darkly colored, bitter, moderately acidic, and has a stimulating effect in humans as it is a rich source of caffeine. As it has become one of the most popular drinks in the world, coffee plants are now cultivated in over 70 countries, mainly in the equatorial regions of the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and Africa.
Coffee Product Detail
Supplier Database
Starbucks Coffee Company, Nestlé SA, Unilever, Chameleon Cold-Brew, Kohana Coffee, High Brew Coffee
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America
United States and Canada
Latin America
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa
South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Coffee Production Process
- Production of Coffee from Coffee Beans
Coffee beans are turned into a beverage in a process consisting of four basic steps. First, the coffee beans are roasted, which are then ground. The ground coffee is then combined with hot water, that is, brewed, and finally the liquid Coffee is separated from the used grounds. Although, at homes, it is generally prepared from already roasted, or already roasted and ground beans.
Frequently Asked Questions
Coffee prices weakened during Q1 2026 after reaching historically elevated levels in 2025. Improved global supply expectations, recovering production in Vietnam, and forecasts for record world coffee output weighed on market sentiment. Arabica and Robusta benchmark prices both declined during the quarter, although weather risks in Brazil and Colombia and historically low global inventories continued to limit deeper price corrections.
The coffee outlook for 2026 remains mixed. USDA forecasts record global production of 178.8 million 60-kg bags in 2025/26, supported by recovery in Vietnam and record output in Indonesia and Ethiopia. However, Brazil and Colombia continue facing weather-related challenges. Despite higher production, global ending stocks are projected to fall to around 20.1 million bags, keeping supply conditions relatively tight.
Coffee prices were influenced by improving export availability, changing crop expectations, and recovering Vietnamese production. However, lower production in Brazil and Colombia, weather-related risks, and declining global inventories limited stronger downward pressure. Market sentiment remained sensitive to both supply recovery and historically tight stock levels.
Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, Ethiopia, India, and Honduras are major players in the coffee market. Brazil remains the largest producer, while Vietnam dominates Robusta supply. Colombia is important for Arabica, and Ethiopia remains a major African origin. India and Honduras are also important exporters, with production shaped by weather, crop cycles, and pest pressure.
Brazil's first official 2026 crop estimate projected production at 66.2 million bags, up 17.1% from 2025. Producing area was forecast to increase 4.1%, while productivity was expected to improve 12.4% to 34.2 bags per hectare. Because Brazil is the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, the forecast significantly improved global supply expectations and weighed on coffee market sentiment.
Coffee trees generally begin commercial production 3–4 years after planting, while cherries require around 7–9 months from flowering to harvest. Arabica performs best at 18–22°C and Robusta at 22–30°C. Seasonal rainfall patterns strongly influence flowering, fruit development, yield potential, and harvest timing, making weather one of the most important drivers of coffee supply.
Weather stress was the main environmental factor affecting coffee plants in Q1 2026. Brazil’s Arabica crop was affected by drought and high temperatures, while Colombia faced excessive rain and cloud cover that disrupted flowering. Wet conditions also increased leaf rust risk, though resistant varieties helped limit detection. India faced dry spells, strong winds, and excess pre-monsoon rain.
Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop outlook showed improved area and productivity. Producing area was estimated to rise 4.1%, while productivity was expected to increase 12.4% to 34.2 bags per hectare. This helped lift Brazil’s production estimate to 66.2 million processed bags, with Arabica at 44.1 million bags and conilon at 22.1 million bags.
Vietnam’s Q1 2026 export performance added pressure to coffee sentiment by improving global availability. Official customs data showed coffee exports at 590,498 tonnes from January to March 2026, up 12.5% year-on-year, while export value declined. This indicated better shipment volume but weaker pricing compared with the previous year’s high base.
Procurement Resource employs a structured methodology combining primary research, secondary market intelligence, analytical models, and validation processes to assess coffee prices and market trends. Evaluations incorporate crop conditions, yields, inventories, export performance, trade flows, and value chain analysis, supported by continuous market monitoring and cross-verification.
About the Author
Pragati Agarwal
Senior Business Insights Analyst
Delivering price trend analysis and procurement market insights at Procurement Resource, with expertise in identifying commodity patterns, supporting purchasing strategies, and improving cost efficiency through actionable market intelligence.
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