Copper Price Trend and Forecast

Copper Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Copper in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Copper Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

The Asian copper market experienced significant weakness in Q3’24. China, traditionally a major copper importer, transformed into a net exporter due to substantially reduced domestic demand. The property sector, which typically accounts for nearly half of China's copper consumption, continued to show pronounced weakness. Manufacturing activity remained subdued, with bank lending hitting its lowest levels in 15 years.
 

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The market saw record-high copper exports, with Chinese smelters aggressively seeking overseas markets to mitigate domestic economic challenges. Shanghai copper premiums disappeared, and prices moved to a discount compared to international benchmarks, reflecting the region's economic struggles.

Europe

The European copper market, tracked by the London Metal Exchange, demonstrated significant price volatility in Q3’24. Prices experienced a substantial decline from mid-year peaks, driven by global economic uncertainties and reduced industrial demand. LME warehouse inventories tripled during the quarter, reaching their highest levels since September 2021. The market was characterized by oversupply and cautious industrial sentiment, with prices responding sensitively to global economic indicators and manufacturing activity levels.

North America

The North American copper market showed complex dynamics in Q3’24. Despite initial price pressures, the market maintained underlying optimism driven by potential technological and infrastructure developments. Significant import volumes characterized the quarter, with unusually high levels of copper entering the US market. The sector showed resilience through anticipated developments in AI data centres, electric vehicle infrastructure, and grid modernization projects. Price movements were influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy and broader economic recovery signals.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Copper market is anticipated to transition from its current surplus towards a potential deficit by 2025-2026, with long-term demand growth expected to be supported by decarbonization efforts, technological innovation, and critical infrastructure investments.
 

Copper Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

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Asia

Copper prices had a strong run throughout the first six months of the year 2024. Chinese market saw copper prices surging as the prices observed an approx.-15% jump, going from 9608 USD/MT in January’24 to 11082 USD/MT in June’24. China saw a two-year high in prices in May’24. A grave supply constraint pushed copper prices up in the Asian markets. One of the major producing countries, Chile, is facing operational challenges with declining ore grades and water supply issues.

Even though the demands in the aforementioned markets, particularly the Chinese markets, have been loosely unsupportive of the pricing outlook, the downturn in the manufacturing sector eventually pulled the prices down. However, fear of supply shortages has driven prices up as smelters face raw material scarcity. The unexpected tightening in global mine supply, notably due to issues at First Quantum’s mine in Panama, has removed approximately 4 million tonnes of copper from the annual supply. This global supply constraint has contributed to the upward pressure on prices.

Europe

Sentiments in the European copper markets were not very different from their Asian counterpart. The monthly average prices in the European markets went from about 8443 USD/MT in January’24 to around 10700 USD/MT in June’24. Ore shortages and policies promoting clean energy in the USA and Europe upsurged the downstream demand for copper at a time when the supplies were already tightened. Further, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict also kept the supplies constrained, thereby affecting the prices.

North America

The price trajectory for copper was not any different in the USA, as the prices were found to be surging here as well. A tight supply outlook and a weakened US dollar contributed to price increase. Further, the demand for copper was bolstered by green energy transitions and electric vehicles. In May’24, the USA experienced a particularly tight copper market, with futures trading at a premium due to logistical issues and speculative trading.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current supply and demand dynamics, the Copper prices are likely to remain on the same trajectory in the coming months.
 

Copper Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

Copper metal followed a stable trend in its prices during the third quarter of 2023. The market was mainly affected by the global economy's upturn and the industrial sector's slowing.

Along with the industrial sector, the rate of exports and imports also took a downturn in the third and fourth quarters of 2023 as the blockage of the Red Sea route delayed the shipments and led to the loss of trade. However, the fourth quarter witnessed a slight uptick with a rise in the demand for copper from the downstream industries. Further, the market momentum escalated due to increasing disruptions in the supply chains, favoring the stabilization of the copper price trend.

Europe

During the third and fourth quarters of 2023, the tightening of monetary policies and rising inflationary pressure prevented the growth of the copper price trend. The persistent challenges and tough competition from the US and Chinese imports prompted the traders to reduce their profit margins. Further, the rise in inventory levels and prominent decline in the sales of the automotive sector, along with subdued purchasing sentiments of consumers, depreciated the price trend of copper.

North America

In North America, the prices of copper took a downturn as the interest rates of the banking sector and the slow approach of the consumers impacted the market negatively. The strict economic policies and fluctuations in the market fundamentals also pushed the copper prices in the southward direction. Further, the weakening of the US dollar and the fall in economic indicators eventually restricted the momentum of the market and prices of copper.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Copper is estimated to decline in the upcoming quarters as the construction and automotive industries demand do not seem to improve in the upcoming quarters.
 

Copper Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Stay updated with the latest Copper prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

Copper prices fluctuated throughout the first half of 2023 in the Asian region. The upward spikes were attributed to the high demands from downstream industries like electronics and machinery, while the occasional and short-lived dips were attributed to the oversupplied inventories.

In the Chinese domestic market, the prices surged from January to February, with spot prices standing at around 10112 USD/MT (in Feb '23) but dipped in March as the Lunar New Year holidays reduced the factory operation days. Eventually, quarter 2 began with higher prices, but as the inventories leveled up, the prices again declined in the middle of the second quarter; in June '23, the average spot prices stood at around 9555 USD/MT.

Europe

After a whirlwind in 2022, the copper prices started stabilizing in early 2023. The war between Russia and Ukraine in the European backyard had disturbed the supply chains and disrupted trade, plus the skyrocketed energy prices inflicted heavy inflation on the entire region. Hence, alternate trade routes and supply chains were established, which facilitated trade, and crude oil prices also started stabilizing. In the discussed time frame, the Copper prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with spot prices averaging around 8395 USD/MT in June '23.

North America

The interest rates heightened in the US as two of its major banks collapsed, and the prices inclined in the first quarter; however, with regular movement, a stable price outlook was observed in the second quarter.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, given the current stable market dynamics, the Copper price trend are expected to continue wavering in a narrow range in the upcoming months.
 

Copper Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Copper prices mostly inclined in Asia during the last two quarters of 2022. the Chinese market witnessed some fluctuations in the third quarter, but the sentiments were still very positive, and the final quarter witnessed a consistent surge in prices. The surge in prices was attributed to the active revival efforts in the Chinese industries owing to the lockdown that severely affected economic activities.

Downstream electronics, petrochemicals, transportation, and machinery, etc. sectors posed good demands, which positively supported the market fundamentals. Metal ore refineries were also working to cater to these new demands. Overall, copper had a fair performance during the discussed time period.

Europe

The European copper market witnessed mixed price trend during the second half of the year 2022. Prices surged throughout; however, some fluctuations within a narrow range were seen in the middle of the said period. The final quarter witnessed a constant incline in prices. The beginning of the year saw a disruption in the copper market as Russia invaded Ukraine, disrupting trade sentiments for the entire region. The fluctuation in the latter half of the year indicated the market’s struggle to revive. Overall, the copper market remained anchored.

North America

Following in the European footsteps, Copper prices fluctuated in the American market as well. After wavering in the third quarter the prices inclined in the final quarter. Global high economic inflation had a strong effect on the American market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the consistently increasing demand for electrical products, Copper price trend are bound to rise in the upcoming months.
 

Copper Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

The cost of copper in the Chinese market weakened towards the end of the second quarter and averaged 70,045 RMB/MT. With the government lifting the covid restrictions, the factories started full-fledged production; however, due to the wait-and-see attitude of the downstream sectors, the price trend for the metal weakened.

Copper prices in the Indian market followed a similar trend. They went from 781.25 INR/kg in May to 700.40 INR/kg due to the fears of recession as the central banks worldwide are tightening their monetary policy to control inflation.

Europe

The US hiking the interest rate and the decreased production in China due to covid-19 restrictions fueled the global speculations about recession. Hence, the price of the metals are falling amid low demand from other sectors. In the London Metal Exchange, prices went from 10,247 USD/MT in April 2022 to around 8245 USD/MT in June 2022.

North America

Recently, a dip in metal prices has been seen in the US domestic arena due to the fears of a global recession. Also, the demand destruction triggered due to the recession speculations has further driven the prices down. For the said quarter, the prices averaged 4.32 USD/lb in the domestic arena.
 

Copper Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In the first quarter, copper prices varied and increased. At of the conclusion of fourth week of March, the spot copper price was 73,810 RMB/MT, up 0.39% from the start of the week's price of 73,521.67 RMB/MT, and up 12.03% year on year. Copper prices were on a significant upward trend during the quarter.

The market was characterized by extreme volatility. The LME proposed a ban on Russian copper entering warehouses, which exacerbated short-term price volatility. Retail sales of passenger automobiles in the narrow sense fell 10.4% year on year to 1.58 million units in March. On the 23rd march, prices decreased slightly to 73,455 RMB/MT.

Europe

The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.1% at 9,981 USD/MT, while the most-traded March copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was up 0.8% at 71,460 USD/MT (11,276.81 USD). In the near term, a rate rise may put downward pressure on metals, but if global economic growth remains strong, metals demand may not allow prices to remain low for long.

North America

Copper prices (wire) in the United States have varied between 3,800 USD/MT in 2020 and 9,600 USD/MT in March 2022. Primary metals' prices, like those of other commodities like as oil and gas, have risen considerably since the Covid epidemic. However, the global recovery since then has resulted in high demand for metals in industries such as building, telecommunications infrastructure, and manufacturing.
 

Copper Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In the final quarter of 2021, the manufacturing activities witnessed a drop. The production levels dipped as China observed power crunches in the wake of the ongoing energy crisis in the region. This affected the production of copper in the region which led to rapidly decreasing inventory levels of the commodity as demand surged high.

The disruptions in supply due to low inventory levels amidst high demand drove up the copper prices to close to 10,000 USD/MT rising by 36% since the beginning of the year. China imported approximately 4.06 lakh tonnes of the metal after a supply shortage of five months.

Europe 

In October 2021, copper prices in London hit 9135 USD/MT which increased further by the end of the year as supply shortages were reported from Peru.

North America

Copper prices kept fluctuating above 9000 USD/MT till the year end after hitting record high values in May 2021. High freight costs amidst delays in supply had caused prices to rise while there was hope for recovery in supply among investors.

Latin America

In Latin America, logistic problems were faced while exporting copper to other countries which added on to the woes of supply deficit. A copper production plant in Peru responsible for 2% of the global output had been shut down due to community issues which affected supply logistics. Labour strikes in Chile over wages had also halted operations in several mines in the region which also contributed to the supply shortage situations.
 

Copper Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarter of 2021

Asia

The majority of the demand was driven by China, which is responsible for 50% of the global consumption. The demand increased rapidly ahead of the winters which increased the prices globally. Copper prices hit as high as 10,000 USD/MT in 2021.

Europe 

Copper inventories in April had fallen by 10% to 155,100 MT as reported by the registered warehouses of London Metal Exchange. The demand increased as economies expanded and relied on sustainable development and thereby shifting to Electric Vehicles (EVs). As more car companies made EV commitments, the demand surged in the region. In Europe, prices hit 4.54 USD/lb amidst a recovering economy.

North America

Copper prices surged high as the economies recovered following the pandemic and as the vaccine emerged. They hit 10,700 USD/MT for the first time in ten years in the second quarter of 2021 followed by a fall to 9000 USD/MT in quarter 3.

Latin America

In Chile, the production had been hampered by the protests by mine workers against the President which raised concerns amidst low supplies, driving up the copper prices. The resurgence of Covid-19 also added on to the production and supply issues in Latin America.
 

Copper Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

Copper prices rebounded by the end of the year 2020, increasing by almost 18% since October and by 65% since March. The high demand in China, which is the largest consumer of copper in the world, drove up the prices. As the onshore market of China recovered rapidly, the end-user industry witnessed exceptionally high demands in the second half of the year.

The price by the year end had increased to 7600 USD/MT after recovering from the low prices of about 4500 USD/MT in the first half of the year due to the pandemic. The US dollar had been weak against the Chinese currency which drove up the inflation for metal. The production in Australia had been affected by the lockdowns.

Europe

The metal’s demand in Europe had fallen by 10% in 2020 in spite of the region being a major consumer of the commodity.

North America

Copper prices in North America hit the 6800 USD/MT mark in September 2020 rising by more than its price in March 2020 during which the prices fell due to the lockdown affecting the consumption levels in the region. The production had fallen during the first half of the year which reduced the global output by 1%. Production was hampered in Mexico, Canada and US.

Latin America

In Peru, the production had been hit by the lockdown imposed due to the pandemic as well as due to the poor weather conditions which disrupted the mining activities in the region bringing down the output by 20% in the first half of 2020. Chile emerged as one of the largest copper producers, witnessing record high production levels in the first half of the year with a 2.6% increase in production.

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