Hydrogen Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Hydrogen in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Hydrogen Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

In the past quarters, awareness about the rise in the use of alternative fuels rose in Asian countries. This rise in demand was fueled by fluctuations in the cost of traditional fuels and an uncertain trend in the region's economy. Both the Chinese and Indian government increased their expenditure in the hydrogen fuel sector, which gave the hydrogen price graph a strong momentum.

Hydrogen Price Chart

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Further, the South Korean and Japanese hydrogen traders have called for the finalization of contract for difference (CFD) schemes in order to assist the functioning of hydrogen project developers and increase their offtake agreements with potential customers. These initiatives are yet to showcase their effect; however, they have raised the desire of consumers in the hydrogen sector and thus had a positive influence on the hydrogen price trend.

Europe

The fall in the cost of natural gas and electricity has resulted in the fall in the production costs of hydrogen across European countries in the last quarter of 2023. On the other hand, the EU Hydrogen Bank has begun its operations, and in Q4 of 2023, it offered a total spending of €800 million to boost the demand for hydrogen in order to achieve its industrial decarbonization goals. The rising efforts of the government and the rise in consumer preference towards cleaner fuels have resulted in a rise in the fundamental dynamics of hydrogen price trend.

North America

The US government launched a number of initiatives to keep its prices of hydrogen fuel under a designated bracket in order to keep the fuel relevant to all economic classes. On the other hand, the production sector has received surplus investments which has helped the government to achieve its goal of capping hydrogen prices. Not only the investment sector but the shift in consumer preferences has also helped in the upstream movement of hydrogen industries.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Hydrogen are expected to showcase stability in the upcoming quarters as the demand from the consumer sector is firm and the number of investments in the sector also seems positive.

Hydrogen Price Trend for the July-September of 2023

Asia

The Asian hydrogen price trend experienced frequent market fluctuations during the third quarter of the year 2023. The first half of the quarter was relatively positive compared to the latter half. The initial surge in market trend was attributed to the rise in crude oil prices and an elevated demand from the downstream consumption sectors. Since the natural gas reforming process is widely employed to produce industrial hydrogen, their market behaviors closely align with each other.

The struggle for revival was very evident in the Chinese market, which was reflected in the initially speedy procurement of hydrogen from the steel and oil refining companies at the beginning of the third quarter.

However, as time progressed the hydrogen price graph started falling down owing to the decline in market prices. The demands didn’t rise continuously for the entire span and later stabilized at one point. However, with a regular influx of supplies, the inventory stocks started piling up compelling suppliers to discount the prices. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

Europe

The hydrogen price trend in Europe remained southward facing throughout the said period of Q3’23. With glutted supplies and tepid market offtakes, the hydrogen price index recorded disappointing numbers for the entire period. A fall in upstream costs because of some improvement in regional economic situation also added up to these sliding price trend.

North America

The North American hydrogen market was more influenced by the Asian hydrogen market since the price trend exhibited positive market behavior for the majority of the period. Some reverse fluctuations took place occasionally. However, general market sentiments remained positive.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Hydrogen price trend will continue to fluctuate going forward, given the uncertainties in the downstream demands and the global economy.

Hydrogen Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

In the Asian market, Hydrogen prices struggled throughout the first half of 2023, as the market was observed to be in a constant slump. Dull downstream demands from the consuming sectors were the biggest reason behind bearish sentiments, along with a decline in energy and production costs. After the lockdown was removed, Chinese industries were struggling to revive, but the trade sentiments were generally muted as a war in the European region significantly depreciated the export queries, and the manufacturing activities almost came to a standstill.

During the said period, holidays due to the Chinese Lunar New Year also limited the industrial activities for some time. So, with poor movement in stocks, limited to no queries, adjusted quotations, and declining production costs, the Hydrogen price trend were feeble throughout the said period.

Europe

The European Hydrogen market almost mimicked the Asian Hydrogen market sentiments with lackluster demands and excess supplies. A rapid decline in the upstream costs was the primary reason behind such disappointing market trend. A market release of 30 million barrels of crude oil by America from its strategic reserves changed the situation for this region, as it curbed the dependence on Russian oil to fulfill the energy requirements. Overall, the market performance was very poor.

North America

The American market could not defy the global market trend for hydrogen and sullen trend were observed during the discussed period. With skyrocketing interest rates, the downstream sectors registered fewer demands, and the prices remained in a slump throughout.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, not much change is anticipated in the hydrogen market situation going forward as, given the current market conditions, the present inventories will easily be able to cater to whatever demand is posed by the user industries.

Hydrogen Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

In H2 2022 Hydrogen market in the Asian region had a good start. Good downstream demand kept the hydrogen price prospects elevated. After an initial rise, the hydrogen price trend turned volatile considering the fluctuations in market demand, petrochemical prices, and government-mandated norms. Even with a strong hoarding sentiment during the holiday season in Q4, downstream demand remained stagnant, thereby keeping the price trend for hydrogen on the lower end of the scale.

Europe

Europe witnessed major economic turmoil in 2022 owing to the current Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the Western sanctions on Russian exports, the gas prices took an unprecedented high impacting the hydrogen market directly. But as the year-end approached the supply remained sufficient but the demand dynamics fluctuated with the hydrogen market recording a declining trend with occasional fluctuations.

North America

Hydrogen price trend for the North American market resembled those of the European market for H2 2022. Rising demand and higher energy prices pushed the market reasonably up. But as the energy prices normalized in the last quarter the hydrogen prices too started declining. Overall, demand and supply dynamics stabilized further, and the hydrogen market remained afloat.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, as the supply chains are normalizing, and energy security is being ensured hydrogen prices are expected to fall further and the declining trend seems to continue for the next quarter as well.

Hydrogen Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

The price trend for Hydrogen soared globally throughout the said period. Hydrogen is not immune to the inflationary pressure the other energy sources felt throughout the year’s first fast as an aftermath of surging crude oil and gas prices. In the US, the cost of electrolytic Hydrogen shot up to 16.80 USD/kg due to the high-cost inflation triggered by the energy crisis. However, commercially most of the Hydrogen is still produced from natural gas.

Conventional Hydrogen, also known as grey hydrogen, averaged 10 USD/kg during the said period. The hydrogen producers faced a double whammy of high natural gas prices and staggering electricity prices, which affected their profit margins. Hence, in order to protect the profit margins, the high operating costs were passed to the consumers, thereby inflating the price trend for Hydrogen globally.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Hydrogen. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.