Iron Price Trend and Forecast

Iron Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Iron in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Iron Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Asia

During the first half of 2024, iron prices experienced a downward trend primarily driven by weak steel demand in China, the top consumer of iron. In the first quarter, iron prices were relatively higher, supported by improved demand for steel both domestically and internationally, which led to increased utilization of steel mills and higher production and export levels in China. However, by the end of the quarter, prices began to decline as the Chinese government reiterated its commitment to controlling steel production to reduce carbon emissions.
 

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Entering the second quarter, the market saw continued downward pressure due to oversupply resulting from increased global shipments and poor demand recovery, exacerbated by China's ongoing property crisis and steel mills' production cuts. Geopolitical tensions and rising production costs also contributed to this trend. Despite intermittent market support from potential stimuli in China's real estate sector, the lack of substantial economic incentives and the oversupply of iron led to negative price dynamics. As supply increased and steel demand weakened with the seasonal slowdown, iron prices fell further, with analysts projecting continued declines due to the oversupply and muted demand expectations.

Europe

The iron market in the European countries also showcased similar sentiments as the global markets. The pricing patterns moved southwards under the strong influence of weak demand from most downstream sectors, particularly the struggling construction sector. Further, the economic expectations of manufacturers, traders, and consumers were unmatched by the persistent escalating pressure of inflation and surging bank interest charges. The struggling Chinese industries also failed to extend any support, leading to the southward movement of iron prices.

North America

Iron prices in the USA faced downward pressure due to a combination of domestic and international factors. Initially, prices saw some fluctuations as market sentiment was influenced by China's government plans to issue long-term bonds, which briefly boosted expectations for economic support. However, these gains were short-lived, and the market quickly turned bearish. Anticipation of seasonally lower demand in China, the top consumer of iron, contributed to the declining prices. Furthermore, the announcement by the US government of significant tariff increases on various Chinese steel and aluminum products further pressured the market. These tariffs dampened market sentiment, affecting the steel and related ferrous markets. Additionally, high stock levels at ports and signs of softening demand for steel in China led to diminished trader interest in stockpiling iron, further contributing to the overall price weakness throughout the first half of the year.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Iron is expected to continue its downward trail in the quarters ahead, too, with minimal support from the downstream industries and a lack of momentum in the construction sector.
 

Iron Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

Iron prices were observed to be oscillating throughout the second half of the year 2023. Quarter three performed relatively well compared to the fourth quarter. Mining restrictions in the Asian region because of environmental concerns limited the supply volumes at the beginning of Q3; this affected the market dynamics for that entire quarter by adding to the upstream pressure for suppliers.

India witnessed great infrastructure development during this time, which escalated iron consumption and further fueled the price trend. However, as time progressed, the market situation reversed completely. The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and civilian unrest in the Gulf complicated the global trade situation immensely, and the demands started taking a massive hit. Due to this, the price trend started pivoting downwards in the final quarter.

Europe

The iron price trends fluctuated within a limited range throughout the said period of H2’23; though the overall performance was better than the first half of the year. Little economic reparations took place in the region after a long time since the Russian war began; this gave the end consumers little room to make investments in the construction and other iron-using sectors as well. Thus, the overall market sentiments were largely positive for iron in the European markets during the said period.

North America

The North American iron market replicated the growth in the European markets during the span of the last two quarters of 2023. The supply constraints promoted a positive movement of iron prices in the American markets. The downstream consumption was also supportive of this price performance. Overall, a steadily inclining price graph was observed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the iron prices are likely to fluctuate in the coming months. Given the current consumption patterns, more regional variations are anticipated going forward.
 

Iron Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

During the said period iron prices depended greatly on the feedstock iron ore prices and the demands from consumer industries like steel, alloys, metals, automobiles, etc. Iron prices observed mixed trends as the prices rose in the first quarter and subsided in the second. However, the fluctuations were within a limited range, indicating the stability of the market and a healthy supply and demand dynamic.

The first quarter witnessed revival efforts, especially in the Chinese market, so with increased industrial activity, demands for iron also increased, raising the prices. However, a swift pushback was observed as the Lunar New Year holidays ended. The second quarter was more plateaued comparatively. Overall, mixed market sentiments were observed.

Europe

The European iron market almost replicated the Asian market trends. As the region grew ways to work around the overstretching Russia-Ukraine war, industries finally started picking up after long inflation. The first quarter witnessed fresh demands for iron, and prices moved, giving a much-needed breather to the struggling automobile and manufacturing industries. However, the price trends stabilized in the following quarter with a better equilibrium in supply and demand. Overall, positive market sentiments were observed.

North America

The North American iron industry was more consistent throughout. Even with the economic struggle due to heightened interest rates, the iron prices were mostly stable. However, some temporary short-limited oscillations were observed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the current Iron supplies exceed the estimated global requirements, so the prices will likely fluctuate further in the coming months.
 

Iron Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend for iron registered a mixed pattern in the said period. In Q3, the prices increased due to the stable prices of iron ore and ample demand in the region. The prices declined in the fourth quarter owing to the restrictions imposed due to covid. Some of the steel mills were forced to shut down to curb the rising cases of covid. The region saw a slight incline in domestic demand as it remained strong even in off-season periods. The fluctuating demand, restrictions on trade activities, and fluctuations in the steel market directed the price trend for iron.

Europe

The declining price trend of iron was seen throughout the last two quarters of 2022. The prices in the third quarter declined due to the low demand, the downfall of the pig iron market, and a significant drop in the prices of pig iron. The demand somehow increased in the fourth quarter, but market sentiment remained weak. Additionally, the demand for raw materials declined and manufacturers struggled with the rising level of inventories. This all contributed to the downward trajectory of iron prices in the European region.

North America

The fear of domestic recession and stagnant pig iron trade contributed to the falling trend in iron prices in the North American region. The prices suffered from the sanctions imposed by the West on Russian materials and significantly lower demand for the product in the regional market. The disruptions in trade, poor cost of input materials, and wait-and-see approach adopted by the buyers after witnessing the uncertain market conditions led to a significant decline in the prices of iron in the said period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of iron are expected to decline in the upcoming quarter. The price trend for iron will be an adduct of the uncertain demand from the end-user industries, and global supply chain dynamics amid fears of a looming recession.
 

Iron Price Trend For the First Half of 2022

Asia

NMDC, India's largest producer of iron ore, reduced the base prices for iron ores by 580-730 INR/MT, causing the floor price of Fe 62% to average 3507 INR/MT for fines while 3900 INR/MT for lump. The iron ore prices will be reeling under pressure in the Indian domestic market owing to the imposition of export duty and the demand destruction. In China, the iron ore prices averaged 136.50 USD/MT.

These dipping prices are a cause of concern amongst steel manufacturers. Global metal prices have fallen around 20% owing to the looming speculations about a worldwide recession. Hence, the price trend for Iron registered a fluctuating pattern due to the current complex economic and political realities.

Europe

Ukraine accounts for 30% of Europe's iron ore needs. With the continuing geopolitical confrontation in Europe, the precious shipment from Ukraine fell short owing to trade bottlenecks and border congestion. The Ukrainian iron ore exports fell by 23% in June 2022 as several iron ore facilities suspended operations in Ukraine. Europe thought of substituting Ukrainian exports with Brazilian exports.

The price of Brazilian 65% Fe averaged 127.30 USD/MT. However, the two months voyage period amid the trade bottlenecks and raised freight charges hindered the European manufacturers. Hence the margins of Iron manufacturers suffered owing to expensive logistics and muted demands.

North America

In the US domestic market, the iron ores prices averaged 133.04 USD/MT in January and peaked in March, averaging 147.34 USD/MT owing to the various trade restrictions, inflated freight costs and labour shortages. However, the price trend for Iron stabilized towards the second quarter, with iron ore prices averaging 131.04 USD/MT due to the muted market sentiment and baulking of buyers as the central bank tightened the monetary prices to fight inflation.

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