Asia
The Asian kerosene market experienced significant volatility throughout the fourth quarter of 2025, with prices moving in different directions across the period. The Philippines saw repeated upward adjustments during October and early November, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions affecting global oil supplies. Supply constraints from major exporting nations created pressure on regional markets. These disruptions rippled through Asian supply chains, forcing local retailers to implement multiple price increases. However, the trajectory showed some inconsistency, with short periods of stability or minor reductions distributed between the larger changes. Domestic demand from major Asian economies remained relatively steady, providing some support for prices even during periods when global crude oil trends suggested potential downward movement.
Europe
European kerosene markets faced a unique set of challenges during Q4’25, heavily influenced by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The aviation fuel sector encountered particular strain as Russian refineries adapted their production processes to address domestic fuel shortages. Industry concerns emerged about potential supply disruptions for aviation kerosene, as refineries began blending winter diesel with kerosene to meet regulatory requirements. The situation prompted discussions about implementing price controls to prevent excessive speculation and maintain stability for the aviation industry during the critical winter travel season.
North America
North American kerosene markets remained relatively more stable compared to other global regions during the fourth quarter. The market benefited from less direct exposure to the geopolitical disruptions affecting European and Asian supplies. However, North American prices still reflected broader global energy market dynamics, including sanctions imposed on Russian energy companies and production adjustments by major oil producing nations.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, Kerosene prices will likely remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and refinery production decisions. Supply stability depends on conflict resolution and normalized production patterns resuming across major exporting regions.