Kerosene Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Supply Demand Analysis, Price Drivers, Market Insights & Latest News

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Written ByPragati Agarwal

Procurement Resource Database

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  • Kerosene prices moved upward globally in Q1 2026, driven by supply disruptions linked to the Iran war and restricted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, tightening product availability.
  • Feedstock constraints intensified as nearly 20% of global oil and LNG flows were disrupted, increasing refining and transportation costs and pushing kerosene prices higher.
  • Downstream demand remained moderate, with aviation, household, and industrial usage facing pressure from higher prices, limiting the pace of consumption growth.

Asia

In Asia, kerosene prices increased due to strong supply-side pressure and import dependence. The Iran war disrupted tanker routes through the Strait of Hormuz, raising freight and insurance costs and tightening supply availability. India imports a large share of its crude from the Middle East, and disruptions to these flows forced refiners to seek alternative sources and adjust logistics, increasing production costs and supporting kerosene price increases. Feedstock shortages and delayed cargo arrivals reduced refinery output flexibility, while demand from aviation and household fuel segments remained stable but price-sensitive, limiting stronger consumption growth.

Europe

In Europe, kerosene prices increased due to constrained imports and higher procurement costs. Disruptions in Gulf exports forced buyers to compete for limited cargoes, raising freight rates and insurance premiums. Partial rerouting of LNG and energy cargoes affected supply chains, while a stronger dollar increased import costs. Supply tightness combined with cautious downstream demand from aviation and industrial sectors kept prices elevated, though inflation and economic uncertainty restricted demand expansion.

North America

In the North American markets, kerosene prices increased due to global supply tightening and elevated transportation costs. Reduced availability of imported feedstock and higher risk premiums on shipments supported price increases. Strategic stockpiles and domestic production adjustments helped maintain supply stability, but elevated geopolitical risks and higher refining costs sustained upward pressure on kerosene prices. Demand from the aviation and heating sectors remained steady but sensitive to price increases, limiting sharper consumption growth.

About Kerosene

Kerosene is one of the most common combustible hydrocarbon liquid. It is derived from petroleum. It is extensively utilised as a fuel in aviation and households. Kerosene is also known for its low viscosity. It is a clear liquid that is formed from hydrocarbons obtained from the fractional distillation of petroleum.

Kerosene Product Detail

Hs Code
271019
Chemical Formula

CxHy (mixture of hydrocarbons)

Cas Number
64742-48-9
Industrial Uses

Jet engines, Rocket engines, Cooking fuel, Lighting and heating fuel, Extraction process, Solvent, Lubricant

Synonyms

Paraffin, Lamp Oil, Coal Oil, Heating oil

Supplier Database

Royal Dutch Shell (Shell), Chevron Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corporation , BP p.l.c., LUKOIL

Regional Coverage

Asia Pacific

China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand

Europe

Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece

North America

United States and Canada

Latin America

Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru

Africa

South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco

CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)

Supplier Database AvailabilityYes

Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer

Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery


Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.

Kerosene Production Processes

  • Production of Kerosene via Fractional Distillation

In this process, after the extraction of crude oil from the earth’s surface, it is heated to separate the components and obtain Kerosene via evaporation. This is followed by condensation and purification of Kerosene.

Frequently Asked Questions

During Q1 2026, kerosene prices generally moved upward across major tracked markets, supported by stronger crude oil costs, tighter middle-distillate availability, and supply concerns linked to global energy disruptions. The USA, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Singapore, and Canada saw firmer market sentiment during the quarter. Demand from heating, lighting, aviation-linked kerosene streams, and industrial fuel use also supported procurement activity.
The kerosene outlook for 2026 remains firm but volatile. Prices are expected to stay closely linked to crude oil, refinery runs, middle-distillate supply, and demand from aviation, heating, lighting, and industrial users. Regional shortages may appear where LPG availability is limited or where kerosene remains important for household energy access, while cleaner fuel policies may limit long-term demand growth.
The main factors affecting kerosene prices in Q1 2026 were crude oil cost pressure and supply uncertainty. Since kerosene is refined from crude oil, higher crude costs raised production economics. At the same time, geopolitical disruptions and concerns over energy flows tightened market sentiment, supporting stronger kerosene prices across several regions.
Major kerosene markets include the United States, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Large aviation hubs, refinery centers, and household fuel markets shape regional demand. Key companies include ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Sinopec, PetroChina, Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum, Rosneft, Gazprom, and Allied Aviation Services.
A significant development in 2026 was the continued progress of Numaligarh Refinery’s expansion project in India. In February 2026, the refinery reported that its capacity expansion from 3.0 MMTPA to 9.0 MMTPA was approximately 85% complete, with commissioning targeted for December 2026. The project is expected to increase production of multiple petroleum products, including middle-distillate streams such as kerosene and aviation fuels. As refining capacity expands, the project could improve regional fuel availability, strengthen Northeast India’s energy infrastructure, and support future supply of kerosene and other refined petroleum products.
Kerosene is mainly produced from crude oil through atmospheric distillation, hydrotreating, sweetening, blending, storage, and distribution. It belongs to the middle-distillate range between lighter products such as naphtha and heavier products such as diesel and fuel oil. The value chain includes crude sourcing, refinery processing, product testing, terminal storage, bulk transport, retail or ration distribution, and final use in heating, lighting, cooking, aviation, and industry.
Major kerosene grades include 1-K kerosene, 2-K kerosene, aviation turbine fuel, Jet A, Jet A-1, JP-5, and JP-8. Household-grade kerosene is used for lamps, heaters, and cook stoves, while aviation kerosene must meet stricter requirements for freezing point, flash point, thermal stability, sulfur content, and contamination control. Grade selection depends on safety, combustion quality, sulfur level, and end-use performance.
Kerosene demand is mainly driven by aviation, household cooking, lighting, space heating, agriculture, small commercial users, industrial heating, military aviation, and emergency fuel use. Aviation-linked kerosene remains a major demand center through Jet A and Jet A-1 consumption. In developing and rural markets, kerosene continues to serve households without reliable LPG, electricity, or natural gas access.
A key 2026 policy development was India’s temporary reintroduction and expanded distribution of Public Distribution System kerosene, also known as superior kerosene oil, during energy supply stress. The government allowed ad hoc allocation to states and union territories, including SKO-free regions, for household cooking and lighting. This affected demand planning, ration-shop supply, dealer logistics, and regional availability.
Procurement Resource employs a structured methodology combining primary research, secondary market data, analytical models, and validation processes to assess kerosene prices and trends. Price evaluations incorporate supply-demand dynamics, feedstock movements, trade flows, and value chain analysis, supported by continuous market monitoring to ensure accurate and reliable insights.

About the Author

Pragati Agarwal profile photo

Pragati Agarwal

Senior Business Insights Analyst

Delivering price trend analysis and procurement market insights at Procurement Resource, with expertise in identifying commodity patterns, supporting purchasing strategies, and improving cost efficiency through actionable market intelligence.

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