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Kerosene Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Supply Demand Analysis, Price Drivers, Market Insights & Latest News
Written ByPragati Agarwal
Kerosene Latest Development
Iran war drives crude oil prices higher
The conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing up crude oil prices. Higher crude costs have lifted gasoline and diesel prices, contributing to broader inflation. Supply constraints are expected to keep prices elevated until mid‑2027.
Kerosene Price Trend Q3 2026
| Product | Region | Incoterm Basis | Price | Last Updated Month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerosene | USA | FOB | USD 1,494.56/MT | August 2026 |
| Kerosene | Saudi Arabia | FOB | USD 1,206.66/MT | August 2026 |
| Kerosene | Japan | FOB | USD 1,202.69/MT | August 2026 |
| Kerosene | Singapore | FOB | USD 1,169.77/MT | August 2026 |
| Kerosene | Canada | FOB | USD 1,138.79/MT | August 2026 |
| Kerosene | USA | FOB | USD 1,165.56/MT | July 2026 |
| Kerosene | Saudi Arabia | FOB | USD 1,024.46/MT | July 2026 |
| Kerosene | Japan | FOB | USD 1,013.57/MT | July 2026 |
| Kerosene | Singapore | FOB | USD 1,209.46/MT | July 2026 |
| Kerosene | Canada | FOB | USD 1,180.09/MT | July 2026 |
Stay updated with the latest Kerosene prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
Kerosene Price Trend Q3 2026
- Kerosene prices climbed sharply in Q3 2026, as renewed conflict and shipping disruptions tightened global supply after a short-lived easing early in the quarter.
- Higher crude oil costs lifted refinery feedstock expenses, while refinery outages in several regions and shut-in Gulf production reduced the availability of middle distillates.
- Aviation and heating fuel buyers faced limited supply, and low distillate inventories kept demand for prompt cargoes strong despite a brief lull after the summer travel peak.
Asia
In Saudi Arabia, the average price of Kerosene rose from ~USD 1,024.46/MT (FOB) in July to ~USD 1,206.66/MT in August, an increase of ~17.8%. Japan saw a similar gain of about 18.7%, from ~USD 1,013.57/MT (FOB) to ~USD 1,202.69/MT. Prices had eased in early July after an interim US–Iran peace deal, but the agreement collapsed and the Strait of Hormuz blockade continued. Gulf oil production shut in by the disruption rose to 6.7 million b/d in August, while attacks in the Red Sea cut Saudi exports from Yanbu, tightening regional supply. Indian state oil companies raised jet fuel prices in both August and September, following international benchmarks.
Europe
European kerosene markets dipped briefly in mid-August, as demand weakened after the summer travel peak and jet fuel imports climbed to about 750,000 b/d in June and July. Prices then rebounded strongly in September, making Europe the highest-priced region. The region relies heavily on Middle East jet fuel imports, which left it exposed to continued Hormuz disruption.
North America
In the USA, average kerosene prices jumped from nearly USD 1,165.56/MT (FOB) in July to roughly USD 1,494.56/MT in August, up ~28.2%. Canada moved the other way, easing about 3.5% from ~USD 1,180.09/MT (FOB) to ~USD 1,138.79/MT, as regional refiners increased distillate output and summer demand peaked. US prices rose as crude costs climbed, and EIA data showed distillate inventories 14% below the five-year average in late August. Refinery outages in Russia, China and the Middle East also kept export demand for US product strong.
Analyst Insight
According to Procurement Resource, kerosene prices are likely to stay high as shipping disruptions and low inventories continue into the heating season, though improved refinery output may ease some pressure.
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- Kerosene prices corrected in May after supply shock eased, but markets stayed above normal as trade routes and refinery output remained strained.
- Feedstock pressure came from lower crude deliveries, weaker refinery runs, and tighter middle distillate inventories after the Strait of Hormuz disruption hit flows.
- Aviation and heating-linked demand softened as high fuel costs pushed airlines to cut capacity, raise fares, and reduce weaker route exposure.
Asia
In Saudi Arabia, the prices of Kerosene were ~SAR 4.90/kg in April and ~SAR 3.93/kg in May, showing a ~19.8% decrease. In Japan, the prices of Kerosene were ~JPY 214.95/kg in April and ~JPY 179.02/kg in the following month, showing a ~16.7% decrease. Asian kerosene prices corrected after the April spike as buyers resisted high levels and aviation demand softened. The market had risen sharply earlier because Asian crude imports were expected to fall 22% year-on-year in April, reducing refinery feedstock availability. Refinery runs were also lower, cutting jet fuel and kerosene output. However, weaker airline schedules, reduced seat-capacity growth, and lower fuel demand allowed May prices to fall.
Europe
Europe’s kerosene market stayed tight in Q2’26 because the region depends heavily on imported aviation kerosene. Regional refineries produced around 1.1 million b/d against consumption of about 1.6 million b/d, leaving a structural import gap. The loss of Middle East cargoes in April lifted risk premiums sharply. Prices later eased as alternative supply flows improved, but the market did not fully normalize because summer travel demand was approaching and import dependence remained high. Strategic reserves reduced immediate panic, but spot buyers stayed cautious due to route disruption and high replacement costs.
North America
North America was comparatively better supplied because domestic refinery runs stayed strong. U.S. refineries processed 17.1 million b/d of crude in the week ending June 19, with utilization at 96.1%, helping protect kerosene-type jet fuel availability. Demand was also more balanced, with jet fuel implied demand rising slightly year-on-year over the prior four weeks. However, the market still corrected in June as the global supply panic eased. The West Coast remained the most exposed area because it competes with Asia for imported barrels.
About Kerosene
Kerosene is one of the most common combustible hydrocarbon liquid. It is derived from petroleum. It is extensively utilised as a fuel in aviation and households. Kerosene is also known for its low viscosity. It is a clear liquid that is formed from hydrocarbons obtained from the fractional distillation of petroleum.
Kerosene Product Detail
HS Code
271019
Chemical Formula
CxHy (mixture of hydrocarbons)
CAS Number
64742-48-9
Industrial Uses
Jet engines, Rocket engines, Cooking fuel, Lighting and heating fuel, Extraction process, Solvent, Lubricant
Synonyms
Paraffin, Lamp Oil, Coal Oil, Heating oil
Supplier Database
Royal Dutch Shell (Shell), Chevron Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corporation , BP p.l.c., LUKOIL
Regional Coverage
Asia Pacific
China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand
Europe
Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece
North America
United States and Canada
Latin America
Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru
Africa
South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco
CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)
Supplier Database AvailabilityYes
Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer
Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery
Note: Our supplier search experts can assist your procurement teams in compiling and validating a list of suppliers indicating they have products, services, and capabilities that meet your company's needs.
Kerosene Production Processes
- Production of Kerosene via Fractional Distillation
In this process, after the extraction of crude oil from the earth’s surface, it is heated to separate the components and obtain Kerosene via evaporation. This is followed by condensation and purification of Kerosene.
Frequently Asked Questions
During Q1 2026, kerosene prices generally moved upward across major tracked markets, supported by stronger crude oil costs, tighter middle-distillate availability, and supply concerns linked to global energy disruptions. The USA, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Singapore, and Canada saw firmer market sentiment during the quarter. Demand from heating, lighting, aviation-linked kerosene streams, and industrial fuel use also supported procurement activity.
The kerosene outlook for 2026 remains firm but volatile. Prices are expected to stay closely linked to crude oil, refinery runs, middle-distillate supply, and demand from aviation, heating, lighting, and industrial users. Regional shortages may appear where LPG availability is limited or where kerosene remains important for household energy access, while cleaner fuel policies may limit long-term demand growth.
The main factors affecting kerosene prices in Q1 2026 were crude oil cost pressure and supply uncertainty. Since kerosene is refined from crude oil, higher crude costs raised production economics. At the same time, geopolitical disruptions and concerns over energy flows tightened market sentiment, supporting stronger kerosene prices across several regions.
Major kerosene markets include the United States, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Large aviation hubs, refinery centers, and household fuel markets shape regional demand. Key companies include ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Sinopec, PetroChina, Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum, Rosneft, Gazprom, and Allied Aviation Services.
A significant development in 2026 was the continued progress of Numaligarh Refinery’s expansion project in India. In February 2026, the refinery reported that its capacity expansion from 3.0 MMTPA to 9.0 MMTPA was approximately 85% complete, with commissioning targeted for December 2026. The project is expected to increase production of multiple petroleum products, including middle-distillate streams such as kerosene and aviation fuels. As refining capacity expands, the project could improve regional fuel availability, strengthen Northeast India’s energy infrastructure, and support future supply of kerosene and other refined petroleum products.
Kerosene is mainly produced from crude oil through atmospheric distillation, hydrotreating, sweetening, blending, storage, and distribution. It belongs to the middle-distillate range between lighter products such as naphtha and heavier products such as diesel and fuel oil. The value chain includes crude sourcing, refinery processing, product testing, terminal storage, bulk transport, retail or ration distribution, and final use in heating, lighting, cooking, aviation, and industry.
Major kerosene grades include 1-K kerosene, 2-K kerosene, aviation turbine fuel, Jet A, Jet A-1, JP-5, and JP-8. Household-grade kerosene is used for lamps, heaters, and cook stoves, while aviation kerosene must meet stricter requirements for freezing point, flash point, thermal stability, sulfur content, and contamination control. Grade selection depends on safety, combustion quality, sulfur level, and end-use performance.
Kerosene demand is mainly driven by aviation, household cooking, lighting, space heating, agriculture, small commercial users, industrial heating, military aviation, and emergency fuel use. Aviation-linked kerosene remains a major demand center through Jet A and Jet A-1 consumption. In developing and rural markets, kerosene continues to serve households without reliable LPG, electricity, or natural gas access.
A key 2026 policy development was India’s temporary reintroduction and expanded distribution of Public Distribution System kerosene, also known as superior kerosene oil, during energy supply stress. The government allowed ad hoc allocation to states and union territories, including SKO-free regions, for household cooking and lighting. This affected demand planning, ration-shop supply, dealer logistics, and regional availability.
Procurement Resource employs a structured methodology combining primary research, secondary market data, analytical models, and validation processes to assess kerosene prices and trends. Price evaluations incorporate supply-demand dynamics, feedstock movements, trade flows, and value chain analysis, supported by continuous market monitoring to ensure accurate and reliable insights.
Our Price Analysis Methodology
About the Author
Pragati Agarwal
Senior Business Insights Analyst
Delivering price trend analysis and procurement market insights at Procurement Resource, with expertise in identifying commodity patterns, supporting purchasing strategies, and improving cost efficiency through actionable market intelligence.
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