Kerosene Price Trend Analysis 2026: Historical Prices, Supply Demand Analysis, Price Drivers, Market Insights & Latest News

Written ByVikas Jha

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Kerosene Price Dasboard

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Asia

The Asian kerosene market experienced significant volatility throughout the fourth quarter of 2025, with prices moving in different directions across the period. The Philippines saw repeated upward adjustments during October and early November, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions affecting global oil supplies. Supply constraints from major exporting nations created pressure on regional markets. These disruptions rippled through Asian supply chains, forcing local retailers to implement multiple price increases. However, the trajectory showed some inconsistency, with short periods of stability or minor reductions distributed between the larger changes. Domestic demand from major Asian economies remained relatively steady, providing some support for prices even during periods when global crude oil trends suggested potential downward movement.

Europe

European kerosene markets faced a unique set of challenges during Q4’25, heavily influenced by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The aviation fuel sector encountered particular strain as Russian refineries adapted their production processes to address domestic fuel shortages. Industry concerns emerged about potential supply disruptions for aviation kerosene, as refineries began blending winter diesel with kerosene to meet regulatory requirements. The situation prompted discussions about implementing price controls to prevent excessive speculation and maintain stability for the aviation industry during the critical winter travel season.

North America

North American kerosene markets remained relatively more stable compared to other global regions during the fourth quarter. The market benefited from less direct exposure to the geopolitical disruptions affecting European and Asian supplies. However, North American prices still reflected broader global energy market dynamics, including sanctions imposed on Russian energy companies and production adjustments by major oil producing nations.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Kerosene prices will likely remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and refinery production decisions. Supply stability depends on conflict resolution and normalized production patterns resuming across major exporting regions.

About Kerosene

Kerosene is one of the most common combustible hydrocarbon liquid. It is derived from petroleum. It is extensively utilised as a fuel in aviation and households. Kerosene is also known for its low viscosity. It is a clear liquid that is formed from hydrocarbons obtained from the fractional distillation of petroleum.

Kerosene Product Detail

Hs Code
271019
Chemical Formula

CxHy (mixture of hydrocarbons)

Cas Number
64742-48-9
Industrial Uses

Jet engines, Rocket engines, Cooking fuel, Lighting and heating fuel, Extraction process, Solvent, Lubricant

Synonyms

Paraffin, Lamp Oil, Coal Oil, Heating oil

Supplier Database

Royal Dutch Shell (Shell), Chevron Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corporation , BP p.l.c., LUKOIL

Regional Coverage

Asia Pacific

China, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Iran, Thailand, South Korea, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Nepal, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, UAE, Israel, Hongkong, Singapore, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, Australia, and New Zealand

Europe

Germany, France, United Kingdom, Italy,Spain, Russia, Turkey, Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Ireland Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Romania, Finland, Czech Republic, Portugal and Greece

North America

United States and Canada

Latin America

Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Columbia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru

Africa

South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco

CurrencyUS$ (Data can also be provided in local currency)

Supplier Database AvailabilityYes

Customization ScopeThe report can be customized as per the requirements of the customer

Post-Sale Analyst Support360-degree analyst support after report delivery


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Kerosene Production Processes

  • Production of Kerosene via Fractional Distillation

In this process, after the extraction of crude oil from the earth’s surface, it is heated to separate the components and obtain Kerosene via evaporation. This is followed by condensation and purification of Kerosene.

Frequently Asked Questions

During Q1 2026, kerosene prices generally moved upward across major tracked markets, supported by stronger crude oil costs, tighter middle-distillate availability, and supply concerns linked to global energy disruptions. The USA, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Singapore, and Canada saw firmer market sentiment during the quarter. Demand from heating, lighting, aviation-linked kerosene streams, and industrial fuel use also supported procurement activity.
The kerosene outlook for 2026 remains firm but volatile. Prices are expected to stay closely linked to crude oil, refinery runs, middle-distillate supply, and demand from aviation, heating, lighting, and industrial users. Regional shortages may appear where LPG availability is limited or where kerosene remains important for household energy access, while cleaner fuel policies may limit long-term demand growth.
The main factors affecting kerosene prices in Q1 2026 were crude oil cost pressure and supply uncertainty. Since kerosene is refined from crude oil, higher crude costs raised production economics. At the same time, geopolitical disruptions and concerns over energy flows tightened market sentiment, supporting stronger kerosene prices across several regions.
Major kerosene markets include the United States, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Large aviation hubs, refinery centers, and household fuel markets shape regional demand. Key companies include ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Sinopec, PetroChina, Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum, Rosneft, Gazprom, and Allied Aviation Services.
A significant development in 2026 was the continued progress of Numaligarh Refinery’s expansion project in India. In February 2026, the refinery reported that its capacity expansion from 3.0 MMTPA to 9.0 MMTPA was approximately 85% complete, with commissioning targeted for December 2026. The project is expected to increase production of multiple petroleum products, including middle-distillate streams such as kerosene and aviation fuels. As refining capacity expands, the project could improve regional fuel availability, strengthen Northeast India’s energy infrastructure, and support future supply of kerosene and other refined petroleum products.
Kerosene is mainly produced from crude oil through atmospheric distillation, hydrotreating, sweetening, blending, storage, and distribution. It belongs to the middle-distillate range between lighter products such as naphtha and heavier products such as diesel and fuel oil. The value chain includes crude sourcing, refinery processing, product testing, terminal storage, bulk transport, retail or ration distribution, and final use in heating, lighting, cooking, aviation, and industry.
Major kerosene grades include 1-K kerosene, 2-K kerosene, aviation turbine fuel, Jet A, Jet A-1, JP-5, and JP-8. Household-grade kerosene is used for lamps, heaters, and cook stoves, while aviation kerosene must meet stricter requirements for freezing point, flash point, thermal stability, sulfur content, and contamination control. Grade selection depends on safety, combustion quality, sulfur level, and end-use performance.
Kerosene demand is mainly driven by aviation, household cooking, lighting, space heating, agriculture, small commercial users, industrial heating, military aviation, and emergency fuel use. Aviation-linked kerosene remains a major demand center through Jet A and Jet A-1 consumption. In developing and rural markets, kerosene continues to serve households without reliable LPG, electricity, or natural gas access.
A key 2026 policy development was India’s temporary reintroduction and expanded distribution of Public Distribution System kerosene, also known as superior kerosene oil, during energy supply stress. The government allowed ad hoc allocation to states and union territories, including SKO-free regions, for household cooking and lighting. This affected demand planning, ration-shop supply, dealer logistics, and regional availability.
Procurement Resource employs a structured methodology combining primary research, secondary market data, analytical models, and validation processes to assess kerosene prices and trends. Price evaluations incorporate supply-demand dynamics, feedstock movements, trade flows, and value chain analysis, supported by continuous market monitoring to ensure accurate and reliable insights.

About the Author

Vikas Jha profile photo

Vikas Jha

Vice President - Sales and Operations

Driving growth and operational excellence at Procurement Resource by partnering with global enterprises on procurement consulting and client solutions, with expertise in scaling research operations and delivering actionable commodity intelligence.

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