LPG Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Market Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of LPG in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

Due to the low demand and excessive supply of Liquefied Petroleum Gas, especially from the US, Asian Liquefied Petroleum Gas prices did not follow the usual seasonal trend and declined as the winter months approached. In November, Liquefied Petroleum Gas imports into Asia were reported to be 22.67 million metric tons, primarily due to increased arrivals in China.

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The biggest LNG importer, Japan, was able to maintain its import-to-demand ratio, which helped the country to achieve its stagnant Liquefied Petroleum Gas prices. In India, the shipments of Liquefied Petroleum Gas reaching its ports declined as the domestic production was sufficient in catering to the demand, which in turn hinted towards the slowdown of the Indian industrial sector.

Europe

Europe imported approximately 10.12 million metric tons of Liquefied Petroleum Gas in the middle of the fourth quarter. The need for these imports rose due to disruptions of Russian pipelines as the Russian-Ukraine crisis was still persistent in the last quarter of the year. However, the demand for LNG was limited because Europe's gas stocks piled up. Due to its domestic gas excess, traders were forced to offer a significant number of discounts to the domestic as well as overseas players. This affected Liquefied Petroleum Gas prices negatively and eventually resulted in their decline.

North America

The US market enjoyed a rise in exports of Liquefied Petroleum Gas to the European countries in the end quarter of 2023 which in turn raised the domestic prices of Liquefied Petroleum Gas. In addition to this, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas prices are also dependent on seasonal fluctuations, and as the winter months approached, the in-house consumption of energy and requirement of fuel for heating inclined linearly, boosting the momentum of the Liquefied Petroleum Gas market and, in turn, resulted in the surge in Liquefied Petroleum Gas Price Trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Liquefied Petroleum Gas are expected to incline. A number of factors are evident that might work in favor of Liquefied Petroleum Gas prices, such as a rise in consumer consumption and smooth trade of this commodity.

Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) Price Trend for the July-September of 2023

Asia

The Asian liquified petroleum gas (LPG) market was observed to be fluctuating within a narrow range during the third quarter of the year 2023. In the Chinese liquified petroleum gas market the prices rose by around 20% within the discussed quarter as the average monthly spot prices inclined from about 543 USD/MT in July to around 655 USD/MT in September of 2023.

The Indian LPG market’s outlook was more mixed as the prices first inclined by around 14% from July to August and then declined marginally by around 2% in the next set of months, i.e., from August to September. The monthly average spot prices shifted from around 436 USD/MT in July to around 488 USD/MT in September. The general market sentiments remained positive throughout the given period.

Europe

The European liquified petroleum gas market trend were also observed to be mixed throughout the given span. The first half of the quarter was relatively slower on the LPG price index compared to the following half. The initial decline in liquified petroleum gas prices was part of the normalization of energy prices. However, the hike in crude oil prices positively impacted the liquified petroleum gas prices, causing them to rise during the second half of Q3’23.

North America

The American liquified petroleum gas price trend almost mimicked the European market trend for the given period of Q3’23. The prices were on a downward trajectory initially and then moved up slightly in the latter half of the quarter. These trend were primarily driven by the crude oil market performance at the given time.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are anticipated to rise further in the coming months since the feedstock crude oil prices are inclining.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The price trends for LPG in the Asia-Pacific region fluctuated heavily in the first two quarters of 2023. A huge dip in the prices was observed in January, but the prices recovered a little during March-April only to decline significantly in the later months of the second quarter. In China, the spot prices for LPG went from around 776 USD/MT in January to around 550 USD/MT in June’23, registering a steep decline of about 29%. This declining trend was due to the decrease in global demand and the dampening of economic activities in the region.

Europe

In Europe, the prices of LPG grew initially as the imports from the Middle East countries inclined. But soon, the prices fell owing to the economic slowdown. Various strikes and labor shortages further aided the falling trend. As European demand remained subdued, the falling energy production costs stabilized the supply-demand dynamics.

North America

In North America, LPG prices declined in the first two quarters as the given product supply was sufficient to meet the stagnant demand from regional and international markets. The prices of crude oil also declined negatively impacting LPG prices in the North American region. The dipping demand and rise in supply led to the negative movement of LPG prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are estimated to fall in the upcoming quarter. The uncertain energy production costs, high inflation rates, and declining demand from the end-use industries will negatively impact the global LPG market.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The LPG prices in the Asia-Pacific region declined gradually in the last two quarters of 2022 as a result of the cheap Russian imports in the region. Further, the availability of low-price alternatives and severe weather conditions in the market negatively impacted the price trends for LPG.

Europe

In Europe, the prices of LPG faced a downward trajectory in the third and fourth quarters of 2022. The supply from the Middle East and African countries substituted the Russian exports. Amid the rising imports, the level of inventories rose as the demand declined in the market. Along with this, the rising inflation rates and the delay in cargo shipments negatively impacted the prices of LPG.

North America

In the third and fourth quarters of 2022, LPG prices declined due to reduced import rates and declining demand from the home heating and agriculture sector. However, in Q4, the region became one of the major exporters of LPG as the domestic supply of the product inclined in the region and the demand from the end-user sector improved, supporting a stable trend in the prices of LPG.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are estimated to fall in the upcoming months considering the availability of cheaper alternatives and subdued demand from the market.

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

India relies heavily on imports to meet its domestic oil requirements, making it highly vulnerable to the rising international oil prices. With the continuing supply side, constraints and freight charges, prices of LPG soared globally. In India, the price of a 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder reached a swooping 1003 INR/cylinder. As of April 2022, the prices of domestic LPG cylinders have risen by 193.5 INR/cylinder on a Y-O-Y basis.

The prices of Non-subsidized LPG reached 1002.50 INR/ 14.2kg cylinder in Mumbai and 1018.50 INR a bottle in Chennai. To control the soaring prices domestically, the prices of 19kg commercial LPG cylinders were sashed to 2219 INR/cylinder in Delhi and 2171.50/cylinder in Mumbai and Chennai. In mid-June, the cost of a new LPG connection was hiked. The oil marketing firms raised the security deposits; the new connection cost 2200 INR/ connection. Along with the prices of LPG, gas regulators also increased during the said quarter.

In the Chinese domestic arena, the prices of LPG fluctuated during the said period. Despite the rising oil costs, the off-season demand and low trading activities did not let the prices of LPG rise substantially. The price of LPG averaged between 6237.50 to 6362.50 RMB/MT in the said quarter. However, towards the end of the said period, a slight dip was seen in the price trends of LPG due to a fall in the international oil prices plus the weak market sentiment.

Europe

The ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine has resulted in massive economic backlash across Europe, giving way to runaway inflation. The rising costs of energy, intense weather conditions like heat waves, and strong market sentiment have caused the prices of LPG to inflate in the European domestic market.

North America

In line with the global outlook, the price trends of LPG are soaring in the US domestic arena. The low market inventory, strong demand, and tightened supply amid west retaliatory sanctions against Russia have caused the prices to inflate in the domestic market.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

On March 28, average LPG prices in the Shandong market were 6,230 RMB/MT. Compared to March 1, LPG prices fell by 2.02%. On the 29th, the domestic LPG market remained weak overall, with different regions declining to varying degrees. Shandong's civil gas market dropped by 50-100 RMB/MT. The price of international crude oil fell sharply  and the market mood was negative. Furthermore, due to the impact of the epidemic, shipments in many regions were disrupted. Manufacturers primarily shipped at a loss.

Europe

Energy prices were high in Europe during the first quarter of 2022 as a result of shortage in the region as conflicts rose between Russia and EU leading to pipeline flows being cut off or reduced drastically due to retaliations and sanctions.

North America

Benchmark propane prices in the US fell to 1.30 USD/gal by the end of January 2022. Energy prices rose in February 2022 and as a consequence propane prices also increased. Average residential propane prices reached close to 3.00 USD/gal in the US in March 2022. Crude oil prices surged during the Ukraine-Russia war which in turn increased the propane prices.

Latin America

In March, Petrobras, Brazil's state-run oil company, announced to increase LPG prices to 4.48 BRL/kg, increasing the prices by almost 16%. The price rise came after a hike in international energy prices as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

After underperforming for practically the entire third quarter of FY21, the LPG demand resurfaced in Q4 of FY21. Because the premium to naphtha had been dropping since October, the arbitrage for US propane imports reopened for a brief period in October before tapering off due to massive demand from Asia as a result of an energy crisis that began towards the end of October. Propane's advantage against butane had faded by the end of December, while demand for Asian butane for the US gasoline blending sector grew during the winter.

By the conclusion of Q4 of FY21, demand in India had reached a halt, as contract LPG prices had fallen by 17% from their October high of 970 USD/MT. Despite the fact that propane dehydrogenation capacity had been rising every year in Asia, naphtha remained the favored feedstock for the quarter ending December, since the LPG premium to naphtha did not change significantly. With provincial elections occurring in Q1 of FY22, the consumption in India is projected to rise, as national governments frequently offer LPG subsidies for household use prior to elections in order to lure voters.

North America

Throughout the second half of FY21, US exports to Asia were more than 100 % higher than exports to Europe. On a FOB Texas basis, propane export prices were around 1.5 USD/gal, which was a seven-year high. Due to sharp increases in natural gas prices, many European industries resorted to buying LPG stock on the open market in December, increasing exports to both Asia and Europe from October levels. By the end of December, the FOB Texas discount to CFR Far East Asia had decreased to around 160 USD/MT.

Because oil and natural gas prices are expected to rise further in January, many refineries in Asia are likely to pick propane over naphtha as their preferred cracker feed. Prices are likely to climb further in Q1 of FY22 as the European market tightens, owing to increased LPG imports into European countries due to winter demand. The US-NWE arbitrage will most likely reopen in the first or second week of January.

Europe

European LPG imports from the United States reached a half-yearly high of 0.42 MMT in November of Q4, and the boom in imports only accelerated in December, when they were nearly 240 % higher than December FY20 levels. At the start of Q4, US export prices were at record highs, making arbitrage margins untenable for European traders. Prices, on the other hand, dropped by December and were likely to drive European LPG demand in the first quarter of FY22. Winter demand is predicted to be lower than in January of FY21. However, LPG prices are predicted to rise as a result of its increased demand as a heating fuel substitute for natural gas as a result of a dramatic spike in natural gas costs.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

LPG supplies in the Asia Pacific region were balanced in the first quarter of 2021, owing to the launch of new olefin facilities in China, where LPG accounts for 77 % of demand, and China's PDH (propane - dehydrogenation) plants running at full capacity. Whereas, temporary operational halts due to the Chinese New Year vacations, as well as output curbs by OPEC members, revealed some supply constraints.

As the northeast Asian region entered the winter season, demand increased in those times. Saudi Aramco, a major supplier to the Middle East, raised its March LPG ratio (50 % Propane – 50 % Butane) to 610 USD/MT and (70 % Propane – 30 % Butane) to 616 USD/MT, respectively, from January settlements, representing increases of 70 USD/MT and 48 USD/MT.

Europe

In the first quarter of 2021, LPG supplies in the region remained tight as imports from the United States fell due to a drop in domestic demand in the Gulf region of the United States. However, during the second and third quarters of 2021, the market in Europe had a consistent upward trend in pricing. The demand was primarily concentrated among domestic consumers, owing to increased demand from industrial and household applications, as well as electricity generation applications.

Following the vaccination roll-out, the market had a significant economic upswing, which boosted overall LPG use. After significant delays in Asian cargoes, supplies were plentiful as the distribution was balanced from the Middle East. In the second quarter of 2021, LPG prices in Germany averaged 210.6 USD/MT, with overall pricing exhibiting a modest fall during the quarter.

North America

The North American market continued to see upward trend in both the second and the third quarters after observing a marginal decline during the first quarter. Brent Crude Oil's steady rise kept the offers much higher. Brent crude oil prices averaged 73 USD/barrel in June, an increase of 5 USD/barrel above May's prices.

The demand for domestic applications remained stable, but recovering industrial infrastructure in the US Gulf region boosted industrial off takes. LPG prices in the US market improved steadily during the period, with the quarterly LPG prices averaging 221 USD/MT in the second quarter of 2021, an increase of 16 USD/MT

For the Year 2020

Asia

In 2020, the oil and gas sector industry was severely hit by Covid pandemic as most of industries were closed, however LPG, due to its more broad demand profile, was not impacted in the same way. With the exception of Japan, increased import requirements from most of Asia-Pacific's major demand centers drove this resilience.

LPG imports to China, India, Indonesia, and South Korea increased by 3% to 60.1 MMT.A main driver of demand increase was the rise of China's domestic petrochemical sector, which saw new propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and ethylene crackers come online. In China, the industrial sector's consumption fell by 6.7% year on year. The first estimates for May showed a modest year-over-year demand rise of around 1%.

Europe

European petrochemicals, on the other hand, saw a significant reduction in LPG demand in 2020, with consumption falling to just under 13 MMT from about 14.5 MMT in 2019. The combined effects of mild temperatures, high wind generation, and Covid19- induced statewide lockdowns lowered natural gas use, which was down 7% yoy in the first five months of the year.

Natural gas consumption in various European countries fell sharply as a result of statewide lockdowns, falling by 11% from the start of the lockdowns and the end of September, corresponding to a 10 bcm decline in absolute terms. Lower demand from the industrial and power generation sectors accounted for the majority of the decrease.

North America

Between January and May 2020, US natural gas consumption fell by 2.8% year on year. Despite moderate temperatures throughout the first quarter and the adoption of lockdown measures in most states, this was a rather minor reduction. Despite the significant impact of lockdowns on economic activity, LPG demand remained reasonably stable, increasing by 0.5% between mid-March and the end of May compared to the same period last year.

Consumption in the industrial sector fell by 3.6% YOY between mid-March and mid-May, compared to the same period last year. The electricity generation sector, which increased by 3.4% year over year over the same period, and some gains in residential and commercial use countered this drop (up 1.5%). The main reason for LPG consumption to remain stable was because of the changeover from coal to gas in power generation in the United States.

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