Nickel Price Trend Analysis 2026: Price Drivers, Market Insights, Historical Prices, Supply Demand Analysis & Latest News

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Asia

In China, the nickel market navigated a broadly volatile quarter marked by three distinct phases. The prices were about 17222 USD/MT (Spot FD) in October and around 17387 USD/MT in December. Prices fluctuated narrowly in the opening weeks as policy-driven supply expectations from Indonesia's quota adjustments competed with persistent inventory pressure and weak stainless-steel demand. A steady decline followed through the middle of the period, as oversupply conditions and the growing dominance of lithium iron phosphate battery technology continued to suppress nickel consumption. Prices reached their quarterly low before staging a sharp recovery toward the close, driven by Indonesia's proposed quota reduction and taxation policy expectations, which shifted market sentiment and triggered a pronounced technical rebound. India's nickel market broadly mirrored the trajectory observed in China throughout the fourth quarter. The prices were about 15241 USD/MT in October and around 15292 USD/MT in December. Prices held relatively steady through the opening phase before declining through the middle portion of the period, reflecting similar global supply and demand dynamics. A pronounced recovery emerged toward quarter-end, aligned with the policy-driven sentiment shift originating from Indonesia, which lifted prices and closed the quarter well above opening levels.

Europe

European nickel prices followed a pattern largely consistent with Asian markets during the fourth quarter. The prices were about 15284 USD/MT in October and around 15067 USD/MT in December. The opening phase saw prices fluctuating in a narrow range before a gradual and sustained decline set in through the middle of the quarter, as high LME inventories and weak downstream industrial demand weighed on sentiment. Prices reached a trough in mid-to-late December before recovering, mirroring the global response to Indonesia's announced quota reduction and associated minerals taxation policy, which shifted market sentiment and pushed prices upwards in the closing weeks.

North America

North American nickel market conditions tracked a trajectory broadly consistent with China during the fourth quarter. An initial range-bound phase gave way to a gradual decline through the middle of the period, as global oversupply concerns and subdued downstream demand weighed on sentiment. A sharp recovery followed toward quarter-end, driven by the same Indonesia policy developments that catalysed the global rebound, with prices closing the quarter well above their mid-period lows.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, nickel prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with upward momentum contingent on the actual implementation of Indonesia's quota reduction and taxation policies, which carry meaningful uncertainty.