Polysilicon Price Trend and Forecast

Polysilicon Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Polysilicon in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Polysilicon Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

In the Asian market, the third quarter of 2024 was marked by significant challenges for the polysilicon industry. China experienced a severe oversupply situation, with prices continuing to decline dramatically. Major manufacturers like Daqo New Energy reported substantial financial losses, with average selling prices falling below production costs.
 

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The market was characterized by massive inventory levels ranging from 200,000 to 300,000 metric tons, creating intense pricing pressure. Polysilicon producers implemented strategic production cuts, with some major manufacturers reducing their monthly production to minimal levels. The ongoing oversupply and weak demand from solar and electronics sectors contributed to a prolonged market downturn.

Europe

European polysilicon markets displayed a complex trading landscape during Q3 2024. Germany emerged as the primary polysilicon exporter to China, accounting for over 84% of imports in August. The market experienced stable pricing, with the Global Polysilicon Marker (GPM) remaining relatively consistent. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade investigations and potential tariffs on imported solar modules created additional market complexity. European manufacturers navigated challenging market conditions, with some finding opportunities in photovoltaic installation subsidies, particularly in countries like the Netherlands. Despite these challenges, the region maintained a cautious but resilient approach to polysilicon trading.

North America

North American polysilicon markets presented a nuanced scenario in the third quarter. The market was heavily influenced by pending U.S. trade investigations into solar imports from Southeast Asian countries. Manufacturers faced significant uncertainty, with investigation deadlines potentially delayed until after the 2024 presidential election. Despite challenges, the region showed potential for growth, driven by continued investments in solar energy and supportive government policies. The Biden administration's commitment to expanding solar energy development provided some optimism for the sector. However, manufacturers remained cautious, with many postponing purchasing decisions and exploring alternative strategies to maintain market positioning.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Polysilicon market remains sensitive to global economic conditions, technological advancements in solar energy, and ongoing shifts in renewable energy investments. The long-term outlook suggests a gradual market correction, with potential for improved pricing and market conditions in the coming months.
 

Polysilicon Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

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Asia

In China, the polysilicon market saw a notable price decline in H1 2024. Despite the steady demand from the downstream glass industry, weak macroeconomic conditions and high price resistance from downstream industries led to inventory accumulation and downward price pressure. Low-priced sources in North China slowed shipments, while Central China saw increased inventories due to poor production and sales.

This trend was exacerbated by a decrease in the procurement pace by wafer companies, leading to substantial polysilicon inventory buildup. Reports indicated significant losses for polysilicon manufacturers, with many companies halting production or undertaking maintenance to mitigate the oversupply situation.

Europe

The European countries witnessed oscillations in the pricing pattern of polysilicon throughout the first and second quarters of 2024. The dips in the pricing trajectory were influenced by a lack of support from major downstream industries such as solar energy sectors and their derivatives. Although the decline in imports from the Asian countries reduced some pressure on the market, it was not sufficient to drive the market momentum upwards. Additionally, the loss of export margins because of persistent trading issues and surge in freight charges further dampened any hopes of traders and manufacturers, prompting them to induce cuts in their pricing quotations.

North America

In the U.S., the polysilicon market faced mixed sentiments during the first half of 2024. Despite an early rise in the pricing patterns of the commodity, the market outlook remained bleak in the later stages of the quarter. The introduction of tariffs and trade investigations by the U.S. government affected the export dynamics from Southeast Asia, impacting overall market sentiment. However, some market participants remain optimistic, citing the low-levelized cost of electricity for photovoltaic power generation, which could support further price increases for modules and sustain polysilicon prices. However, according to the current production rates, the traders anticipate that the supply of polysilicon might overpower its demand in both domestic and overseas markets in the forthcoming months.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Polysilicon is estimated to fall in the forthcoming quarters as the outlook of global solar industries and the overall consumer sector is likely to remain bleak.
 

Polysilicon Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

The polysilicon market attracted little attention from end-user industries, which led to month-to-month price fluctuations in 2023's third and fourth quarters. Particularly severe fluctuations were seen in the third quarter when production output greatly outpaced demand while consumption in the automotive sector remained low. Reduced production costs and polysilicon pricing were also influenced by a drop in raw material prices brought on by restricted procurement.

Throughout the final month of the third quarter and the majority of the subsequent quarter, stability slowly surfaced in the market as the market dynamics started to improve. Due to the relaxation of restrictions on the supply of semiconductors, the automobile industry's demand increased, and production activities decreased, resulting in this stability.

Europe

The final month of the third quarter saw a significant and abrupt drop in polysilicon prices after a period of stagnation in the preceding months. Production costs and the significant decline in demand from downstream sectors were the main causes of this decline.

As a result, the market needed a long time to recover before showing any encouraging signs in the fourth quarter. Though their effects on the market were only felt in the final month of the year, the steady rise in raw material costs and demand from end-user sectors from the start of Q4'23 serve as indicators of this recovery.

North America

The downstream rubber sectors in North America had severe difficulties in the third quarter of 2023, which greatly affected the trend of polysilicon prices. The demand and supply sectors of the market noticeably moved opposite each other during this time, which made trading activities worse. Further, the feedstock industries did not assist the industry at all during this period, which added to the drop in polysilicon pricing. But soon after, the dynamics of the market started to change in favor of an upward momentum. Due to decreased production output in the fourth quarter and rising demand, stocks were reduced, and polysilicon prices rose.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Polysilicon is estimated to continue on its southward journey as the current market trends of the downstream industries are showcasing dim momentum in the near quarters.
 

Polysilicon Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The production activities and market trend of polysilicon are dependent on its feedstock silicon. In the first quarter, the slowdown of downstream sectors caused a significant rise in the stockpile levels. The market was also quiet due to the Lunar New Year holidays in China and the lower appetite of consumers.

In March, the production rates also slumped, resulting in the sluggish nature of the overall polysilicon market. With the commencement of the second quarter, the decline in prices also accelerated. The buyers became more hesitant to place orders in bulk due to the weak condition of the economy.

Europe

In European countries, the prices of polysilicon followed a bearish trend throughout the first and second quarters of 2023 as the interest in the automotive and downstream aluminum alloy industries took a dip. The fall in the cost of energy production helped the market to maintain its momentum, but the negative trading activities hampered the growth of the polysilicon prices. In the second quarter, the financial indicators indicated that the European markets were moving forward to a phase of recession that eventually led to the downfall in the price trend of polysilicon.

North America

The decline in the polysilicon price trend in the first and second quarters of 2023 was caused by the rising cost of production, reduction in earnings, expensive labor, and low interest of buyers in this sector. Further, the failure of two major banks in the region led to a rise in pressure on the market activities of polysilicon and was a significant cause behind the decline in its prices. The supply-demand gap widened in the second quarter as a result of consistently rising inventory levels and the underperformance of the whole US market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Polysilicon is expected to remain on the negative side due to low support from the downstream industries and plunging overall global polysilicon market sentiments.

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