Potash Price Trend and Forecast

Potash Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Potash in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Potash Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Potash prices exhibited a rangebound movement, reflecting a relatively stable but cautious market environment. The year began with prices slightly easing from the levels seen in late 2023, experiencing a mild downward trend in the initial months before stabilizing. As the year progressed, there was a slight rebound in prices driven by ongoing demand from major consumers, particularly Brazil, China, and India, which together constitute the largest global markets for potash. Despite this demand, overall supply remained sufficient to keep prices within a relatively narrow range.
 

Potash Price Chart

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The stability in potash prices was influenced by several key factors. The potential threat of a rail strike in Canada loomed over the market, as negotiations between major rail operators and unions remained unresolved. Canada, being a dominant player in the global potash market, saw its export activities continue without disruption during the first half, maintaining a steady flow of supply. However, concerns remained that any prolonged strike action could create logistical challenges and shift the market into a period of catch-up, potentially impacting global supply.

Additionally, the geopolitical factors continued to cast a shadow over the potash market. While the Russia-Ukraine conflict that previously caused a sharp spike in fertilizer prices remained unresolved, its immediate impact on potash prices diminished as supply chains adapted to the new conditions. However, other geopolitical tensions, such as potential disruptions in the Middle East, added an element of uncertainty to the market.

Overall, potash prices during the first half of 2024 were marked by a balance between robust demand from key markets and sufficient supply levels, with prices fluctuating within a defined range. While potential supply disruptions and new capacity expansions were closely monitored, the market remained relatively steady, with prices neither surging nor dropping drastically.

Analyst Insight

According to procurement resources, the price of Potash is thus expected to oscillate as the market's direction will likely depend on the resolution of labor disputes, the pace of new supply coming online, and the impact of any further geopolitical developments.
 

Potash Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Potash prices were observed to be oscillating during the second half of the year 2023. The potash price trend was majorly found to be following the price trajectory of its feedstock material, potassium carbonate, during the said period. After a stumbling performance of the previous quarter, the potash market started on a little uplifting note at the beginning of the third quarter in July’23.

The rising feedstock cost and the crude oil prices pushed the potash market in a positive direction. The downstream industries were also providing some support in maintaining the price trajectory. The difference in prices, however, was very marginal. As the demands dipped and the global trade faced a little issue in the fourth quarter the prices also started to tumble again. Despite all the fluctuations, the prices were still bound within very limited ranges throughout the said time period. Overall, mixed market sentiments were witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Potash prices are likely to continue behaving in a similar manner in the coming months as well. Current supply and demand dynamics don’t project much change.
 

Potash Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Potash prices have continuously fallen in the first half of the year 2023. Russia used to be the biggest exporter of Potash before it waged a war on Ukraine. But, since the sanctions were imposed on Russian imports, the Potash prices had skyrocketed in 2022. However, in 2023, countries like Canada increased their exports, and Russia’s significance tumbled in the fertilizer market. The demands for Potash have also been low this fiscal year.

Imports have remained slower in 2023 as well, with potash exports from Belarus still affected by the sanctions. It is expected that U.S. potash prices could strengthen later this year owing to less available supply, depending on how Canadian potash export flows shape up over the coming months. Overall, dull market sentiments were observed in the concerned period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the demands set to rise in the coming months, potash price trend are also expected to rise.
 

Potash Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

After reaching unprecedented heights in the first half of 2022 because of the cut down in the black sea supplies from Russia, Ukraine, and their neighboring countries, the potash prices stabilized in the latter half of the year. In the USA, the prices fell by around 8% within the discussed period. Potash prices averaged about 807 USD/MT in December 2022, depreciating from the average of about 885 USD/MT in June’22.

The end consumer demands saw depression because of unsustainably high costs, which led to a reduction in sales; moreover, as the war progressed, markets developed methods to work around it. Other producing nations like Canada ramped up mining and exports to leverage the supply gap.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Potash will depreciate further as the trade normalization proceeds amidst the speculations of the war stretching even longer.
 

Potash Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

In China, Malaysia and Indonesia, price of potash was high in the second quarter of 2022. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Indonesia are major potash-consuming countries where the prices rose sharply. Global sanctions on potash from Belarus and restricted exports from Russia also accelerated the potash prices due to limited supply.

Europe

In Europe, the potash market witnessed an uptrend in prices following the Ukraine-Russia war which resulted in global supply chain disruptions and potash prices were expected to rise even further in future.

North America

The prices for potash mostly remained on the lower side in Q2 of 2022. Potash prices in the US in May were even lower than those in April as a result of import volumes from Canada and Russia.

For instance, the FOB NOLA granular barge prices per ton were down from 800 USD in April to around 770-780 USD in May. Even though the river terminal prices were higher than the barge prices at around 780-815 USD per ton, they had still fallen by 25 dollars month-over-month.

Latin America

In Brazil, the potash demand was low in the second quarter of 2022 which caused a downward price trend, not just locally but all around the world. The spring season had begun late which led to low demand and did not prompt fill buying for potash as prices remained on the downward side.
 

Potash Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

North America

Following Western economic sanctions against a major potash supplier in Belarus, potash prices in the United States and Brazil are at multi-year highs. The strong worldwide demand and limited supply are contributing to the price increase. On March 9, the price of poash in the United States reached an all-time high of 815 USD/MT.

Brazil is also on the lookout for a new fertiliser supply, as the conflict in Ukraine threatens to halt nutrient exports to the country. Brazil imports around 85% of its fertiliser, with Russia accounting for about a fifth of those imports. The Russian commerce ministry has requested that fertiliser exports be halted. There were several challenges with global fertiliser supplies even before the conflict.
 

Potash Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The price in Asia declined in the fourth quarter after reaching a new high the previous quarter. During the festive season, the market in India turned bullish, backing this strong rise in India.

Following a dip in demand during the holiday season, the trend reversed in the final month of the quarter. Price continued to fall in December, with supply outstripping demand. Traders remained anxious about their inventory levels, and vigorous negotiations to encourage the sale of current goods before the end of the year were allowed to continue.

Europe

During the fourth quarter of 2021, the price continued to rise. Although demand from downstream sectors such as fertilisers was low, availability remained low as transportation operations were halted in some regions due to weather conditions, maintaining potash prices modestly. Trading operations in Asia and Europe remained limited due to congestion on key trade routes, high freight costs, and other issues. A lack of containers also influenced the price in the region.

North America

Price in North America was held in a constant to tight range in Q4 due to insufficient demand. As the holiday season approached, buyer interest waned in the last two months of the year. Muriate Of Potash prices were quoted at 800 USD/MT CFR New York. The demand dropped even more at the peak of the winter season, as end-use sectors had already purchased enough cargoes at the start of the quarter. The price remained steady in Q4 due to unbalanced demand and supply dynamics.

Latin America

Price in Brazil in December had increased by 550 USD/MT by the end of December 2021 and CFR potash prices were reported at 800 USD/MT. The price increased in the region as imports dwindled and demand increased as the Brazilian agricultural land was lacking in potash which increased the fertilizer demand, thereby causing the price to soar.
 

Potash Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters 2021

Latin America

Prices in Brazil increased in May-June. In the first quarter, CFR potash prices were around 245 USD/MT which increased in the May-June period and remained high for the rest of the year. The prices increased by 550 USD/MT, to 800 USD/MT following a shortage in supply as Belarus exports faced sanctions even though Brazil had not announced any sanctions on Belarus. Brazil also faced import competition from Canada which was the second largest importer of potash in 2021.
 

Potash Price Trend For the Year 2020

Latin America

In April 2020, the Muriate of Potash (MOP) prices in Brazil were reported at 215 USD/MT following which the prices witnessed an upward trend in the region.

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