Propane Price Trend and Forecast

Propane Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Propane in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Propane Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

Propane price trends were found to be wavering in the Asian markets throughout the second half of 2023. Propane is one of the most popular petrochemicals that can also be used as a fuel and fuel additive, so the downstream demands from the construction, fuel, and other consuming industries primarily drive its price trends. The prices started firm at the beginning of the third quarter in July in the Asian region.
 

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The surge in crude oil prices in the third quarter provided the initial push by increasing the production costs. The market demands were also supportive of this price trajectory. However, as the fourth quarter arrived, the prices started to plummet in the Asian markets. A slump in petroleum prices and a supply overflow in the inventories were responsible for this downfall. Overall, a mixed price trend was witnessed in H2’23.

Europe

Propane’s price performance in the European market was not much different from the Asian markets; the prices were found to be vacillating here as well. Prices had a better outlook in the third quarter as a surge in raw material prices pushed up the upstream costs in the European market. Though the Russia-Ukraine war was still going on, however, the region developed ways and routes to economically work around that. So, the market had this newfound stability, which kept the fluctuations limited. The fourth quarter saw a slight dip in the price graph.

North America

The North American Propane price trend closely followed its Asian and European counterparts as the prices showed fluctuations in the same manner. The third quarter showed borderline stability, with the prices oscillating within confined limits and exuding marginal stagnancy in the third quarter, while the fourth quarter saw a plummeting trend. Fuel and chemical industries drove the demand attributes. Overall, a varied trajectory was witnessed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Propane price trends are expected to remain on the lower side of the graph for the next few months since the inventories are well-supplied and the demands are still uncertain.
 

Propane Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

The price trend of propane is dictated by the market dynamics of LPG and other fuel alternatives, as they are its major market drivers. Propane supply dramatically increased in Asian markets while demand stayed at a low level during the first quarter.

The first quarter of 2023 also saw significant pressure on the dynamics of the propane market due to economic difficulties in Asia and a global decline in fuel consumption as a result of dropping energy costs. In the second quarter, the economic downturn was further fueled by the depreciation in the Asian currency as compared to the dollar, restricting the growth of the propane price trend.

Europe

The economic downturns were the main cause of the propane market's significant uncertainties in European countries. The reduced consumer demand for propane also had a negative impact on US import rates. Additionally, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine situation hampered trade, which further posed a challenge to the propane price trend. Further, the decline in fuel prices was accelerated by the drop in feedstock costs, and inflationary pressures kept the price trend of propane in the negative zone in the first and second quarters of 2023.

North America

The propane prices in North America suffered a bearish trend in the first and second quarters of 2023 as a result of a consistent fall in crude oil prices in domestic and overseas sectors. However, a slight incline in the downstream demand caused the trend to briefly improve in the middle of the second quarter, but this only lasted a short time as the downward pressure from low feedstock costs and an excess supply of propane persisted to held back the rise in the prices of propane.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Propane is expected to struggle with the low demand and weak performance of the global economy.
 

Propane Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend for propane were directly impacted by the availability and prices of crude oil in the international market. Major Asian economies namely India and China both had access to uninterrupted and discounted crude oil supplies from Russia amid West-imposed sanctions against Russian exports. As the supplies remained consistent and cheap, upstream costs for propane too remained low. The demand kept varying but the consistent supplies kept the propane price trend ground-facing for most of the second half of 2022. The propane prices wavered a little with demand, but an overall declining trend was observed.

Europe

Europe witnessed a mixed price pattern for propane in the second half of 2022. The Russia-Ukraine war unleashed an economic backlash in the European domestic market. Since many EU nations are directly dependent on Russian supplies, the retaliatory sanctions raised the energy costs considerably. Hence, the countries explored other options and as supplies from South America and Africa arrived a considerable fall in energy prices was seen. Hence, the price trend for propane stabilized in the third quarter. But as Q4 is a major winter season, demand for propane rose, and so did the prices.

North America

The USA witnessed a rise in natural gas supply during H2 2022 which led to a considerable decline in the upstream production costs. Hence, the prices declined as the cost pressure subsided along with muted demands. Even the increased demands during the winter season in the fourth quarter didn’t impact much. Overall, a declining price trend for propane was observed in the American region.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, propane prices are expected to continue a similar trajectory. As the supplies and trade normalise the overall growing demand will likely impact the price trend for carbon black.
 

Propane Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

As the demand for downstream propylene production increased in China, the demand for propane imports from the US also increased. The demand for propane as a petrochemical feedstock also backed the high volumes of imports from the US to Asia.

Europe

In Europe, propane and naphtha are primary petrochemical feedstock. In May 2022, Europe imported the chemical at significantly high discounts to naphtha due to rising crude oil prices. European propane prices were traded at over 145 USD/MT discount to the price of naphtha.

North America

Propane prices increased by 27% as compared to the previous year in the US by the end of the first quarter of 2022 as a result of the Ukraine-Russia war climbing to more than 3 USD/gallon in April. The price rise of propane was a result of inflation which increased the heating oil and gas prices as well as the price of physical tanks.

Latin America

In Brazil, gasoline prices did not see a lot of fluctuations in the second quarter and remained close to 7.39 BRL/litre. The price had fallen to 5.89 BRL/litre by the end of the quarter.
 

Propane Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The average price in Shandong market was 6,453.25 RMB/MT on February 28 and 7,438.25 RMB/MT on March 7, an increase of 15.26% over the week and an increase of 84.42% over the same period last year. The domestic propane market had climbed dramatically in Q1 2022, with most prices rising to approximately 7,500 RMB/MT.

The present market has a lot of advantages. For starters, the continuing rise in worldwide crude oil has given the market a lot of support. Furthermore, in March, the CP price was established, and both butane and propane prices jumped rapidly, and the cost side was advantageous. The supply side of the market was quite modest at the time, and the upstream inventory was generally regulated, which had some advantages.
 

Propane Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Asian LPG prices fell to their lowest level in over five months, converting the CFR North Asia propane vs January CP swaps difference to a discount, with mounting demand worrieks in the aftermath of the coronavirus omicron strain.

On December 2nd, CFR North Asia propane was evaluated at 649.5 USD/MT, down 49.5 USD/MT and matching the June 30th level. The disparity between CFR North Asia propane and January CP swaps fell to a 50 cents/MT. On December 3rd, the CFR North Asia LPG market was at 639 USD/MT, down from 647USD/MT on December 2nd, suggesting continuously unfavorable market sentiment.

Europe

LPG departures from the United States bound for Europe climbed dramatically in the third week of November, despite the Panama Canal's increasing delays. Exports jumped from an average of 170 kbd to nearly 600 kbd in the third week of November, and subsequently averaged a still strong 230kbd. Arrivals in Europe were expected to increase significantly the week through December 12.

North America

At 1.41 USD/gal at the Texas trading centre of Mont Belvieu, on-the-spot prices were nearly treble those of the previous two Octobers. The average residential price in the United States, as reported by the Energy Information Administration, increased by 50% year over year to $2.69 a gallon.

Prices had not been this high in a decade heading into winter, which was terrible news for rural Americans who relied on the fuel to remain warm. Propane is used to heat around 5% of American residences. Apart from home use, it is used to power forklifts, heat hotel pools, and is used in large amounts to manufacture polypropylene, a type of plastic.

Latin America

Waterborne propane imports to Mexico's east coast increased by 4.5% to 1.09 USD/USG on 10th December, up from 1.07 USD/USG on 3rd December. In recent weeks, the impact of increased worldwide prices was felt in Mexico.
 

Propane Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

The Asia Pacific region's supply was balanced in the first quarter of 2021. The demand increased when the Asia-Pacific area's winter season began, particularly in the northeast Asian region for heating purposes. Saudi Aramco, a key supplier in the Asia Pacific area, increased propane prices in all of its importing markets many times during the first quarter.

Prices settled at 624 USD/MT in March, indicating an increase of 70 USD/MT over January settlements. During the second quarter of 2021, demand for the chemical in the Asia Pacific area remained optimistic, but supplies improved, with US LPG supply to East Asia being less constrained than in the previous quarter. Offtakes from home and industrial applications were constant.

The upward trend in price continued, with Saudi Aramco proposals for the APAC area doubling in size, with negotiations concluding at 530 USD/MT for Propane, up by 35 USD/MT in June. Prices in the area increased significantly in the third quarter of 2021. In terms of demand, this quarter saw robust offtakes from residential and industrial applications. Increased natural gas and crude oil prices, combined with optimistic winter requirements, bolstered the third-quarter demand picture.

Europe

The region's supply was constricted, as imports from the US fell as local demand in the US gulf region increased, followed by adverse weather conditions in the Northwest European region. The demand prognosis for the chemical in Europe remained modest due to decreased LPG offtakes for heating purposes during the offseason. Propane prices in Europe are normally lower during the summer months, as home heating demand declines, particularly in the largest exporting country, the United States.

However, demand from energy generation and industrial purposes remained robust, bolstered by improving purchasing attitudes. The general market prognosis was positive as propane prices increased significantly in Europe during Q3 of 2021. Prices CIF Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) increased by around 250 USD/MT from June to 778 USD/MT in September, which were the highest levels since 2014. Exports were constrained by low US stock levels at a time when European importers were trying to replenish their inventories.

North America

Supplies were severely curtailed in the first quarter of 2021 owing to severe freeze weather conditions in the US Gulf area. Increased demand and poor supply contributed to a massive increase in propane prices in the North American area. In the final week of March, the average price of residential propane in the United States was about 606 USD/MT.

The area's propane-butane supply forecast improved in contrast to the previous quarter, as production facilities in the USA Gulf region reported increased operational efficiency following the devastation caused by winter storm Uri. However, as their use in residential areas increases, regional LPG prices in Texas increased by 36% since January 2021.

Prices continued their upward trajectory, aided by a surge in the price of crude oil. The prices increased significantly in the third quarter of 2021 in the area. Propane prices in the primary US hub reached all-time highs in September, owing to restricted global supply and high demand.

Propane, a byproduct of natural gas production, also saw a substantial decrease in inventory levels, despite the fact that manufacturers historically maintained large winter stocks due to the US's reliance on LPG for heating. Propane futures traded at $1.09 and 95 cents a gallon, respectively, at hubs in Mont Belvieu, Texas, and Conway, Kansas during the month of July.

Latin America

Sales decreased in 2021 compared to 2020, which was an outlier year due to increasing demand. In Brazil, individuals cooked more at home in 2020, boosting LPG cylinder sales. Demand for LPG was also boosted by the emergency social handouts in 2020, as family income levels climbed. In 2021, cylinder sales declined by 4% as consumers returned to restaurants and increased their social interactions. However, robust consumption was reported in 2021, and sales remained above pre-pandemic levels.
 

Propane Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

Demand for the chemical in Asia remained robust, since nations such as China and India rely heavily on imports of this gas. India imports around 70% to 80% of its natural gas from Middle Eastern nations. Propane prices climbed in Q4 2020, as crude oil and natural gas prices surged in the APAC region. Additionally, due to limited supply from Middle Eastern countries, October 2020 spot prices were higher.

The prices stabilized in December 2020. Additionally, China's imports of propane increased significantly in Q4. China is one of the world's top users of LPG, with demand increasing due to the building of new petrochemical facilities and greenfield projects. Aramco had reduced the price of butane to 330 USD/MT in June, down from 340 USD/MT the previous month. (As of 31st May 2020)

Europe

European countries saw an increase in demand for the chemical as a result of the cold weather. Increased demand resulted in price increases in the European market. Saudi Aramco, the world's largest producer of propane, fixed the October 2020 contract price at 375 USD/MT and butane at 380 USD/MT, respectively. Propane prices increased by 10 USD/MT, as of September 2020. Demand was expected to grow in the following months as the winter season approached, and prices were expected to exceed 500 USD/MT in Q1 2021.

North America

High demand for propane was noted in North America as the seasons changed. Crude oil and natural gas prices steadily increased by 2-4% per month from September to December 2020. Propane and butane prices in the United States of America, Mexico, and Canada began an upward trend in Q4 2020, owing to the steady increase in the cost of the feedstock crude oil and natural gas.

Due to seasonality, demand for the chemical increased. Propane prices in the region were projected to be about 400 USD/MT in December 2020. The spot market had a sharp increase in costs as a result of North America's gas crisis.

Latin America

The United States has been the leading exporter of LPG to Latin America and the world. As a result, Mont Belvieu serves as the benchmark pricing throughout Latin America. Supply and demand patterns in global LPG markets that impact Mont Belvieu pricing have a direct effect on delivery prices in Latin America.

Delivered prices are the beginning point for the LPG cost that residential, commercial, industrial, and chemical users end up paying. These are made of the Mont Belvieu pricing, freight costs, and terminal fees. Delivered prices in Latin America climbed together with Mont Belvieu pricing over the previous few months.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Propane. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.