Silicon Price Trend and Forecast

Silicon Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Silicon in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Silicon Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

In the Asian market, the third quarter of 2024 was characterized by significant challenges for the silicon industry. China experienced a prolonged period of oversupply and reduced demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector.
 

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The Chinese market was further impacted by weak demand from key downstream industries, including solar and electronics, resulting in a continuous downward pressure on silicon prices. The domestic market saw production cuts and inventory pressures, with major manufacturers like Daqo New Energy reporting substantial financial losses. Polysilicon producers struggled with cash flow issues, leading to strategic production reductions.

Europe

European silicon markets demonstrated a nuanced landscape during Q3’24. Germany, a key player in the silicon market, observed stable pricing with slight fluctuations. The market was influenced by subdued demand from steel mills and increasing downstream inventories. Import dynamics played a crucial role, with Germany emerging as the primary source of polysilicon imports for China. The European market showed signs of resilience, particularly with potential opportunities arising from photovoltaic installation subsidies, especially in countries like the Netherlands. However, overall market sentiment remained cautious due to broader economic uncertainties.

North America

North American silicon markets presented a mixed picture in the third quarter. Despite challenges, the region showed promising signs of growth, particularly in renewable energy sectors. The Biden administration's expansion of solar energy development on federal lands provided some optimism. Key developments included partnerships in the solar and electric vehicle industries, such as Heliene's collaboration with Premier Energies and Samsung SDI's battery production plans. While short-term price pressures were evident, the long-term outlook remained positive, driven by increasing investments in sustainable energy and electric vehicle technologies.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, a gradual recovery driven by strategic production cuts, particularly in China, and increasing global demand for renewable energy and advanced technologies is anticipated for the Silicon industry in the coming months.
 

Silicon Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

After a relatively stagnant growth during the month of April, China's silicon export performance in May 2024 showed significant growth, with export volumes surpassing previous records, highlighting the sector's expansion and stability. However, by the end of June, the Chinese domestic market faced challenges, including increased inventories of silicon. These rising inventories raised concerns about oversupply, influencing global prices. The fluctuating economic activities within China continued to reverberate across the market, affecting both domestic and international trade dynamics.

Europe

In Germany, silicon metal prices remained stable for the majority of the second quarter of 2024, influenced by stagnant market sentiments. This stability depicted an overall equilibrium within the sector until the fourth week of June when a slight decline in prices was observed. This downward trend was driven by subdued demand from steel mills and an increase in downstream market inventories. Additionally, weakened economic activities in China contributed to apparent price fluctuations and an influx of attractively priced imports, which amplified the global market concerns. Further, the depreciation of trading momentum amid the re-routing of traditional trade routes and increased freight charges further hampered the growth of the market throughout the second quarter of 2024.

North America

In the United States, the silicon metal market mirrored the trends observed in the European countries. The US market remained stable throughout the second quarter, with no significant price changes. However, similar to Germany, towards the end phase, the market saw a marginal decline in prices due to reduced demand from steel mills and higher downstream inventories. The weakened economic conditions in China once again played a crucial role, causing market fluctuations and leading to the availability of competitively priced imports.

Further, the imposition of substantial duties on Russian ferrosilicon imports introduced a new challenge for the silicon market during the second quarter of 2024. These regulatory measures aimed to address unfair pricing practices and subsidies received by Russian producers, signaling a shift towards a more regulated trade environment. The implications of these duties were closely analyzed by market participants, who considered the potential ripple effects on pricing and supply dynamics.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Silicon is estimated to fluctuate on the basis of frail outlook of both downstream and feedstock industries, altering the trajectory of both production and procurement sector during the next few quarters of 2024.
 

Silicon Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

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Asia

China's metal silicon production surged by a notable percentage in 2023, which raised the stockpiles of the commodity in the region. The domestic demand notably increased, particularly in the polysilicon sector, which saw remarkable growth during Q1 of 2024. However, exports experienced a decline, influenced by reduced overseas demand and competition from other countries, lowering the profit margins and extensively affecting the pricing pattern of metal silicon.

As a result, the traders lowered their metal silicon spot prices from 2170 USD/MT to 2037 USD/MT in China. The oversupply situation further led to a downward trend in metal silicon prices, prompting the suspension of some high-cost production capacities and initiating destocking efforts across the industry. Despite the new production capacity planned for 2024, downstream sectors, particularly the semiconductor industries, struggled with low profitability, raising concerns about the addition of these plants.

Europe

Europe's metal silicon market has seen a notable price surge since early December, which was further continued in the January-March quarter too. Supply-side constraints, including reduced imports from third-country suppliers and shipping disruptions in the Red Sea, majorly drove this uptrend of the metal silicon market. However, the underlying demand conditions remained challenging due to macroeconomic factors, such as a rise in inflationary pressure and inclining rates of interest charged by the banking sector.

Despite some European producers facing financial and production difficulties, many market players raised their production rates in response to improved market conditions. Additionally, Europe's import decline from major suppliers like China and Brazil, coupled with the rising number of attacks on shipments, soured the trading relations of Europe with a number of countries, constraining the supply chains.

North America

The Global metal silicon market registered the consequences of the disruption of the major oceanic trade routes and the abrupt rise in the cost of transportation. The US market was also influenced by these global trends, especially regarding regulatory compliance and price pressures. The export of in-house-produced metal silicon declined by a great margin with the fall in the water levels of the Panama Canal and the rerouting of the Red Sea route.

The market also bore the consequences of limited trading activities with China and India as the travel time of shipments to Asian countries increased by almost 2-3 weeks, prompting the traders of both regions to explore cost-effective options. Further, the rise in crude oil, naphtha, and natural gas intensified the rise in the cost of production, limiting the production rates of manufacturing plants and leading to oscillations in the pricing patterns of metal silicon.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Metal Silicon is estimated to be driven by the positive outlook of the downstream automotive and semiconductor industries and the rising spending budget of consumers globally.
 

Metal Silicon Price Trend for October - December of 2023

Asia

In the Asian market, particularly in China, the silicon price trend in the fourth quarter of 2023 displayed a complex pattern. Initially, prices were under pressure due to an overabundance in supply and a subdued demand from downstream industries like polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminium alloys.

This led to a bearish market sentiment, especially as polysilicon prices dipped below production costs, prompting some smaller factories to cut back on production. The cancellation of futures market warehouse receipts in November exacerbated this trend, as a substantial supply influx into the spot market dampened price prospects.

However, by December, the onset of the dry season in southern provinces like Sichuan and Yunnan resulted in reduced production, slightly tilting the supply-demand balance. Coupled with solid financial support for prices and environmental production reductions in Xinjiang, the market saw a modest price rebound. This fluctuation underscores the sensitivity of the silicon market to regional production changes and broader economic conditions.

Europe

In Europe, the silicon price trend mirrored global trend due to interconnected supply chains and shared economic factors. The shift towards increased production in countries with hydropower advantages, like Brazil, Norway, and Iceland, impacted European markets, though the exact extent depended on the region's reliance on imports versus domestic production. European silicon prices were also influenced by the global trend of expanding downstream polysilicon demand, which provided some support against the downward price pressures experienced elsewhere.

North America

The North American price trend in the fourth quarter of 2023 aligned with the global trend to some extent, with regional specifics playing a role. Factors such as local production rates, import-export dynamics, and the state of downstream industries were key determinants. The broader shift in the global silicon market, with a decrease in exports from major producers and an increase in domestic consumption in countries like China, led to adjustments in North American supply chains.

Additionally, environmental and logistical factors unique to the region, similar to the issues faced in the Panama Canal for sodium chlorite, played a role in shaping the market.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the global silicon price trend is expected to show significant whirlwind in terms of fluctuations. Throughout 2024, silicon price trend will exhibit considerable fluctuation.
 

Silicon Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The silicon market in the third quarter exhibited stability only in its initial months as its price trend were driven by supportive demand. However, the situation quickly turned unfavorable as inventories expanded while sluggish downstream sector demand hampered the overall market sentiments.

In addition to this, the consumer sector also lowered its appetite and its ability to place substantial orders amid the economic decline in Asia Pacific countries. Additionally, the monsoon season and heavy rainfall in many parts of China disrupted the construction sector, presenting a further challenge to silicon prices.

Europe

The  silicon market in Europe experienced a bearish trajectory during the third quarter of 2023. The significant contributor in this declining trajectory of the silicon prices was the rising inflation rates and a consistent decline in end-user demand, particularly from the construction sector. The surge in inventories, coupled with high production rates, surpassed the demand, leading to a decline in silicon prices.

North America

In North America, the third quarter suffered from a downturn in the economy, diminishing downstream demand, and debt crisis that significantly influenced the negative trajectory of silicon prices. The third quarter of 2023 continued its declining trajectory on account of falling construction and related industrial sectors. In all, the poor demand led to a continuous rise in stockpiles in the region, negatively impacting overall trading sentiments and silicon prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of silicon are estimated to continue its declining trajectory as the demand from the downstream industries seems weak.
 

Silicon Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Silicon observed declining price trend throughout the first half of the year 2023. The spot prices of Silicon started with an average of around 2731 USD/MT in January’23 and closed the second quarter with an average of about 1946 USD/MT registering an average decline was about 28%. The primary reason behind these sluggish market trend was a decrease in the downstream demands from steel and smelting industries.

These industries had reserved stocks in advance, but they couldn’t be used because of the industrial shutdown by the Chinese Government due to Covid 19 lockdown. In early 2023 as the industries started reviving, silicon supplies increased, but demands didn’t as the consuming industries were still trying to utilize their stocked supplies. So, overall trend remained sullen in the Asian Silicon market.

Europe

European Silicon market almost replicated the trend seen in its Asian counterpart. Prices remained on a declining trail because of decreased demands from the manufacturing sector. In Europe, the economic recession hurdled all the market fundamentals. Because of the severe cost of living crisis, buying behavior changed significantly, especially for the construction sector and heavy metal industries. Demands, though, showed some positive signals but could not revive significantly, and the Silicon prices kept falling throughout the said period.

North America

In the North American region, Silicon price trend continued their journey downhill in the first two quarters of 2023. The ample availability of inventories, coupled with improved supplies and sullen demands, kept the Silicon prices dampened. The rise in interest rates because of the collapse of two major US banks and a global economic slowdown all contributed to keeping the consumption sector sluggish and the Silicon market down. Overall, bearish market sentiments were observed.

Analyst insight

According to Procurement Resource, Silicon market trend are expected to continue fluctuating in the upcoming months as the demand projections seem muted, given the current economic climate.
 

Silicon Price Trend For the Q4 of 2022

Asia

Given the power rationing norms and covid-mandated shutdowns, the industrial output of China suffered greatly. The reduced operating rates amid sluggish demands caused silicon prices to fall in the Chinese domestic market. Even with the opening of ports and positive trade movements, the downstream demand did not rebound greatly. Further, the reducing upstream costs aided the downfall of silicon price trend during the fourth quarter of 2022.

Europe

Similar sluggish price trend were seen for Silicon in European markets. The economic backlash unleashed owing to the Russia-Ukraine war led to an acute cost-of-living crisis, which altered consumption patterns. Even after the trade normalized, the demand did not pick up, considering the low consumer confidence in the market.

North America

The US domestic market mimicked the global price trend for Silicon. The trend kept almost stagnant throughout the fourth quarter, given the overflowing inventories and bearish demands. Furthermore, the labor strikes and falling upstream costs aided the fall in silicon prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Recourse, the price trend for Silicon are expected to remain volatile in the coming quarter, given the current uncertainties in the market supply-demand dynamics.
 

Silicon Price Trend For the Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2022

Asia

Silicon prices in China rose rapidly in the first two weeks of March before plummeting due to weakening market confidence. Prices of Silicone DMC steadied towards the end of March, while prices of Silicon metal did not follow the trend. Silicon metal prices continued to fall sharply, averaging 3540-3460 USD/MT.

Market demand for silicon metal was low, with only a few purchase requests received. Many small and medium-sized silicon factories increased their willingness to sell due to the sharp drop in revenues. Downstream industries were also constantly changing their production rhythms because of lower demand and the impediment of raw material delivery.

The declining price trend continued in the second quarter. Due to weak demand and prolonged procurement from the downstream industries, silicon metal prices were sluggish. The prices were also affected as the industries halted production owing to the covid related restrictions.

The factories resumed production after removing restrictions, but the Silicon prices remained on the lower end of the scale. As the prices of the raw materials stabilized and the cost of production improved in the third quarter, the prices were still low owing to the cautious buying activity of consumers, given the current grim market outlook. The silicon metal price averaged 2530 USD/MT at the end of the third quarter.

Europe

As a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, prices of materials increased. Silicon prices rose in January due to their shortage in Europe. Since Russia is the world's second-largest silicon manufacturer after China, its invasion of Ukraine resulted in the suspension of supplies. Sanctions on Russia imposed by the European buyers caused them to build stocks from other countries.

Silicon prices continued an upward trend in the second quarter due to rising European electricity and energy prices. However, as the demand for Russian Silicon continued to decrease, the segment became overstocked, and prices fell.

This price decline continued in the third quarter as the market's double-digit inflation and wait-and-see attitude heavily impacted the prices. The manufacturers could not pass the high costs to the consumers fearing demand destruction; hence their profits declined. The market remained sluggish, with the silicon prices averaging 3115 USD/MT towards the end of Q3.

North America

High prices of upstream materials like silica, pet coke, soft coal, and charcoal, along with rising electricity rates, resulted in an increase in Silicon prices in North America in the first quarter. These high prices continued in the second quarter. The increasing inflationary pressures amid supply constraints, complex logistics and labour shortages heavily impacted the price trend.

Towards the end of Q2, the prices began to decline owing to negative market sentiments. The higher quotations by the manufacturers to cushion their profits led to muted market transactions. The Silicon prices averaged 3020 USD/MT toward the end of Q3.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Silicon. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.