Soybean Price Trend and Forecast

Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Soyabean in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

After the additional imports of 5.5 lakh tons GM soymeal were allowed by the Indian government in order to help the poultry sector, soybean prices fell in the country. The prices eades by 7-8% in May. According to trade sources, soyabean prices  dropped by 500-600 INR/quintal in the third week of May in Madhya Pradesh mandis such as Dewas, Vidisha, and Khandwa, among others.

North America

In Q2 of 2022, season-average soybean price for 2022–2023 has been cut from 14.40 USD/bushel (bu) to 14.35 USD/bu.

Europe

Italian soybean prices averaged 662 EUR/MT in the second quarter of 2022.

Veneto has approximately 135 thousand hectares of soybean cultivation in Italy, followed by Friuli-Venezia Giulia, which has over 54 thousand hectares. This widespread use of soybeans is mostly due to low production costs and high sales costs, as well as the fact that cultivating soybeans disrupts cereal succession and enriches the ground.

For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In China, soybean outright prices reached 757.73 USD/MT in March 2022 increasing by 3% on a week-to-week basis and 10% on a month-to-month basis. The increase in soybean prices were a result of high freight costs amid low supplies. China bought 55-60 cargos which tightened the freight situation in the region. Active demand from Chinese buyers set the CFR China basis on rally mode amid rising Chicago Board of Trade futures.

North America

In the January, the soybean futures price in the US rose to more than 15 USD/bushel, the highest since June 2021, as production in Brazil was severely affected by drought-like conditions. According to reports from USDA, the soybean yield is estimated to drop by 3% to approximately 3.44 tonnes per hectare.

Latin America

In Brazil, the soybean crops were affected by the drought which brought down the production in 2022 and caused supply disruptions on a global level with the country being a major producer of the commodity. Production estimates of soybean dropped to lower than 120 million tonnes in January 2022 as compared to the 138 million tonnes of production in the previous year. Soybean prices also increased as a result of increasing demand for soybean oil in the global market.

For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Soybean prices in India continued to decrease from the high value of 47,000 INR/MT in May to 41000 INR/MT in September, which was quite stable during the months of October and November with slight fluctuations. In China, soybean prices continued to decrease during the fourth quarter from 4140 RMB/MT to 3520 RMB/MT.

Europe

After a decline in soybean prices during the month of September, the prices continue to rise for the fourth quarter from a value of 474.28 during September to 481.83 euros per metric ton during November. Soy’s increasing role in providing a sustainable protein supply in Europe will further increase its demand. Austria, Belgium, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Greece are some of the major producers to soy in Europe including several CEE countries.

North America

After its peak in May, reaching a high of 643 USD/MT, soybean prices started to decrease, reaching a value of 550.65 USD/MT. The major reason behind it was the delayed and slow pace of China soybean crush and growing stocks which also raised questions about the sustainability of the US exports to China.

Latin America

After a decline in year-high prices during May (3410 BRL/MT), they were quite stable with some fluctuations. In the fourth quarter, the price stood around 3010 BRL /MT.

For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

The domestic soybean prices continued to rise, with the pricing of 4,000 RMB/MT, the highest in 8 years. At the beginning of August, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,700 RMB/MT, while it rose to 3,958 RMB/MT towards month end. Hence, an increase of 6.97% in prices was observed.

According to the USDA, global soybean production was expected to rise by 6% to 386 MMT in 2021-22 mainly because of the larger crop sizes in the United States and India. The MSP for soyabean from September-December 2021 was 526USD/MT whereas the overall domestic prices in India ranged between 706-892 USD/MT.

Europe

The price in Europe drastically increased from 325 EUR/MT in July 2020 to a year high of 473.12 EUR/MT. The price increased continuously (520 EUR/MT as of May 2021) as the demand for the products rose sharply.

North America

According to the USDA's forecasts, the United States was anticipated to produce 120.4 MMT of beans in 2021-2022, representing an almost 5% year-on-year rise and making the current marketing year output the greatest since 2018-2019. At the same time, South America was predicted to produce the greatest crop in history, with Brazil harvesting roughly 144 million tonnes of beans and Argentina harvesting an additional 49.5 million tonnes.

An increase of financial flows connected to rising global inflation pushed commodity prices even more in 2021. Because of anticipated increases in supply, soybean prices slightly decreased from multi-year highs, beginning in June 2021. By the quarter end, the prices observed were close to 576.3 USD/MT

Latin America

The South American industry, notably the Brazilian market, being the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans, plays an important role in the global soybean market and its pricing.

The marketing year 2020-21 (September–August) US soybean inspection for exports was predicted at 55.7 MMT, up from 34 MMT last year, with the majority of volumes headed for China. According to the Brazilian Foreign Trade Department, the country shipped 33 MMT of beans from January to April, representing a 3.5% rise year on year.

The highest price observed during this quarter was 3410 BRL/MT which declined to 3040 BRL/MT and then closely fluctuated during the entire quarter.

For the Year 2020

Asia

China's annual soybean imports have more than doubled in the recent decade, with an import of approximately a million metric tonnes for 2019-2020 (USDA) accounting for 87% of total Asian imports of 115 million tonnes. Overall, China accounts for more than 60% of global soybean commerce, any increase in Chinese oilseed imports is likely to support world soybean prices. China imported 28.63 million mt of soybeans in the first quarter of 2021, mostly keeping prices flat.

The importance of China in soybean trade cannot be neglected and having the knowledge and understanding of the role that source and product form plays in determining demand is of particular importance to exporters in the United States, Brazil, and Argentina as they continuously try to increase their share of the Chinese market.

Despite of growing demand, the estimated supply for China was stable, and the wholesale price was 4,275 ($657.7) to 4,475 RMB/MT.
 
Domestically produced soybean prices in India decreased drastically from 95 INR/kg to 60-55 INR/kg after the government permitted the import of 12 lakh tonnes of genetically modified soymeal in August.

Europe

Soybean prices declined slightly during the first two quarters from 348 to 324 EUR/MT post which they increased continuously for the whole year, attaining its peak at the end with a price of 420 EUR/MT.

North America

In 2021, prices hit their highest level since 2012 at 16.06 USD/Bu (bushel), continuing a sharp climb that began in mid-2020 and continued to rise substantially in the first half of 2021 from 8.7 USD/Bu to 14.37 USD/Bu. Since the second quarter of 2020, prices had been bolstered by monetary policies proposed by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world to mitigate the economic shock produced by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Latin America

The prices in Brazil showed a similar trend in terms of continuous increase from Jan 2020 to Nov 2020 ranging from 1610 BRL/MT to 2720 BRL/MT with a slight decrease in prices during the year end, where the price stood at 2620 BRL/MT.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Soybean. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.