Sugar (Retail) Price Trend and Forecast

Sugar (Retail) Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Sugar in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Asia

Asian sugar markets witnessed significant volatility. India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, encountered substantial challenges. Extreme weather conditions, including the driest August in over a century, dramatically impacted sugar production.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Chart

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El Niño's effects resulted in reduced crop yields, particularly in India and Thailand. These factors triggered price escalations and supply constraints.

Europe

The European sugar market experienced moderate challenges during the year. While specific price fluctuations were not extensively detailed, the region faced broader agricultural pressures. Supply chain disruptions and agricultural productivity concerns contributed to subtle price variations. The market remained relatively stable compared to other global regions, with modest price increments driven by production costs and agricultural inputs.

North America

The North American sugar market experienced moderate price pressures. Climate variations and agricultural productivity influenced sugar pricing dynamics. While not experiencing the most extreme fluctuations, the region still saw incremental price increases driven by global supply chain challenges and agricultural input costs.

Latin America

Latin America, particularly Brazil - the world's largest sugar exporter - encountered severe market disruptions. Devastating fires in São Paulo's sugar-cane fields during August 2024 destroyed approximately 60,000 hectares of crops. Major producers like Raizen SA and Sao Martinho reported significant crop damages, with Raizen estimating 1.8 million tonnes of sugar cane affected. These incidents triggered substantial price increases, with raw sugar futures experiencing a 4.2% surge in a single day.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the global Sugar market is anticipated to remain volatile. Increasing climate change impacts, regulatory shifts, and production challenges are likely to continue influencing pricing mechanisms.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

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Global food prices impact domestic inflation in India, particularly in the sugar market. To manage sugar inflation and ensure sufficient local supplies, the government announced restrictions on sugar exports in October '23. These restrictions have helped stabilize domestic sugar prices. As a result, domestic sugar prices have remained much less volatile compared to global trends.

The monthly average prices have shown increments in the country amidst ever-rising consumption; however, the growth rate has been slow. In 2024, the year began with a monthly average price of about 536 USD/MT in January '24. Further, with subliminal rises, the prices went up to around 550 USD/MT in June '24. Retail sugar prices in India have shown fluctuations due to various factors.

India's 2023/24 sugar reserves increased fairly compared to 2022/23, prompting a call for the government to reconsider export restrictions. However, concerns over domestic sugar production were heightened by a fungus disease affecting crops in Uttar Pradesh and below-normal monsoon rainfall, which could curb output.

Europe

Just like its American counterpart the retail sugar prices rallied below expectations in the European markets as well. The surplus inventories in key producing countries like India and Brazil exerted downward pressure on global sugar prices. Despite India's export restrictions the global trends remained pressured.

In Q1, Europe's largest sugar producer, Suedzucker, saw a more than 40% drop in earnings due to higher costs and lower sugar prices. The company's sugar, biofuel, and starch segments all reported declines. The company attributed market volatility to the ongoing war in Ukraine and anticipated moderate growth in sugar beet cultivation for the 2024 harvest.

North America

In 2024, sugar prices in the USA experienced fluctuations influenced by several global factors. A significant factor was India's expected sugar surplus prompting potential export policy reconsiderations. This surplus led to a temporary decrease in sugar prices. Additionally, Brazil's robust sugar production and the weaker Brazilian Real, which encourages export selling, have put downward pressure on global sugar prices.

However, a global sugar deficit projected by the International Sugar Organization and record heat affecting Thailand's sugarcane crops has also influenced market dynamics. American sugar prices faced pressure due to an expected global sugar surplus and increased Brazilian production. NY sugar prices fell as Brazilian production surged and the prospects for better rainfall in India and Thailand improved.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, with the scattered monsoon, the harvest yields for the coming months are doubtful, which can affect the global sugar supply security. Therefore, the prices are expected to slightly improve in the upcoming months.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Index for the Q1 of 2024

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Sugar (Retail) Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Asia

During the third quarter of 2023, the Chinese market for retail sugar showed positive momentum, with prices moving upward. This increase was largely due to reduced sugar inventories and limited imports. However, as the fourth quarter began, inventories started to grow, and sales of retail sugar declined, leading to stable prices. The overseas imports during this season also witnessed a remarkable jump, indicating the rapid expansion of the consumer base and limitations in the production volumes of the domestic manufacturers.

Europe

Contrary to market expectations, production outpaced demand from downstream industries, hindering market growth in the third quarter of 2023. The influx of Ukrainian imports, following the removal of import duties after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, further increased inventories. However, variable weather conditions caused by El Nino led to a rise in prices during the fourth quarter of 2023. Consequently, retail sugar prices eventually increased from mid-year levels. The port congestion activities and labor strikes further depreciated the market activities and led to swindling of market momentum during the H2 of 2023.

North America

In North America, the upward trend in retail sugar prices was mainly driven by the loss of sugarcane crops in several Asian countries, which tightened supply chains. Other regions also reported crop losses, depleting North American inventories. Additionally, the shift of the sugarcane market towards ethanol production further reduced reserves, supporting the upward movement of retail sugar prices in the region.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Sugar (Retail) is estimated to showcase a bullish trend in the new year as global traders anticipate that the agricultural production and the demand for the commodity might move opposite to each other.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Retail Sugar market saw a steep incline in price trend throughout the discussed period. India, which is the biggest producer and exporter of Sugar, influenced the global Sugar market. The reduced sugarcane yield affected the retail sugar prices. Due to uncertain climate changes and uneven rainfall patterns, the agricultural outputs suffered immensely. Prices in the global market reached a 6-year high within the first quarter as the news related to the exhaustion of India’s export quota started surfacing.

According to Niti Ayog, only about 35% of sugar is used for household consumption; the rest, 65%, is industrially consumed, and as the industries started hoarding and purchasing in excess, the prices rose further. In the second quarter, the retail sugar prices saw a hike of about 11% within weeks. Overall, bullish market trend were observed for retail sugar during the said period.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Sugar (Retail) are going to rise further as the fear about India’s Sugar export ban is mounting, causing the buyers to actively hoard the commodity.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Retail Sugar prices observed mixed price trend throughout the said period. Markets witnessed some unexpected attempts at stabilization; China was trying to recover from the lockdown consequences while the Russia – Ukraine conflict stretched beyond thought, forcing regions to figure out new supply chains and trade routes.

As the prices had already risen unexpectedly in the previous quarter, to reduce some burden on consumers, inventories were being extensively used to keep the prices hovered within a narrow range. New supply chains and treaties like the Black Sea deal further supported the Retail Sugar prices. Overall, a blended price sentiment with some highs and some lows was observed.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for Sugar (Retail) are going to rise further as low production yields suggest market tensions.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend For the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

The Indian government has put restrictions on sugar exports beginning on June 1, 2022, with the goal of increasing the commodity's availability on the domestic market and regulating the price growth. In Q2 of 2022, the approximate price range for sugar in India was 540 USD/MT.

North America

U.S. sugar ending stocks for Q2 of 2022 were lower than 2021 in May 2022 , mostly due to a reduced supply. Greater initial stocks in 2022/23 compared to 2021/22 were offset by reduced domestic sugar production, especially of beet sugar, lower imports set at the minimum levels required by trade agreements, and average production of Mexican sugar destined for the United States.

In Q2 of 2022, the approximate spot price range for sugar in US was between 1631 to 1686 USD/MT.

Latin America

On the domestic market, refined Brazilian sugar averaged 3.51 BRL/kg in May 2022, not far from the record-breaking top of BRL 3.87/kg set in November 2021. Wider worldwide inflation linked to fuel and energy costs is what's driving up commodity prices, and this calendar year, it's expected that global sugar demand growth will outpace global sugar production growth.

As a result, Brazilian sugar mills are expected to generate significant profits in 2022. Additionally, the strength in the price of gasoline on a worldwide scale makes the manufacture of ethanol more appealing than sugar for human consumption. During the 2022–2023 season, Brazilian sugar mills are anticipated to divert 57% of sugarcane feedstock into ethanol, up from 53% the previous year. This might limit local supply of food-grade sugar and increase sugar prices.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The spot prices of white granulated sugar in China increased by 0.07% on a year-on-year basis in the first week of March with prices at 5796 RMB/MT. The international market for sugar strengthened and the domestic market is likely to follow a similar trend causing pricing to rise in future. Favourable weather conditions in Guangxi production areas improved harvesting and crushing progress. The import costs of sugar increased while sugar futures in Zhengzhou also went up.

Europe

Europe is the second biggest consumer of sugar and the third biggest producer in the world. In Western Europe, white sugar NWE prices started to climb in 2022, reaching 603 EUR/MT towards the end of January. The prices further increased to 651 EUR/MT in February and continued to rise till the second week of March at 681 EUR/MT.

North America

During the week ending March 31, 2021, the average weekly sugar price  at the InterContinental Exchange (ICE) NY plummeted to a 10-week low of  14.88 US cents/Ib. Since reaching at a four-year high of USc 17.02/Ib in late February 2021, the ICE sugar price has gradually weakened. The high in February marked the end of a 10-month bullish trend that was mostly driven by supply constraints in key producing regions.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

The sugarcane production in India had been flourishing due to favourable weather conditions but the major part of the produce was used for ethanol production as a result of the country’s ethanol blending programme instead of sugar production, bringing down the levels by around 3 MMT, causing the global sugar balance to deteriorate.

The demand increased in Asian countries as the freight costs declined. The global demand was estimated at 188.4 MMT, while the production was projected at 186.6 MMT. The production in India was estimated to remain the same as in the previous year, close to 31 MMT.

Europe

Raw sugar (retail) prices in Europe hit their highest since 2017 in November 2021, at a cost of 527 USD/MT. The raw sugar prices also peaked at 20.42 cents in November, the highest in 4 years. The market price in Europe increased by 35 EUR/MT as compared to those of the previous year.

North America

Refined and retail sugar price in the US was recorded at 1517 USD/MT in the final quarter of 2021. The increase in gas prices, along with limited supply from India and Brazil led to tight global supplies. The production in Brazil had been hampered due to the dry weather while in India more sugarcane was being diverted for biofuel production. Raw sugar prices were close to 19.50 cents per pound in the US in December 2021.

Latin America

The production levels for sugarcane were less by 12% in Brazil as compared to the previous year. However, the production in the first quarter of 2022 was expected to increase by 6%, as sugarcane volumes reached close to 565.3 MMT in the region.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In India, the market witnessed an upward trend in the prices with a rise of 400-500 INR/quintal as the demand increased with the festival season around the corner. The demand had increased not just in the domestic market but in the international market as well as a result of the supply deficit in the global market. As markets recovered from the pandemic, the consumption increased pushing the demand for the commodity.

In the third quarter of 2021, raw sugar prices in India were around 3450-3580 INR/quintal, close to 500 USD/MT. The rising prices were a result of poor production in Brazil and a shortage in global market. The domestic overloading charges and logistic problems with truck being stopped in Mumbai were also reasons for the price hike in the region. The crude oil prices had also gone up which impacted the price rise in the overall sugar market.

Europe

The white sugar prices in Europe hit a four-year high in the third quarter as stock levels for the commodity dipped in 2021. Raw sugar prices were estimated at 539 EUR/MT and 520 EUR/MT in Northwest and Mediterranean Europe respectively in August 2021. The prices had been high in Greece and Italy in Mediterranean Europe while the prices in Spain were flat. In Northwest Europe, the prices were soaring high in Netherlands, Belgium and Germany while prices in France remained mostly stable.

As lockdowns were lifted in the region, the market demand went up in July and August with the rise in consumption levels. The supply had been tight, as crops in the region suffered from poor weather conditions like heavy downpour and lack of sunshine which raised concerns for the new crop as well as delayed the harvest which caused the prices in Italy to go up.

North America

Refined sugar (retail) prices were around 68.4 cents/lb in the third quarter of 2021. The prices were up by 19.2 cents per pound, a 1.3% rise in October. The crops of about 118,000 acres in the region were impacted negatively by the hurricane Ida in Louisiana which amounted for roughly 26% of the crop to be harvested. The prices had recovered from the price slump in August at 18.57 cents per pound. However, exports from India increased its supplies in the region causing prices to remain stable once again.

The price in the US in 2021 had doubled from those in 2017. In the second half of the year, the USDA reported the highest price since 2012. The price rose as the crop yields had suffered in the previous year due to drought in Brazil along with the fire outbreaks due to high temperatures which affected the sugarcane fields. This was followed by the onset of frost waves which again impacted the crops adversely, causing global deficits in its supply. The price rose for five consecutive months in 2021 and had risen by 9.6% from July to August.

Latin America

The production in Mexico were estimated at around 6.3 MMT as the crops were impacted positively by the heavy rains lifting the drought conditions in the region. Mexico witnessed elevated levels of sugar production in the major producing states of Jalisco, Veracruz, Chiapas and San Luis Potosi, as the prices increased in the region due to the high global demand.

The stability in prices along with profitability were supported by the domestic government policies. Mexico had the highest sugar prices in 2021. In Brazil, the production fell by 6 MMT due to unfavourable weather conditions like lack of rain and frosts. This fall in production heavily impacted the global prices and supplies of sugar, with Brazil being its major producer and exporter in the world. The prices in the region remained firm, as exports dropped due to production issues.
 

Sugar (Retail) Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

Indonesia has been one of the largest importers of sugar from Brazil, Thailand and India. The consumption of the commodity in Asia was affected by the covid-19 pandemic. China imposed certain restrictions for cargoes and visitors, in response to the pandemic, which caused problems in its imports in the region.

The prices in 2020 were on the downward trend due to the low demand as a result of reduced consumption. However, as the Chinese economy improved by the end of the year along with supply problems from India and Brazil, as well as an increase in oil prices, a gradual rise in prices was seen in the region.

Europe

The price in Europe increased by the third quarter of 2020 due to low supply from major producing countries like Brazil and India. The supply disruptions were caused by poor crops in Brazil as well as logistical issues in India due to the pandemic. The FAO price index rose by 7.6 % in September 2020. However, European Union also witnessed a decline in the consumption as consumers shifted to non-caloric sweeteners.

North America

As supplies were disrupted, the prices soared high in in March 2020 in the US. The prices increased in spite of low demand levels amidst the pandemic, due to tightened supplies from Brazil as crops suffered due to a dry weather. A poor crop yield in Thailand also caused disruptions in the global supply while supplies from India were delayed due to logistical problems caused by the transport restrictions owing to the pandemic.

Prices in October 2020 had risen by more than 21% to 13 cents per pound, from those in April at 9.67 cents per pound. In 2020, the volume of imported sugar in the US was 2.4 MMT and costed about USD 1.2 billion, a 2.4% rise from 2019. The average refined sugar (retail) prices in 2020 were about 1350 USD/MT.

Latin America

The countries of Mexico and Brazil were the major exporters of the commodity to the US in 2020, contributing close to 40% of the total imports. In 2020, the exports from Brazil to US had nearly doubled. In terms of value, Mexico had the greatest share exporting sugar worth of USD 423 million to the US, responsible for 34% of the total imports in the region while Brazil exported 404 thousand tonnes at a value of USD 185 million, comprising 15% of the imports.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Sugar (Retail). Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.