Toluene Price Trend and Forecast

Toluene Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Toluene in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Toluene Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

In Q2 2024, the Chinese toluene market faced challenges in sustaining high prices due to increasing oversupply and fluctuating demand dynamics. Since the Russia-Ukraine war, Chinese exports of high-octane products surged, driving prices up to recent highs. However, by mid of the second quarter, the oversupply issue, exacerbated by increased exports from South Korea to the U.S., pressured prices downward. Additionally, gasoline prices trended downward, with blending profits near losses, further dampening demand for toluene in the gasoline sector.
 

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The disproportionation industry and self-use by refineries also saw limited toluene flow. Despite the long-term arbitrage window between Asia and the U.S., tepid gasoline feedstock demand in the U.S. and fluctuating price differences led to reduced support for Chinese prices. With new units increasing toluene supply and some PX units shutting down, the supply-demand imbalance is projected to persist, preventing a return to earlier high prices in the short term.

Europe

In the second quarter of 2024, toluene prices in the European market trended downwards primarily due to reduced demand from the construction and paints sectors, which are major consumers of toluene. This decline was exacerbated by decreasing naphtha prices, a key feedstock for toluene production, as well as fluctuating energy costs.

Market conditions were further influenced by challenges in the German construction industry, which faced a contraction amidst economic pressures such as rising interest rates and inflation. Additionally, disruptions in logistics, including closures of sections of the Rhine River due to high water levels, impacted supply chains and restrained buyers from placing higher orders.

Despite uncertainties in automotive industry consumption and restricted Toluene supply from the Chinese market, European prices were stabilized by balanced import-export dynamics and moderated supplier deliveries. Looking forward, market analysts anticipate stable Toluene prices in Europe, driven by subdued new orders and backlogs across key sectors, reflecting overall market cautiousness and supply chain complexities.

North America

In the second quarter of 2024, toluene prices in the US market declined steadily due to weak overall domestic demand and ample supply. The value of Toluene, closely tied to downstream and derivative sectors such as construction and paints, faced downward pressure as these industries saw reduced activity compared to previous years. The pricing balance was influenced by naphtha prices remaining low, impacting production costs and contributing to the overall oversupply of toluene.

Economic uncertainties, tight lending conditions, and an oversupply of warehouse facilities further restrained new developments and construction activities, affecting Toluene demand. Additionally, the impact of Tropical Storm Alberto on the Gulf Coast exacerbated market conditions, with flooding disrupting logistical operations. Despite adequate supply to meet Polyurethane segment demands, producers responded to weak market signals by reducing quotations and scaling back production. Consequently, toluene prices in the US market settled lower, reflecting subdued demand across key industrial sectors throughout the quarter.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Toluene is expected likely to continue its present stance given the reduction of inventories in major exporting nations and diversion of global consumer base towards other related commodities.
 

Toluene Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Stay updated with the latest Toluene prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

The Asian markets performed fairly well during the said period. Suppliers were positive and ordered well; quarter one began on a clear and firm note. Markets were seen inclining in both India and China as petroleum prices rose in the international markets. Russia and Iraq, two prominent members of OPEC+, underwent a decline in output, which consequently pulled the prices up for the whole petrochemical industry. In the Indian toluene market, the prices went from about 970 USD/MT in January '24 to around 987 USD/MT in March '24.

The downstream solvent and chemical industries put forward consistent demands. Similarly, in the Chinese domestic market, growing with an approximate 6% rate in the monthly average rates, the toluene prices went from about 948 USD/MT in January '24 to around 1011 USD/MT in March '24. Overall, very positive market sentiments were witnessed in Q1'24.

Europe

The European market for toluene closely mirrored the situation in Asia, with prices exhibiting similar trends. The whole petrochemical industry was witnessing a surge in prices as significant disruption occurred in the region's energy infrastructure due to Ukraine's attack on major Russian oil refineries.

Operations faced hurdles, resulting in a notable 7% decline in Russian oil output. These surges in petroleum prices raised the upstream processing and production costs for toluene which provided a positive push to the prices. Downstream demands were stable and supported the incline in price trajectory. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea region posed logistical obstacles for Middle Eastern producers, further impacting the market.

North America

Given the uncertainties and rush in the global petroleum markets, the American toluene industry also replicated similar fluctuations. The rise in crude oil prices pushed the price graph in a positive direction. However, the trade disturbances in the international markets because of the Russian and Israeli war were affecting the American markets significantly. This created a riddled market dynamics for toluene in the American region. Despite this, the price trajectory was notably positive throughout the said time.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Toluene price trends are likely to continue varying in the coming months as well. Given the current macroeconomic indicators and fluctuations in the petroleum industry, the prices are likely to remain in a similar range going forward.
 

Toluene Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The toluene market in Asia experienced sliding trend during the said period of Q4’23. Ample and unrestricted availability of its feedstock hydrocarbons led to the supply excess which in turn bulked up the inventories and created upstream cost pressure for the toluene suppliers. The downstream chemical industries were also not posing any significant demands, which further toppled the toluene market sentiments.

In the Indian domestic market, the monthly average spot prices declined by almost 13% as the prices shifted from around 1165 USD/MT in October of 2023 to about 1012 USD/MT in December of 2023. Similarly, the Chinese toluene market witnessed a depreciation of about 11% as the monthly average prices here dipped from around 1046 USD/MT in October’23 to around 922 USD/MT in December’23. Overall, weak market trend were noticed in the Asian region during the concerned period of Q4’23.

Europe

The European toluene market performed slightly better at the price index compared to the other major global toluene markets. The European markets were relatively less sluggish during the given time since industrial activities increased their pace at the beginning of the quarter to compensate for the impending holiday season. Even though the prices wavered within a narrow range, the market tilted more towards the positive side.

North America

The American toluene market positively witnessed trend throughout the final quarter of 2023. The first half of the quarter was relatively slow. However, the supply disturbances because of the geopolitical disturbances pushed the market up in the latter phase. The general market trend for toluene remained afloat for the entire span.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Toluene price trend are likely to experience similar fluctuations in the coming quarter as well. Market analysis suggests that the prices will vary regionally, provided the other factors remain the same.
 

Toluene Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

The third quarter of 2023 proved fruitful for the toluene price trend as they inclined from around 994 USD/MT in July to 1134 USD/MT (Spot, FD) in September in China. The growth of the toluene price graph was on account of the rising cost of crude oil that increased the prices of manufacturing toluene. The energy-producing countries faced several sanctions on their exports which raised the prices of fuel in other parts of the globe. On the other hand, the number of purchases of toluene also inclined, positively affecting the toluene price graph resulted in the revival of the industrial sector of Asian countries.

Europe

In Europe, the toluene prices experienced a significant surge during the third quarter of 2023. The rising cost of crude oil also exerted a positive influence on the toluene market. Further, the paints and coatings domestic and overseas industries raised their number of inquiries for toluene and also played a major part in keeping the prices over the top. Further, toluene acts as a solvent and important ingredient in the manufacturing of a number of industrially important products, and those industries bloomed in the third quarter, giving the toluene market its required momentum.

North America

The upswing in the prices of crude oil and other upstream products had a significant share in helping the inclination in the toluene price trend. The demand from the industrial sector performed well throughout the third quarter and supported the rise in the toluene price trend. Additionally, the construction industries regained their momentum and thus helped in the surge in the toluene price graph.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Toluene are expected to follow an oscillating trajectory as the feeble economic conditions around the globe will soon catch up with the positive demand from the downstream industries.
 

Toluene Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

In the first quarter, the price trend of Toluene declined by almost 6% due to the restricted movement of the market because of covid restrictions. However, the prices started inclining in the second quarter as the manufacturing activities increased, given the total removal of covid restrictions.

The spot prices of Toluene averaged around 1031 USD/MT in May’23. The prices dipped a little towards the end of June. However, the prices were supported by the stable crude oil costs and balance in supply-demand equilibria. A similar trend was observed in the Indian market, where the spot prices averaged around 975 USD/MT in June’23.

Europe

A fluctuating trend in the prices of Toluene was observed in the first two quarters of 2023. The prices inclined due to the positive outlook of the solvents, paints, and coatings industries. The region was also supported by the cost pressure offered by crude oil prices and stable rates of production that persisted throughout the first half of 2023. There were some slight fluctuations in the demand sector; overall, the price trajectory of Toluene remained in the positive zone.

North America

The North American market did not support the rise in the prices of Toluene in the first and second quarters of 2023. The prices suffered from the weak support from the crude oil sector and sluggish dynamics of the paints and solvent industries. This situation improved slightly in March as the supply-demand equilibria showed some stabilization, and the activities of the toluene derivatives sector also began to improve.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Toluene is estimated to record an oscillating pattern in the upcoming quarter. The solvent and paint industries are gaining momentum and increasing their output rates which are estimated to support the global toluene market.
 

Toluene Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

The price trend of Toluene in the third and fourth quarters of 2022 witnessed a gradual decline due to the weak demand from the domestic industries and a reduced number of orders. The market was also adversely affected by the production rate cuts as the Chinese government restricted manufacturing activities due to prevalent heat waves in the region. The support from the crude oil sector and international markets could not back the toluene market, thus, aiding the falling prices.

Europe

The price trend of Toluene in the last two quarters of 2022 dipped significantly in the European region due to a notable decline in demand from the downstream industries. The negative impact of the increasing inventories, falling crude oil prices, and weak purchasing nature of the buyers caused the southward movement of the toluene prices in the European region.

North America

A mixed trend in the prices of Toluene was observed in North America. The decline in the prices was backed by the weak support from the feedstock materials, low freight rate, and low inquiries from the traders. In addition, the price trend was also affected by the slow market of solvent industries that had a negative impact on the demand sector and thus stroked the downward trajectory of the toluene prices.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price of Toluene is estimated to show a mixed trend in the upcoming quarter. The commodity prices will be majorly influenced by the demand from the solvent industry and uneven production rates.
 

Toluene Price Trend for the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

During the second quarter of 2022, the Asia Pacific region experienced contradictory market attitudes for toluene. Toluene prices decreased in China in April as a result of a large supply and weak demand from the construction and downstream cosmetics industries. Moreover, the ongoing Covid ban in some Chinese cities had an effect on toluene market sentiment. However, as downstream output has increased following the May Day holidays, toluene prices have risen since the middle of the quarter. The increase in toluene demand to create the downstream product benzene impacted the toluene market. The increase in transportation costs brought on by the rise in fuel prices resulted in an increase in the market for toluene as well.

North America

Due to the price of raw materials, toluene prices  in the North American region is constantly changing, initially rising and then declining in the second quarter of 2022. Morever, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine disrupted the market for toluene by driving upstream crude prices and feedstock benzene.

Russian invasion caused a rerouting of shipments that exacerbated the trend in toluene prices. The market for the chemical was also impacted by rising fuel prices and freight costs. In addition, prices have increased as a result of US sanctions against Russian gas due to the energy crisis. Therefore, in June 2022, per ton price of toluene in the USA was set at 1225 USD.

Europe

The second quarter of 2022 saw an increase in toluene prices on the European market, driven by a rise in local demand. The scarcity of upstream crude supply also contributed to the price hike.

Additionally, the need for sanctions against Russia's oil embargo and the escalation in energy prices brought on by geopolitical upheaval have boosted the price of toluene. Due to high domestic demand and rising output, the toluene market has grown even more. A further factor in the rise in toluene pricing is its increased demand to make its derivative toluene diisocyanate.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of Toluene are expected to go down in the second half of the year; however, they might be reconnoitred later. The primary reason behind the languid prices for Toluene would be passive demand from downstream products. Moreover, Toluene's stockpiling and failing operational rates may further hit the prices. On the contrary, the LNG demand might cause the toluene market to be reinforced, causing prices to gain momentum.
 

Toluene Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In the first quarter of 2022, toluene prices in Asia Pacific started to rise. As a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, upstream crude prices have risen, causing a price increase in the toluene market. Furthermore, the regional market's toluene price trajectory was influenced by the disruption of commerce and port congestion caused by the return of COVID in China. In addition, the increase in demand for downstream paint, ink, and adhesives has caused the price of toluene to skyrocket. Furthermore, higher freight costs have boosted the region's Toluene market. Thus, by the quarter ending March 2022, CFR toluene prices in India had stabilised at 815 USD/MT.

Europe

Toluene prices increased in the first quarter of 2022 as a result of an increase in demand from the regional market. The price increase was prompted by increasing demand for ink, paints, and adhesives. Furthermore, upstream crude was influenced by geopolitical tensions, which had a negative impact on petroleum feedstocks, causing rail and road traffic bottlenecks across the Black Sea. Furthermore, the continuation of Europe's energy crisis, which began when Russian gas was suspended following their invasion of Ukraine, resulted in a considerable price hike. As a result, in March 2022, the FOB price of toluene in Germany was estimated to be 1150 USD/MT.

North America

Toluene prices soared in the first quarter of 2022, owing to increased demand from downstream industries such as paints, adhesives, and glues. Furthermore, the interruption created by the Russia-Ukraine conflict contributed in an increase in upstream Crude and feedstock Benzene prices, which impacted the Toluene market. Furthermore, after the Russian invasion, shipments were rerouted, delaying supplies and hurting the Toluene price trend. The Toluene market was also impacted by rising fuel prices and freight costs. Furthermore, once the United States imposed sanctions on Russian gas, the energy issue has pushed up costs. In March 2022, the cost of toluene in the United States was 1225 USD/MT.
 

Toluene Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In Asia, the price of toluene varied across the countries in the last quarter of 2021. In China, the price fluctuated throughout the quarter due to changing prices of benzene and also due to variations in demand. In Shanghai, toluene prices rose from 993 USD/MT to 1022 USD/MT from October to November and finally dropped to 915 USD/MT in December 2021. In India, a similar trend was witnessed as prices dropped by 115 USD/MT from October to December 2021. This fall in price was due to ample supplies of toluene as well as benzene.

Europe

In the final quarter of 2021 in Europe, the market witnessed an increase in toluene prices due to the limited supply from the manufacturers. Imports were restricted and reduced from Asia due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which also led to a shortage of supply among local producers. Production levels were also low due to an upsurge in natural gas prices. In Hamburg, toluene prices increased by 75 USD/MT from October 2021 to December 2021, reaching 910 USD/MT.

North America

In the fourth quarter of 2021, toluene prices witnessed a downward trajectory backed by the ample supply of the product as the major producers such as Dow and ExxonMobil resumed their toluene production in September. The demand outlook mostly remained stable throughout the quarter. A dip in crude oil prices led to an increase in the benzene price; this, coupled with narrow demand, affected toloune prices in the region. Consumers were not willing to stock large amounts of toluene, which was yet another reason for its price fall. In December 2021, the price in the US was 853 USD/MT.
 

Toluene Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In India, a consistent and gradual rise in toluene prices was noted as industries started to recover from the pandemic. As transportation restrictions were lifted by the state governments, the demand increased along with the rising levels of petrochemical consumption. A significant price hike was witnessed as the Chinese government imposed taxes on the commodities that were imported, which included aromatics.

This in turn affected the pricing trend of the chemical in China’s domestic market by the end of quarter 2. In Shanghai, toluene prices were reported to be around 740 USD/MT in June. Demand dynamics were surging in Asia as demand continued to increase owing to rising consumption levels in the coating and paint industries as building construction increased.

Prices rose with the increasing demand in the third quarter of 2021. Industries increased their operating costs for plant operations, which led to an upward trend in the domestic demand. By the end of quarter 3, toluene prices were as high as 824 USD/MT. However, it was not as high as expected due to the swinging crude oil market.

Europe

Toluene supplies were controlled in the first quarter of 2021 in Europe following a decline in consumption levels due to the pandemic-induced lockdowns that affected mobility, transportation, and the economy, which led to low toluene demand. The price in quarter 1 of 2021 in Germany was 598 USD/MT. The supply was tight in the European region owing to the delay in resuming operations at the BASF Ludwigshafen plant.

Imports from the US increased the product supply volume as demand continued to increase owing to rising consumption levels in the coating and paint industries as building construction increased. On the back of a spike in demand throughout the region, the pricing trend observed a marginal uptrend. The price in quarter 2 of 2021 in Germany was 746 USD/MT.

The overall market for the chemical witnessed a mixture of sentiments during the third quarter of 2021 in Europe. In September, toluene prices fell as the crude oil market dipped. Demand remained sluggish, and trading was lower in early September, influencing the prices in the quarter. In quarter 3 of 2021, Germany witnessed a downward trend in its price as it reduced from 805 USD/MT to 755 USD/MT in quarter 3.

North America

During quarter one of 2021, the supply was limited as plant operations ceased owing to maintenance requirements. Production lines were affected in the US due to adverse weather conditions and harsh cold. Prices thus increased in the domestic market. The soaring prices of locally produced toluene made conditions difficult for domestic buyers, and they shifted to foreign exports from Asia. Prices were around 910 USD/MT in quarter 1. A noticeable improvement in its supplies as compared to the previous quarter was noted, as the production rates picked up following the aftermath of the Uri storm, which motivated the petrochemical industries to replenish their supply gap.

Demand for the chemical increased in the market, owing to rising consumption levels in the coating and painting industries as building construction increased. As hurricanes were predicted in the US, several spot buyers rushed to increase their toluene stock supplies. By the end of the second quarter, prices had stabilised at $845 USD/MT. In the third quarter of 2021, prices were mostly stable in North America as leading manufacturers of toluene, such as Dow and ExxonMobil, resumed their production of toluene and therefore increased their supply in the market during the third quarter of 2021.

This was followed by a plateau in demand due to unanticipated lockdowns, and thus prices remained mostly stable. As demand from downstream markets was still in the recovery stage, prices were range-bound. The market price increased to 990 USD/MT in the third quarter.
 

Toluene Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

Toluene markets in Asia were severely affected in 2020 by the COVID-19 pandemic as markets failed to recover from its decreasing demand. In China, supplies soared as local traders tried to increase their sales via export channels, which therefore increased the influx of the chemical in Southeast Asia. Further falls in prices were supported by erratic changes in natural gas prices and unstable demand dynamics. The average price was approximately 637 USD/MT.

Europe

As consumption of the chemical dropped in Europe, its market dwindled. Producers were affected by the downward trajectory of its prices and tried to reduce their operating costs. Several turnarounds in downstream plants also affected the demand for toluene. In Germany, prices dropped from 565 USD/MT in quarter 1 to 357 USD/MT in quarter 2 due to the pandemic. However, they rose to 425 USD/MT in the third quarter and remained stable for the rest of the year.

North America

Markets in the US were affected by the high supplies in Asia as well as weather storms and hurricanes that redirected the imports. As transportation increased gradually following the pandemic, the demand also increased. Producers reduced their operating costs, and suppliers relied on export demand. Prices in the US fell from 1000 USD/MT in the first quarter to as low as 780 USD/MT in the final quarter of 2020.

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