Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend and Forecast

Yellow Phosphorus Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Yellow Phosphorous in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

 

Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend for the Q3 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Yellow Phosphorus	Chemicals	China	3089 USD/MT	July'24
Yellow Phosphorus	Chemicals	China	3415 USD/MT	September'24
Yellow Phosphorus	Chemicals	India	4070 USD/MT	July'24
Yellow Phosphorus	Chemicals	India	4066 USD/MT	September'24

Stay updated with the latest Yellow Phosphorus prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

The prices of yellow phosphorus witnessed an inclining trend in the third quarter of 2024. The spot prices in the Chinese yellow phosphorous market were around 3089 USD/MT in July and climbed up to around 3415 USD/MT in September. In Q3'24, the prices of yellow phosphorus showed a steady increase driven by a combination of factors impacting the market. The Chinese government's decision to curb exports in response to dwindling high-grade phosphorite reserves played a significant role in tightening supply.
 

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Additionally, rising production costs and an increasing demand for higher-value phosphorus products further fueled the upward price trend. After an earlier decline, prices for yellow phosphorus began to rise again, reflecting the dynamic shifts within the phosphorus industry. However, as the domestic inventories fatten up with export curbs, the prices are expected to start normalizing in the upcoming months.

The Indian market for yellow phosphorus, on the other hand, showed mixed trends. The prices felt the initial supply pressure and inched up in the first half of the quarter, however domestic supply and demand gap started balancing as the quarter progressed and therefore, the prices also started to normalize later in the quarter giving an overall stable outlook. The prices were around 4070 USD/MT (CIF) in July and after some dynamic fluctuations closed the quarter at around 4066 USD/MT (CIF) in September.

Europe

The prices of yellow phosphorus resembled the trends of the Asian market. The prices wavered with the fluctuations in supply and demand dynamics. The European nations faced serious supply challenges over the past few months fueled by the Red Sea issues and the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine. The supply situation was slightly getting better. The demand from the downstream fertilizer industries handled the demand well for some time. However, the overall outlook still remained mixed for the majority of said time period.

North America

The prices in the North American market resembled the trends in global markets. The market maintained an overall optimistic outlook with ample orders from downstream fertilizer industries amid the planting season. The market faced supply disruptions arising from hurricanes, but the general market sentiments remained moderate for the most of Q3’24.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the prices of yellow phosphorus are expected to normalize in the coming months. The demand from downstream sectors will be a major market driver in the coming quarters. Along with this, the upcoming winter months may pose some mining challenges, which might cause some disruption.
 

Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend for the Q2 of 2024

Asia

In contrast to the global market trend, the prices of yellow phosphorus witnessed a gradual incline in the second quarter of 2024. This hike was particularly influenced by the surge in consumer purchasing activities with the advent of the sowing season in the majority of Asian countries.

In order to further support this surge, the limited influx of the commodity in the markets from the overseas nations as the surging transportation charges and long wait times made them less lucrative for the Asian players. Further, in China, the onset of the holiday season on account of the Dragon Boat Festival and scheduled maintenance of some major production units constrained the supply chains, leading to the northward movement of yellow phosphorus prices.

Europe

The European countries witnessed a bearish tone of the yellow phosphorus market as the prices continued their southward trail throughout the second quarter of 2024. Since the advent of the quarter, the traders felt the pressure of excessive buildup of inventories and falling interest of downstream industries. The weak consumer sentiments were further impacted by the tensions in the Middle East and reduced trading activities, particularly with the Asian countries. Further, the trading activities of the region were also hampered by geopolitical tensions and adverse weather patterns, supporting the weak sentiments of the yellow phosphorus prices.

North America

The frail stance of the downstream industries during the second quarter of 2024 translated to the declining trend of yellow phosphorus prices in North America. Despite the reduced influx of Asian produce, given the extended lead times and escalating cost of production, but still the growth of inventories still outpaced the procurement rates from the downstream industries. Additionally, the number of inquiries from overseas markets, particularly from European countries, declined much more rapidly than anticipated by the trading sector, further altering the pricing trajectory of yellow phosphorus.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Yellow Phosphorus is expected to exhibit a mixed trend around the globe, with Asian countries estimated to showcase gradual growth. Meanwhile, European and American markets might struggle to procure ample quantities of the commodity.
 

Yellow Phosphorous Price Trend for the Q1 of 2024

Product	Category	Region	Price	Time Period
Yellow Phosphorus	Chemicals	China	3223 USD/MT	March 2024
Yellow Phosphorus	Chemicals	Europe	4259 USD/MT	March 2024

Stay updated with the latest Yellow Phosphorus prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Asia

Yellow phosphorous price trend exhibited mixed market sentiments and varied throughout the given time period. In the Indian market, the beginning was a little slow; the inventories were still running high and were able to sufficiently support the downstream demands. Because of this, the prices fell in the Indian market during the first half of the quarter. However, then the market started picking up and the prices increased in the second half of the quarter. These inclines were also motivated by the rise in energy prices.

Overall, the monthly average prices in the Indian market went from about 4275 USD/MT (CIF) in January’24 to around 4259 USD/MT (CIF) in March’24. On the other hand, the sluggish post-COVID economic recovery in China kept the consumer interest trampled in the region. The monthly average spot prices in China went from approx. 3308 USD/MT in January’24 to about 3232 USD/MT in March’24. Hence, an average price performance was experienced in the Asian yellow phosphorous market during Q1’24.

Europe

The yellow phosphorous price trend in the European markets was observed to be wavering low during the first quarter of 2024. Because of the worsening trade situations across the globe, the companies were being very careful with production quantities and incurring costs.

Domestically, the currency depreciation led to a reduced purchasing power. However, the most consequential factor still remained the state of trade in the international markets. European supply chains were still dealing with the consequences of the Russian war when another one broke out in the Middle East. Due to this, the market offtakes for yellow phosphorus took a major blow, and the prices were mostly found to be dwindling low.

North America

In the American yellow phosphorous market, the prices were behaving very similarly to the European markets. Two major wars and the pirate attacks in the Red Sea were disturbing the market sentiments of American consumers and suppliers as well. South-facing demand amidst ample supply volumes was forcing the price trend down. Conclusively, a plunging trend was witnessed in the American yellow phosphorous market as well.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Yellow Phosphorous market prices are expected to continue faltering in the coming months; the market situation will take time to improve.
 

Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend for the October - December of 2023

Asia

The price trend for yellow phosphorus registered mixed trajectories during the fourth quarter of the year 2023. The prices rose well till November, given the intensified prices of feedstock materials amid moderate yet stable demands. However, the price momentum soon deflated as the purchasing enthusiasm shifted towards a need basis, as continuous high prices affected consumer sentiment.

In the wake of the dwindling demand, the hoarded stocks hit the market, causing the prices to fall further. In the Chinese domestic market, the prices averaged around 3539 USD/MT (spot FD) during December’23. The Indian market performed slightly better than the Chinese market, recording a low yet stable price graph with phosphorus yellow prices averaging around 4325 USD/MT (CIF, India) during December’23.

Europe

The dumping of unfairly priced Asian imports in the European markets became a cause of concern for domestic manufacturers and traders. In view of the enhanced competition and moderate to low trading activities, the prices of yellow phosphorus declined throughout the European domestic market towards the end of the said quarter.

North America

In accordance with the European market, the prices of phosphorus yellow in the US domestic market oscillated throughout the said period. Initially, the prices kept high owing to heightened demand ahead of the planting season. However, soon, the price trend shifted and turned negative, given the enhanced competition owing to cheap Asian imports and loss of consumer enthusiasm.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for phosphorus yellow are likely to remain volatile in the coming quarter, given the current market fundamentals and uncertain downstream demands.
 

Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend for the July - September of 2023

Asia

After a slight stumble in the early days of the third quarter, the yellow phosphorus price trend stabilized towards the end. In the initial days, the underperformance of the downstream industries and a significant lack of inquiries worried the manufacturers and traders of yellow phosphorus.

Amid the struggling business sector, the traders had to lower their profit margins, and thus, the overall price graph of yellow phosphorus moved southwards. The month of September brought positive winds as the sales and overall dynamics of the pesticide and fertilizer industries improved in favor of the yellow phosphorus price graph.

Europe

In European countries, the market conditions and sluggish behavior of the downstream agriculture sector forced the yellow phosphorus price trend to follow a bearish trajectory. The inflation and oscillating cost of raw materials posed a struggle for the manufacturers. Further, the rising cost of energy production proved to be the last straw in the sack and resulted in the downward movement of yellow phosphorus price trend. The decline was further accelerated by the depreciation in the industrial sector, which ultimately kept the yellow phosphorus price trend in the downward direction.

North America

In North America, the yellow phosphorus prices plunged in the first half of the said quarter. The demand outlook from the downstream industries did not look to be working in favor of the yellow phosphorus price trend, and a lower number of inquiries thus led to the southward trajectory of the yellow phosphorus price graph. The import of expensive goods somewhat reversed the direction of the yellow phosphorus price trend, but the falling demand and rise in inventories caused a decline in the yellow phosphorus price trend.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend of Wheat are estimated to follow a fluctuating trajectory as the uncertain downstream demands and inventory levels raise the skepticism of buyers worldwide.
 

Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

Asia

Asian Yellow Phosphorus market observed fluctuating price trend. As the downstream industries registered feverish demands, queries from both domestic and international markets plummeted. Further, the declining freight and crude oil prices reduced the upstream cost pressure. Overall low hinging price trend were observed for Yellow Phosphorus. The spot prices went from around 4845 USD/MT in January to around 3232 USD/MT in June’23.

Europe

European Yellow Phosphorus market observed low swinging price trend in the European region during the said period. Market demands from downstream sectors remained bearish, pushing the prices down. But it was declining feedstock costs that primarily influenced the falling prices of Yellow Phosphorus. Market trend were still oscillating around a similar range in Q1 as the port congestions around European shores were keeping the freight charges up, but as Q2 approached and the freight issues were resolved, and thus, the prices kept plunging for the rest of the said period.

North America

Mixed price sentiments were observed for Yellow Phosphorus in the American market during the first two quarters of 2023. Prices varied in accordance with the demand patterns from the downstream fertilizer and EV sectors. The first months of each quarter saw rising demands pulling the prices up. However, the prices declined towards the end of the said period as demand declined, leading to stockpiling of products in the market.

Analyst Insight

According to the Procurement Resource, the Yellow Phosphorus prices are expected to fluctuate on the lower end of the price curve, as the upstream costs are declining consistently. Further, the present inventories can support immediate product requirements from downstream sectors.
 

Yellow Phosphorus Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

Asia

Asian market observed a very mixed price pattern for Yellow Phosphorus in H2 2022. The reopening of industries after a series of covid mandated shutdowns caused the manufacturers to churn out products at a much faster rate. The downstream demand was uncertain causing turbulent pricing patterns in the Chinese domestic market. The prices of yellow phosphorus recorded dwindling trend given the falling demand and low upstream cost pressure. However, some positive fluctuations were seen towards the end of December’22, but overall, the prices kept towards the lower end.

Europe

Europe witnessed an oscillating but almost stagnant pricing pattern for yellow phosphorus in the said period. Recession-like conditions clouded the economic exchanges to a great degree, slowed down industrial production and curtailed the supply chains. The addendum of these factors led to demand destruction, thereby greatly impacting the market sentiments.

North America

Contrary to the Asian and European markets, yellow phosphorus prices hovered at the higher end of the scale in the US domestic market. As most of the supplies were import-dependent, the upstream costs remained high during Q3 and in early Q4. But during the mid-Q4 the present inventories were able to support the existing sluggish demand. Hence, the prices slid down towards the end of the fourth quarter.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the price trend for yellow phosphorus are expected to stay oscillating and muted in the upcoming period. As the demand dynamics do not look very promising, the present inventories will be able to meet the requirements thereby stabilizing the market trend.
 

Yellow Phosphorous Price Trend for the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

The prices of yellow phosphorous remained firm in the Chinese domestic market. With the removal of zero-tolerance covid protocols by the government, the factories renewed production. However, the operating rates were not at the optimum levels given raised feedstock prices, unavailability of phosphate rock, expensive logistics and port congestions.

The depleted inventories and the increased demand from the downstream industries further supported the raised quotations from the sellers. The price of yellow phosphorous averaged 5792.38 USD/MT (Spot FD) in April in the Chinese domestic market. The price trend for yellow phosphorous stabilized slightly towards the end of said period owing to relaxed upstream costs averaging 5631.89 USD/MT (Spot FD) in June 2022.

Europe

With the European embargo on Russian oil coupled with the western sanctions against Russian exports, the prices of commodities surged in the international market. Russia and Belarus being major exports of phosphates and fertilizers in the world halted their precious supply to Europe. Hence, this massive gap in the market demand and supply caused the prices of yellow phosphorous to soar uncontrollably. The price of yellow phosphorous averaged 5970 USD/MT during the said period.

North America

The sanctions against Russian exports along with the Chinese government temporarily ban on fertilizer exports citing domestic reasons caused the prices of yellow phosphorous to surge in the US domestic market. The adverse droughts like climatic conditions prompted an excessive rise in the demand for fertilizers, hence the yellow phosphorous prices surged, averaging 5980 USD/MT towards the end of June 2022.
 

Yellow Phosphorous Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

The average price of yellow phosphorus was valued at 37000 RMB/MT in March 2022 in China.The yellow phosphorus market continued to expand. The trading mood was generally positive, but items were in short supply. The upstream phosphate rock was in high demand while the raw materials were in short supply. Inquiries from downstream were increasing, necessitating replenishment. Overall, market confidence was high, upstream and downstream support was robust, and new order transaction prices were higher.
 

Yellow Phosphorous Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

In the fourth quarter of 2021, the prices decreased. The market as a whole was generally deserted, the downstream wait-and-see attitude was strong, and the phosphorus yellow market was weak and dropping in volume. Generally, inquiries were made only on the basis of demand. Due to a decline in domestic production of yellow phosphorus, China's producers imported a certain amount from Vietnam. The increase in short-term demand increased the FOB prices in Vietnam.

After nearly two months of bullishness, yellow phosphorous prices in Vietnam finally stabilised. Prices for December were hovering around 7,500 USD/MT. The chemical’s market prospects in Vietnam improved significantly after Chinese authorities' production restrictions and stringent power curtailment measures reduced the country's phosphorus production to half of what it was last year. Prices in Vietnam increased by almost 70% in November compared to the beginning of the year. Yellow phosphorous prices reached new heights as a result of surging Chinese coal prices and low product stocks reported by Asian purchasers.

Europe

The European market for yellow phosphorus had some respite in the fourth quarter of 2021, as bids from Southeast Asian and Chinese providers relaxed as freight expenses were reduced and operational rates in China recovered significantly. However, the raw material market in Europe had been severely hit by the ongoing energy crisis, and Russian authorities' export quotas had created fears about a supply glut in the downstream fertiliser and batteries electrolytes industries. As a result of this ripple effect, offers on the European domestic market remained stable until the fourth quarter of 2021.

North America

The market in North America stabilised after surging to an all-time high at 7.33 USD/kg in October to 6.33 USD/kg by December end due to cost support from high freight rates. However, the domestic market in the United States remained buoyant due to seasonal demand from downstream fertilisers and EV batteries end-use sectors.

Whereas supplies were constrained by delayed delivery from Southeast Asia, and several authorities worldwide restricted the export of ammonia and phosphate-based fertilisers, the growing food price index boosted yellow phosphorus market sentiments in the US domestic market. In November, a prominent participant in the United States imported 240 tonnes of the chemical on a contractual basis at a price of 4700 USD/MT.

South America

China is a major supplier of fertilisers, supplying urea and phosphates to the agricultural sector, which are critical inputs for maize and soybean production in North and South America. Export restrictions are anticipated to further constrain supplies and raise prices, increasing farmers' input costs or forcing some to grow without fertilisers, thereby reducing yields.

Brazilian farmers are also suffering considerable cost pressures from growing input costs, which are being exacerbated by a mix of increased demand, rising inland freight rates, and supply shortages. Brazilian producers, particularly those who grow soybeans, are also concerned about the supply of glyphosate, with yellow phosphorus serving as a major component in the herbicide's manufacturing.
 

Yellow Phosphorous Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

In January 2021, the average price increased by 2.01% to 16,900 RMB/MT. The domestic phosphate ore market was generally stable in terms of raw materials. Entrepreneurs primarily fulfilled pre-orders and tightened pricing operations. The price increase could be attributed to people's cautious reaction to the resurgence of the COVID-19 wave. Companies producing the chemical were averse to selling and insisted on high-priced operations.

Yellow phosphorous prices decreased the following March due to a lack of market demand. It was priced at 28,000 RMB/MT in September 2021. With the publication of the Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission's Notification on Energy Consumption Control on September 11, the price skyrocketed to 65,000 RMB/MT.

This was due to the fact that its production in China is concentrated in the south-western provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Hubei which uses hydroelectric power generation as the primary source of electricity. The dry season in Yunnan was longer than previous years (December to May), due to which electricity generation was impacted.

In May 2021, Yunnan's power restrictions deteriorated again, affecting a sizable portion of the yellow phosphorus market, which was forced to reduce or stagger production. With this backdrop, yellow phosphorous prices began to noticeably increase in mid-May, intensifying market supply tensions as the market essentially lacked sufficient inventory to meet demand.

Europe

Due to the start of the spring season in Europe, demand for Diammonium Phosphate increased significantly in the agricultural sector. This increase in demand, both domestically and internationally, resulted in an increase in the price of yellow phosphorus, a critical raw material for DAP. In the second quarter of 2021, increased global demand for diammonium phosphate drove yellow phosphorous prices higher in Europe. Additionally, during Q3 2021, a surge in the global market for phosphoric acid impacted yellow phosphorous prices in Europe.

North America

Glyphosate prices in the United States have more than doubled since last year. Yellow phosphorus is a key component in the manufacture of glyphosate. Inflationary pressures were being driven by two factors. The first was Hurricane Ida, which hit Louisiana in August, a place which produces yellow phosphorus. The second factor was China's full-fledged energy crisis.

Yellow phosphorous prices increased exponentially from 3.6 USD/kg in January to 6.57 USD/kg by September end and further to 7.33 USD/Kg in October.

Latin America

The demand from downstream fertiliser producers was strong during the second quarter, as the domestic agriculture sector expanded in May and June. Additionally, significant demand for DAP from European and Asian countries increased worldwide phosphorus consumption, which aided in the rising trend of the product's pricing curve. Yellow phosphorous prices increased significantly in the third quarter of 2021 in the South American region, owing to persistent demand for agricultural products. The trend in the pricing of phosphate-based fertilisers was upward across the region, owing to the increase in the price of the chemical.
 

Yellow Phosphorous Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

China is the world's largest producer of yellow phosphorus, with an installed capacity of 1.48 million tonnes. Additionally, it is the world's largest supplier. The production in China is concentrated in the South-Western provinces of Yunnan, Sichuan, Guizhou, and Hubei. Yellow phosphorous prices decreased in March 2020. At the beginning of the month, the average price was 17,700 RMB/MT, while at the end of the month, the average price was 16,500 RMB/MT.

The price decreased by 6.78% during the month. This reduction was attributed to a lack of downstream demand. The phosphate market's operating rate was also low. In July 2020, the price of phosphorus yellow in the Yunnan-Guizhou area increased by 2.74%, to 15,000 RMB/MT, as industries resumed operations following a lengthy shutdown. Following that, prices remained relatively stable for a year.

Europe

The demand in Europe remained modest, despite the fact that it is a critical feedstock for the manufacture of fertilisers. Due to transportation constraints and the spread of COVID 19, agrochemical production remained minimal. Strong demand during the spring season resulted in increased imports and prices by the end of Q4 2020.

North America

The United States of America is the world's second largest producer of yellow phosphorus. Its prices increased in early Q4 2020 due to a supply shortage. The shortage was caused by a decrease in production as a result of hurricane damage in October.

In January the price stood at 2.55 USD/kg which was quite stable with a gradual decline during the first two quarters post which, the prices recovered for the next two quarters reaching a year-end value of 2.59 USD/kg.

Latin America

Phosphorous demand increased as a result of good agricultural production in the United States. With numerous government programmes aimed at reviving the struggling economy, demand remained significantly higher than producer forecasts. South American sales remained constant in Q4 2020, with product prices maintained at higher levels to offset recent losses. Traded volumes remained constant as the fertiliser market was impacted by fewer phosphoric acid exports due to port congestion near the quarter's end.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Yellow Phosphorus. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.