China is anticipated to ramp up soybean imports significantly in the second quarter of 2025

China is poised to receive record soybean imports in the second quarter, with analysts forecasting 31.3 million metric tons from April to June, marking a 4.6% increase year-on-year. This surge follows a five-year low of 5.27 million tons in March, caused by delayed Brazilian shipments and slower customs clearances that have led to supply shortages. Some processors have had to suspend operations due to the lack of raw materials.

The current tight supply situation stems from reduced purchases from the United States amid trade tensions and a slower-than-expected Brazilian harvest. Additional pressure was applied when China imposed retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products. Port inventories plummeted to around 4 million tons in March, representing a 19% decline from the previous year.

Brazilian soybeans, however, have maintained a competitive price, prompting Chinese crushers to source aggressively from the South American country. Consequently, processing margins in key regions like Rizhao have surged above 450 yuan per ton (USD 62/ton). Although Brazilian shipments are expected to accelerate in April, providing some relief, customs inspection delays continue to exacerbate supply constraints.

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China's increased quality inspections on imported soybeans have extended the clearing process, with cargo discharge now taking 20 to 25 days, compared to the usual 15 days. The country’s 2024 soybean imports are projected to reach a record 105 million tons, driven by strong crushing demand and precautionary stockpiling, further tightening inventories and underscoring the critical role of Brazilian shipments in stabilizing the market.