Amidst Expanding LNG projects, US Natural gas exports anticipated to rise up to 13.5 Bcf/d in 2024

The United States has become the net exporter of natural gas due to the increasing liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. The United States is ranked among the top three nations in exporting LNG, including Qatar and Australia. The country's position has risen significantly in the global LNG market due to the rapid growth in exports of LNG facilitated by new export terminals established in 2016. Moreover, this growth is expected to drift northward further as two new LNG liquefaction projects will be operational in 2024.

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Based on the present state of the global natural gas market, it is favouring the United States LNG exports. The country is standing in an advantageous position due to rising prices of natural gas in European and Asian regions as compared to the prices of the U.S.

As per the Short-term Energy outlook, it is expected that the LNG exports from the U.S. will replace the pipeline natural gas that was previously exported from Russia to Europe. Additionally, the limited growth in the global LNG export capacity is anticipated to increase the demand for LNG supplies from the U.S. to cater to global demand. Furthermore, this is a significant opportunity for the U.S. to strengthen its stand in the international LNG market and to meet the demands of consumers worldwide.

According to latest projections, an average of 12.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of LNG is expected to be exported from the U.S. in 2023, which is further expected to increase to 13.3 Bcf/d in 2024. This increase can be majorly credited to the expected commencement of operation of the new LNG export projects, the Golden Pass and Plaquemine’s project. It is worth noting that the evaluation of the LNG export capacity can be conducted in two ways such as nominal capacity and peak capacity.

The Nominal Capacity refers to the volume of LNG produced during the normal operating conditions in the calendar year as designed by facility. On the other hand, peak capacity represents the volume of LNG manufactured under normal operating conditions. Normally, LNG exports facilities exceeded their normal capacity by 100 percent and fall at the level of 100 percent of their peak capacity.

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The recent forecast projected that 105 percent of the nominal capacity of the U.S. LNG export will be used in 2023, and in 2024 it is expected to reach 108 percent. However, there are still some uncertainties based on the projects' timelines to be operational and the pace at which they will increase their exports.

According to Procurement Resource, it is predicted that the United States natural gas will rise to 13.3 Bcf/d in 2024 from 12 Bcf/d, the expected export of 2023. This increase is attributed to the new ongoing projects, the Golden Pass and Plaquemine projects, which are expected to be operational in 2024.