Tin Price Trend and Forecast

Tin Regional Price Overview

Get the latest insights on price movement and trend analysis of Tin in different regions across the world (Asia, Europe, North America, Latin America, and the Middle East & Africa).

Tin Price Trend for the First Half of 2024

Stay updated with the latest Tin prices, historical data, and tailored regional analysis
 

Tin market performance has been quite positive throughout the first two quarters of the year 2024. In Asia, the tin market trends were majorly driven by the supply chain constrictions caused by the mining and export ban in the Wa region of Myanmar, which bears the weight of around one-sixth of global tin supplies. As per ITA (International Tin Association), despite a recent tax policy change in Wa state, Myanmar, the tin mines in the Man Maw mining area remain closed. Myanmar introduced a 30 percent in-kind tax in February on all grades of tin concentrate exports following the closure of several mines last year for conservation and pollution-reduction reasons.

In the Indian market, the monthly average prices went from about 29179 USD/MT (CIF, Ingots, 99.9%) in April '24 to around 29900 USD/MT in June '24. Furthermore, significant delays in Indonesian exports, with almost no trading activity observed on either the ICDX (Indonesia Commodity Derivatives Exchange) or JFX (Jakarta Futures Exchange) since the beginning of the year, have been pressurizing the tin's price trajectories over the said quarter.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, the Tin prices are anticipated to continue rising in the coming months as well. Since the alarming supply situation amidst rapidly depleting inventories will guide tin prices upwards.
 

Tin Price Trend for the Second Half of 2023

Tin’s market performance was quite mixed during the second half of the year 2023. Quarter three started on a humble note in the Indian market as the prices faced southwards initially; supply dominated demands in the early months of the said span. However, as the tin supplies tightened in the international markets it impacted the prices in the Indian market as well. The middle of the fourth quarter saw tin prices escalating in the Indian market.
 

Tin Price Chart

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Similarly, in the European markets, after sliding down in the first couple of months beginning in July, the prices were seen regaining momentum in the latter half of the fourth quarter. Several factors were responsible for this tightening of tin supplies. Myanmar imposed a ban on tin mining, and Indonesia stopped exporting tin. These events disrupted tin supply chains and created a supply deficit. Consumer nations turned to countries like Congo for substituting purchases. However, the disrupted market situation continued for the rest of the year.

Analyst Insight

According to Procurement Resource, Tin prices are likely to surge in the coming quarters as the supply constraints are likely to persist longer in the coming months.
 

Tin Price Trend for the First Half of 2023

The price trend of tin showcased signs of improvement in the first and second quarters of 2023. The major causes of this inclining trajectory of prices were the strong demand for the product globally amid restricted supply. The supply chains were depleted, which resulted in a decline in the level of inventories that eventually supported the price trend of tin in the global market.

In the Asia-Pacific region specifically, several production plants underwent maintenance in the second quarter, further affecting the supply chains in the region, but the available inventories were able to cater to the declining demand from the end-user industries.

However, the major cause of concern for the growth of tin prices was the oscillations observed in the electronics market, which is its key market driver. The semiconductors and electronics market showcased a slow recovery phase that hampered the overall demand outlook of tin.

Analyst Insight

According to procurement resources, the price trend of Tin is expected to depict a fluctuating trajectory as the semiconductors market is moving feebly, and the disrupted supply chains are estimated to cause oscillations in the tin market.
 

Tin Price Trend for the Second Half of 2022

In the third and fourth quarters of 2022, the price trend of tin dipped significantly, especially in the month of October. During the COVID phase, the demand for tin increased due to the rise in the number of sales of the electronics and semiconductors industries, which are the key market drivers of tin. But when the world set its path of recovery from the pandemic, the demand for tin slid, and as a result, the price trend of tin declined in the third and fourth quarters of 2022.

In addition to this, the rising rates of global inflation and interest to keep the market activities afloat and the sluggish condition of the economy further negatively affected the price trend of tin. Among the other metal markets, the market activities of tin were particularly hostile as the trading volumes showcased serious fluctuations. Additionally, the governments of several nations adopted strict monetary policies to sustain their economic conditions, which eventually resulted in the decline in the price trend of tin.

Analyst Insight

According to procurement resources, the price trend of Tin is expected to depict a negative trajectory as the demand for tin will be affected by the weak economic conditions of the global market.
 

Tin Price Trend for the Second Quarter of 2022

Asia

Looking back on tin prices as we enter the middle of 2022, we can see that in March, tin prices reached a record high of 395,000 RMB/MTbefore losing the gains in May. Many tin smelters had undergone renovations as a result of falling pricing.

Prices of the metal on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) decreased in the second quarter of 2022. The market for non-ferrous metals was usually struggling. The SFE saw the biggest declines in tin and nickel futures.

The main cause was the U.S. dollar index's overnight surge, which saw it reach its highest level in almost 20 years. The abrupt decline in U.S. stocks has had a significant impact on market sentiment. Tin sales on the SFE were priced much lower in June due to pressure on the non-ferrous market as a whole.

Europe

Tin prices dropped sharply in Q2 of 2022. The price of three-month metal on the London Metal Exchange (LME) dropped to a one-year low of 30,405 USD/MT in June, continuing a sharp decline from March's record high of 51,000 USD.

Since the end of June, prices have declined by more than 50% from their March record highs, reaching their lowest levels in more than a year. In the week ending June 24, the tin contract traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 22%, marking its biggest weekly decline since at least 2005.

In Rotterdam, the metal traded at a premium of 1,150 USD/MT in July 2022 over LME cash as opposed to a peak of 1,750 USD/MT in July 2021.
 

Tin Price Trend For the First Quarter of 2022

Asia

In China's domestic spot tin market, the mainstream quotation range for tin ingot was 346,500-348,500 RMB/MT, with an average price of 347,500 RMB/MT. There was a lot of pressure on the metal market. Fundamentally, present market supply is still tight, market transaction is general, tin price is relatively high, downstream procurement is still on-demand, and overall transaction condition is average.

Europe

The price of tin in London fell 0.63%, while the price of tin in Shanghai fell 0.52%. On February 17, the London Metal Exchange three-month spot tin price was 43,955 USD/MT, down marginally from the record high of 44,250 USD/MT set on February 10. Short-term supply concerns from Indonesia added momentum to an already chronically undersupplied market, pushing tin prices to new record highs this year.

Tin prices will continue to rise in the coming years as demand remains strong and continues to outpace supply.The three-month price on the London Metal Exchange closed at 49,500 USD/MT in March 2022, mirroring the volatility in the broader commodities market amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
 

Tin Price Trend For the Fourth Quarter of 2021

Asia

Tin prices in worldwide markets fell over 5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, retreating from record highs. The price of soldering metal is expected to remain stable in 2022 and in the long term. Tin for March delivery ended lower on the Shanghai Metal Exchange on January 28 at 329,600 RMB/MT.  Tin struck a new high this year, and with a year-to-date profit of about 80%, it was the strongest performer in the base metals market.

The spectacular rise in the prices had been mostly owing to extraordinarily positive supply/demand dynamics in a mixed macroeconomic environment. On the supply side, the Covid-19 outbreak caused lockdowns and output reductions in key tin-producing countries like as Indonesia and Malaysia. It also hampered concentrate supply, particularly in Myanmar, the world's largest producer, where Covid-19 restrictions stifled the flow of raw materials to Chinese smelters. In China, a heat wave and energy usage limitations hit Yunnan province earlier this year, putting a damper on smelting activities.

Europe

In Q-4, tin prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) closed at 41,684 USD/MT for a three-month contract. The metal hit a new high before easing off, driven by low stockpiles, which indicated limited supply, and China's efforts to stimulate its economy, which lifted demand expectations. When trading resumed at 1300 GMT in China, prices fell from their highs, despite promises of government support for the property sector, which was facing a debt crisis.

North America

Tin prices reached a high of 39,159 USD/MT in November 2021, up 79% from the year before. The increase was fueled by a shortfall caused by increased need from the electronics industry, where it is used in circuit board manufacture, and total metal output was inadequate. However, because of the exorbitant cost of energy resources, prices will not revert to pre-pandemic levels.  Following record-breaking tin premiums in 2021, the price estimate for 2022 is marginally milder, as ongoing demand growth encourages additional investment to boost metal supply.
 

Tin Price Trend For First, Second and Third Quarters of 2021

Asia

Metal demand surged in India as a result of the outbreak, but shipment delays wreaked havoc on supplies. Prices remained solid through the end of the year, owing to tight supply, strong demand, and low stockpiles. The prices increased by over 50% since the outset of the year. Prices rose due to rising demand for consumer electronics, cellphones, and electric vehicles (EVs), with lead-acid batteries accounting for the majority of the increase, as well as growing application in lithium-ion batteries and electronic solders.

Exports from Indonesia, the world's largest exporter and second-largest manufacturer of the metal, fell 24% in the first quarter of this year, owing to a scarcity of shipping containers and bottlenecks. Similar supply concerns existed in China, the world's largest producer, and Congo, boosting tin prices. The lack of mining potential was attributable to inadequate investment rather than a scarcity of tin on earth.

Europe

In April of this year, the stocks were down 76% from the same month the previous year. Tin prices on the London Metal Exchange reached a peak of 32,975 USD/MT in May 2021, which then fell to 30,364 USD/MT for a three-month contract. Tin for cash, on the other hand, was priced accordingly at 32,079 USD/MT, owing to a shortage of supplies.

High prices were the result of excellent long-term demand prospects driven by the electronics sector's expansion and the growing use of electronics in electric vehicles.

North America

The prices rose to 2011 levels due to a lack of supply. The mean tin prices were anticipated to rise to 23,000 USD/MT, up from 19,500 USD previously. China stated that it would dump reserve stocks to lower non-ferrous metal prices, however, the ITA claimed that this would not affect tin prices because China's strategic reserve agency had no stock.  In terms of price, tin was the finest-performing base metal this year, with prices nearly tripling since the epidemic trough to set new highs in late September. The market is currently in backwardation, and supply problems are projected to continue.
 

Tin Price Trend For the Year 2020

Asia

The Covid epidemic was the primary driver of the metal’s pricing, since supply constraints resulted from lockdowns to control the spread, mainly in Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for 30% of worldwide refined tin output. Tin's bull run began in November 2019, when Indonesia announced plans to limit the soldering metal's exports as part of an effort to attract investment in downstream businesses.

China was the largest buyer, with 181,000 MT, followed by the United States, with 30,000 MT. Shipments declined by 1.9% to 186,000 MT in 2020, compared to 196,000 MT in 2019. Indonesia was the leading provider, producing 65,000 MT of finished tin, accounting for 35% of the market.

Europe

Futures London Metal Exchange (LME) prices soared over 25%, reaching nine-year highs around 25,000 USD/MT in 2020. Spot prices rose even faster than futures prices, with short-term supply contracts trading at historically high premium costs to longer-dated price levels. While pressure in the physical market prompted the move, several dealers questioned if the LME's open-outcry trading floor's closure and changeover to electronic trading had worsened the instability.

North America

Tin traders faced severe shortages in the metal market as Covid-19 spurred a jump in demand with limited supply. Major investors took notice of the turbulence, which previously had been overlooked by the crucial but illiquid metal. During the work-from-home era, demand for the metal, which is used in soldering, rose dramatically. With mine output and shipping channels disrupted, key European and American consumers were scurrying for metal as warehouses run empty.

Procurement Resource provides latest prices of Tin. Each price database is tied to a user-friendly graphing tool dating back to 2014, which provides a range of functionalities: configuration of price series over user defined time period; comparison of product movements across countries; customisation of price currencies and unit; extraction of price data as excel files to be used offline.